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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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Just now, Spanks45 said:

We take...Can this please be one of these systems that the EURO sees way out in time and keep it the whole way through? The days of the old EURO. I guess what I am saying, is this a thread the needle deal 8 days out? Because we know how this will end up if it is.

Maybe if it was day 5-6, I'd think about it....but D8 on the euro isn't really any better than D8 on the GFS...mabe slightly, but they are all clowns at that range. They just might be wearing different clothes.

All the guidance has a system around that time frame though....the reason the Euro is so good is because there is a weak NAO block near the Davis strait that forces that shortwave underneath us so we get a more classic Miller B redevelopment. There's also at least a hint of ridging out west too, but most of that solution is owed the to the weak Davis strait block.

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe if it was day 5-6, I'd think about it....but D8 on the euro isn't really any better than D8 on the GFS...mabe slightly, but they are all clowns at that range. They just might be wearing different clothes.

All the guidance has a system around that time frame though....the reason the Euro is so good is because there is a weak NAO block near the Davis strait that forces that shortwave underneath us so we get a more classic Miller B redevelopment. There's also at least a hint of ridging out west too, but most of that solution is owed the to the weak Davis strait block.

 

I think this one has a decent shot.

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12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s a Boxing Day track on the euro

Near us it is, but the development is quite a bit different. Boxing Day was a miller A storm that had the maximum intensification too far southwest to give us the max goods. This one is a miller B that nukes out in a good spot for us....but yeah, they do both track near the outer Cape.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe if it was day 5-6, I'd think about it....but D8 on the euro isn't really any better than D8 on the GFS...mabe slightly, but they are all clowns at that range. They just might be wearing different clothes.

All the guidance has a system around that time frame though....the reason the Euro is so good is because there is a weak NAO block near the Davis strait that forces that shortwave underneath us so we get a more classic Miller B redevelopment. There's also at least a hint of ridging out west too, but most of that solution is owed the to the weak Davis strait block.

 

Fair enough, thanks! It is nice to see it at day 8 rather than 10... I feel like the Euro has had a few day 10 "biggies", nothing around 8, at least it has that going for it. EURO + BLOCKY patterns might help it in forecasting ability, pulling that from the weenie handbook.:thumbsup:

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It's a bit early ... but doable.  

The "corrective event" I was speaking about was more into that first week of March (nearer side of ..) ...say, 2, 3 or 4th ... But, the 27 may pan in there with that -EPO happening in tandem with the PNA rising so smartly as it is in both model systems. 

I'm not sure I see a lot of -NAO in that Euro run though...  Their is a "semblance" of lower D. Straight blocking ...yeah, but it's magnitude? Heh... it is < 530 dm, which isn't a very significant positive SD, not nearly enough to transitively instruct amplitude in the western OV like that ... 

I would suggest this particular rendition the Euro is sellin' is more an artifice of that model magically coring out troughs beyond D7 too liberally like it does so often.. 

 

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54 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Been feast or famine on ratios this season.

Mostly famine - other than yesterday's little fluffy surprise, I haven't had anything reach 15:1, and very few even 10:1.  Lots around 8:1 not even counting the ZR.  Pretty amazing to get as much snow as we've had here with modest ratios and frequent taint.

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Just now, tamarack said:

Mostly famine - other than yesterday's little fluffy surprise, I haven't had anything reach 15:1, and very few even 10:1.  Lots around 8:1 not even counting the ZR.  Pretty amazing to get as much snow as we've had here with modest ratios and frequent taint.

Yeah, My thoughts were the same, We would be well ahead if we stayed away from the taint and higher ratios, This next one could put me right at seasonal avg so anything thereafter will be bonus time.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Yeah, My thoughts were the same, We would be well ahead if we stayed away from the taint and higher ratios, This next one could put me right at seasonal avg so anything thereafter will be bonus time.

Maybe your climo average  ;)
In the 8 years that Kevin W has run the snow table, I've averaged more than you - no surprise given our respective locales - with an average of 94.0" (4" above my 20-yr and Farmington's 125-year averages) to your measly 93.6".
As noted before, this year's latitudinal gradient resembles 2007-08 but shifted a full degree or more northward.

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EPS pretty much went wild for their whole run...multiple storm chances even after the Feb 27 threat. Prob the best run all winter actually in terms of pattern and storm look. Arctic cold in there too....don't be surprised at a brutal outbreak or two.

 

Winter's last run at a weak Nino pattern that hasn't been able to develop this season....maybe we get our fun two or three weeks....or maybe this is just the final Lucy football act.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

EPS pretty much went wild for their whole run...multiple storm chances even after the Feb 27 threat. Prob the best run all winter actually in terms of pattern and storm look. Arctic cold in there too....don't be surprised at a brutal outbreak or two.

 

Winter's last run at a weak Nino pattern that hasn't been able to develop this season....maybe we get our fun two or three weeks....or maybe this is just the final Lucy football act.

back end winter

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Just now, Hoth said:

Geez, totally missed how fast the jet is upstairs right now. Screaming along.

I was watching my flight radar app last night as some of the planes flying to Europe or just headed east towards the East Coast were showing ground speeds in excess of 750mph. That's unheard. Conversely, flights headed west from Boston were at speeds of only 300-350mph at 38,000ft. That's one hell of a tail wind and head wind respectively 

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