ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Plausible given the PAC this winter. So we monitor and if it can get ahead of the confluence we could see a nice event in New England. I don't want to get people too riled up, but honestly, the synoptic pattern looks very similar to early Feb 1994 going into those snow events. Deep west coast trough with shortwaves ejecting east into a high-confuence pattern with a big SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 That makes for a good battle ground over the area as the ridge forces these north and the confluence will want to push them south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: That makes for a good battle ground over the area as the ridge forces these north and the confluence will want to push them south. These patterns can work really well if timing lines up right and the shortwaves being ejected are of reasonable strength. They can obviously fail too...so I'm with everyone being cautious/skeptical until we get closer...but the '94 analog is definitely proof that it can work. It's a very similar pattern. GFS doesn't grind up the shortwave quite as much as, say, the Euro....so hopefully the latter trends that way (as it is doing with the Monday system). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't want to get people too riled up, but honestly, the synoptic pattern looks very similar to early Feb 1994 going into those snow events. Deep west coast trough with shortwaves ejecting east into a high-confuence pattern with a big SE ridge. It does. Timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 What you want is a solid shortwave that can survive the meatgrinder of the 2 opposing forces. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 46 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What you want is a solid shortwave that can survive the meatgrinder of the 2 opposing forces. But not overly strong that gives the populous a another small kitchen sink event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: But not overly strong that gives the populous a another small kitchen sink event. That is def. in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Certainly an active pattern if nothing else. I'm a little more than halfway to average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Certainly an active pattern if nothing else. I'm a little more than halfway to average snowfall. I figure I average around 70-75" per season...currently around 30"... still ratting, but maybe we salvage part of the season. December killed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Cold air hanging on here in Enfield. Currently 39.6F. Upper 40's to my South. Should warm up soon. 100% snowcover remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't want to get people too riled up, but honestly, the synoptic pattern looks very similar to early Feb 1994 going into those snow events. Deep west coast trough with shortwaves ejecting east into a high-confuence pattern with a big SE ridge. Will just forecast Feb 8-12 1994... The tilt of these storms as modeled on the Goofus is def more favorable vs the sleet/rain events that have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Yeah, You fall into Gen x, I forget your older then some of these younger posters here, Then you remember the suckage from the 80's and lived it. The 1980s were Farmington's least snowy decade, averaging 75.6" compared to the LT average of 90.0". Fortunately, we lived in Ft. Kent for the first half of that period, and had 2 great winters: 81-82 with 186" including the April blizzard, and 83-84 with 171" and mongo dense snowpack. Moved down to Gardiner in October 1985 and, except for one month (49" in Jan. 1987) things were pretty bleak until midwinter 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 12z Euro has alot of snow for the Mid Atalntic next week. Moderate snow gets to Nyc. Let's hope we all cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 12z Euro has alot of snow for the Mid Atalntic next week. Moderate snow gets to Nyc. Let's hope we all cash in. Just saw that, good for them...more ice here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 12z Euro has alot of snow for the Mid Atalntic next week. Moderate snow gets to Nyc. Let's hope we all cash in. How does SNE look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Just saw that, good for them...more ice here Alot of snow /sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: How does SNE look? Confluence kills the storm as it heads north. Barely anything . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Confluence kills the storm as it heads north. Barely anything . Its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 EPS a much better look. I care more about that than the op run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 EC ensembles look better for Wed/Thu than the OP. edit: Ninja'd by Scotter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its right. Lol thanks , confluence nailed a week out on an op model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS a much better look. I care more about that than the op run. There is also confluence on the eps but not that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol thanks , confluence nailed a week out on an op model. Ray has taken to sitting and spinning on the cosmic dildo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Ray has taken to sitting and spinning on the cosmic dildo. He’s enjoyed the feeling ever since he stuck his hand out the window waving his sweaty white towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Got an alert for a couple of lightning strikes off to my SW if you can believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Got an alert for a couple of lightning strikes off to my SW if you can believe it Duxbury had a tstm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol thanks , confluence nailed a week out on an op model. You would like to think that with the subtropical ridge that has persisted this season, we would be able to get this north.....if said ridge still exists. I don't know, I've been on a mental health break from weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Duxbury had a tstm. More severe wx than snow for them this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 38 high for day so far .... had 32f rain earlier (my fav) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 We take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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