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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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 How significant do we think the warm-up is for next weekend? And what seems most likely to happen next. Is that a warm up that starts the process of spring or do we get cold and snowy? I will be in Sedona and they’re talking about a significant storm at the end of the week so the trough will still be out west through Friday at least

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That's a fantastic -EPO in the D8-15 operational GFS, however, and low and behold ... the Euro also D6-10 extends high latitude ridging into the vicinity of the Alaskan sector, tot .. So much so that it's even pinching off a +3 SD ridge node toward the end of the run.

I checked the individual GEFs members and they two have more than just a mere semblance of this phenomenon in that same time range. 

There may have been more or less suggestions for the onset of a -EPO to date ?   I haven't honestly paid that close attention to it, ...but, the complexion of the operational runs from 00z (and may as well add the 06 oper. GFS too) were certainly enough to draw my attention. That's impressive operational agreement on the overall look for D8 -->

Which unfortunately ... is not a declaration of successful -3 SD EPO and all the concomitant gelid inspirations it can mean... It's just that this for me, it is a new-ish signal, and/or a signal that's gotten a major steroid injection.  That's a fair amount of instantaneous weight when both major players agree ( in fact, compare the operational Euro's 192 against the 00z GFS' look at that interval and they are uncanny similar), and the majority of individual GEFs members are also on the same page up in the NW Territories to Alaska.  In other words ... not exactly hurting deterministic confidence, either. 

  So what does it mean..?  Well, for one, we await some constancy ...I'd like the same total weight to repeat for a couple few days ... Then, it would raise confidence that winter is not intending to end by March 1st.  -EPO could also mean loading cold into western N/A ...which is actually both good and bad for winter enthusiasts... If it's one form of the -EPO model, you end up only exacerbating the SE heights and we can have a compensating warm bulge over the eastern U.S. If it's the other form...where there is a kiss by a +PNA it can lengthen the wave lengths and push the cold loading on a further E total loading...and then things get fun real quick.

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Hoping for wintery weather week of the 25th for ski vaca. GFS shows a cutter but euro hinted at a nor'easter in that time range...at least on the 0z run. Could be going out of this season with a bang. Wouldn't be surprised if the best event is in early March. I think it was maybe in March 2015 that a huge storm blew up that just missed us and slammed Nova Scotia. Basically a winter hurricane. Not saying that'll happen but would be fun to cap off the winter.

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

 How significant do we think the warm-up is for next weekend? And what seems most likely to happen next. Is that a warm up that starts the process of spring or do we get cold and snowy? I will be in Sedona and they’re talking about a significant storm at the end of the week so the trough will still be out west through Friday at least

Lol. Warm up? There’s another snowstorm possible next weekend 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

It may have a similar fate as this one...s/w kicks out of the SW and grts squeezed and stretched as the SE ridge goes bonkers and flexes back northwestward. It’s pretty early still, but the GFS has the mid level fronto a little more northward with that one. That SE ridge has meant business though...lots of potent s/w’s keep diving into that persistent west coast trough to recarve it out and the heights in the SE respond accordingly.

I’m seeing the midweek threat as similar to the 2/12 system—but a colder more suppressed version...

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trend to me looks like it is getting worse for Wednesday. It's amazing how little eastward progress that ejecting shortwave makes. 

It's not going like straight north into Iowa and Minnesota. 

Better to show that now than 60 hours out I guess.  Unlikely it will continue to trend continually worse 

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The mid week (overnight Wednesday night...) event is almost non-existent in the Euro ...

We're in a pattern that encapsulates both this nearer term event, and the mid week one; there enters some plausibility in my mind that just as the Euro needed to correct toward more of an impact ( albeit minor ) for this nearer term system, it may also end up doing so nearing Wednesday. 

For the straw man in the room: while it has oft' been said that past modeling performance does not dictate future error, that is a big steaming pile of evasive bullshit contrived in the mind of the reality evading delusional thinker that wants to believe a given present storm has special merit, or a pattern nutation toward no storm doesn't, when they happen to be consuming white model lies in either direction.  

The truth is, if a model consummately sucks asshole, than it is definitely "not likely" to suddenly un-suck assholes. 

The interesting aspect, I don't believe that anyone who has, or is summarily and probably quite judiciously, negating a consummate asshole model ... ever really intended to mean they thought it was dictating to begin with... Where did that come from? No, that was a euphemism that sounded good - a sure-fire lure of the general din of the bus-stop to ride along with accepting some model solution(s) at one time or another.  But it's an argument that was never critically consumed by the reader and then gathered some mantra weight over time but is empty.  It's using rhetoric to hide and/or damp the significance of a simple fact: pattern of behaviors from a given source tend to be repeating.  Fact of the matter is, if a model sucks a lot, odds are, its going to suck ... a lot. And vice versa.  It just that if said sucky model happens to have a bomb, THEN we wield the dictate mantra.  And vice versa. 

Now, you could argue that if x-y-z model only sucks asshole say,  some of the time... in a very general sense of the "use model bias to normalize a model's chance for success" method, we can pick and choose which situations may "prone" the given model to error production vs others. That requires more pure objective categorical approach ...which I'm not sure the lens of dystopian lust we view modeling performance lends very well to such application.  Buuut -this week's Euro - I suspect - may fall into the latter.  Particularly, this pattern contained within its self, may be exposing the Euro's weakness and it will probably repeat said weakness...

So, through excoriating the straw man ... I've used that lambasting to justify the Euro may be under-done with the amount of QPF and overall organization with that quasi-southern stream, return flow mass of ...whatever in the hell that turns out to be mid week. Just like this present one, there are enough super-synoptic scaled arguments for something of that nature to take place, from a varied source work, to question the Euro there.

The system has detail devils that could provide a sneaky wintry headache in the interior.  At 84 hours off the 00z guidance suite (excluding the island Euro) ... there is a 1035 mb polar high and fairly fresh low-lvl cold in place over New England.. But curiously, in as little as 6 to 9 hours, said node of high pressure repositions automagically some 700 naut miles SSE over the open ocean east of Cape Cod... too fast for meaningful backside advection to have transported warm through the total thickness depth of the 500 mb column.  So, what happens is snow breaks out on a S wind... Fascinating.  And, the overall translation speed of the whole mess is so fast, that by the time any such scouring could have taken place, we've generated a cyclonic curl along the warm boundary S of the south coast, which would close the book on that happening in the latter hours of that event.  It's weird, but it's like "cheating" to get to a cold solution ... quite apropos for a season that proverbially seems to have broken the Law Of Averages already... 

 

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