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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You wouldn't have gotten the warm sector QPF though either ;).  So many high PWAT intrusions south of the warm fronts in events this season... but yeah if you moved the snow that's fallen up here, down there then 100+ seems like a good bet.

Then again it's funny in hindsight because if someone said gimme near normal temps and way above normal precip like this year, you'd take the over on snowfall.

Near normal temps? You were BN and that's why you are buried.

90dTDeptNRCC.png

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3 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Nice succinct summary from last week.

Wonder if this is finally a turning point. For Feb 27-28 Euro and EPS start to finally build a west coast ridge that looks to last through D10. It's not robust yet for Feb 27-28 and we need help of that little weak blocking that Will mentioned to get that track under us.

Yeah... I'm a little apprehensive ... admittedly, do to that persistence... But, in my 25 years of being privy to Meteorological concepts and exposure to the field, both for science and "art" ... I have rarely seen persistence last more than 90 days.   2012 came close but the season in fact entered modulation toward spring prior to testing that ... This year is trying to broach that extent prior to winter being over and low and behold... we have a something sniffing out ..right about on the deadline...  Perhaps a more profound mass-field change ...entering the last week of this month.

So we'll see... Like I said earlier today, ... the 27th isn't impossible .. My biggest points of contention with that first in probably a series is that the Euro is on its own ... forgot about that, but more specifically, the Euro tends to spuriously deepen troughs when spitting then E out of 100 ... 90 W or so, passing from mid to extended range. It seems to do this regardless of antecedent dailies in the run, too.  Just all the sudden, a subtle curvature over Iowa turns into a negative tilted menaces in NE and this smells a bit like that.  That's all A.   B, heights over the deep south and SE are running a bit lofty to allow a negative turner to close off over the Del Marva like that.  Although ... I see the Euro keeps it rollin' right along and it's a fast movers ... I'll give it that... nonetheless, prior to that even happening, the heights in the south are in a destructive interference with that wave space and it should actually be getting damped ... not strengthened, as it's slipping through to the north.  Sure is eye-candy though...

But that's as is....?   Yeah, lower the heights a tad in the south... weaken that inhibition.  Pop the backside ridge in the west a little more.  Doable also... If the NAO also materializes more than a mere modest 530 dm height node over the lower D. straight region..that would also help.  All of these adjustments are within reach... 

Over all I'm liking the the last week of the month into the first week of March and probably after too... This EPO is much more supported cross-guidance species/sources... and perhaps most important of all, the PNA shifting signs may mean less loading the trough over the Great Basin with the EPO strengths in negative sign.

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3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I could have swore I saw before that when Hawaii gets flooding rain and storms in winter, we get hit a week later. But I could be completely  wrong!

Happened in 2005...:ph34r:

I had just moved in for my semester there and we had severe storm on O'ahu. Less than two weeks later James began writing chapter 1 of his novel. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Near normal temps? You were BN and that's why you are buried.

90dTDeptNRCC.png

Ginxy I thought we were talking about SNE... or at least where Pickles was. 

-2F to +2F across New England for the most part...but I think the departures are likely influenced by deep snow cover too.  The places below normal have generally had consistent snow cover since mid-November...Adirondacks, northern half of VT & NH and Maine away from the coast.

It's interesting to see that deep snow cover likely feedback into colder nights and more surface cold in WAA events.  Hard to tell what came first, the chicken or the egg.  Is the snow a result of the below normal temps, or are the below normal temps a result of the snow?

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2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You kno what’s funny ...if that pacific ridging had been hundreds of miles east this winter and we had a +PNA w STJ action we would probably be over 100” . Gimme 15-20” QPF and a +PNA -EPO and I’ll take the over on snow Dec-Mar 

That was 2015.

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5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Great some cryptic sh*t that a handful of people understand.

Hopefully we get something decent 

Sam was a kid growing up in Keene, NH who was a whiz at meteorology from the get go. He was a big snow lover but probably a bigger severe lover. He got his degree and the went to Oklahoma for post grad. I think his name here is OKPowdah. He used to draw snow maps that always seemed to have a “phallic” look to the contours. If you look at that clown map, you can see the darker blue shading also has that look. 

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18z euro goes out to 90 hours and the ensembles go to 144. So we can't even entertain the D8 storm on that run. 

The next two storms look like typical garbage. 1-2" tomorrow night for SNE before sleet and ice interior. Next one looks warmer but still has the CAD at sfc. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro goes out to 90 hours and the ensembles go to 144. So we can't even entertain the D8 storm on that run. 

The next two storms look like typical garbage. 1-2" tomorrow night for SNE before sleet and ice interior. Next one looks warmer but still has the CAD at sfc. 

Yeah...I was looking more for info on the two systems incoming. I thought 18z was shorter range

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro goes out to 90 hours and the ensembles go to 144. So we can't even entertain the D8 storm on that run. 

The next two storms look like typical garbage. 1-2" tomorrow night for SNE before sleet and ice interior. Next one looks warmer but still has the CAD at sfc. 

Nice interior ice event maybe for Sunday? Please? Lots of insolation this time of year though.

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