Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
 Share

Recommended Posts

If you are looking for James Nichols miracles of change....there is sign of the PAC ridge moving east late in the month starting to encroach on the PNA region. It's really the first time we've seen that....finally looks like a bit more Nino type forcing. Obviously it is still out in clown range, but it is something to watch. It would reduce the gradient type pattern look.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you are looking for James Nichols miracles of change....there is sign of the PAC ridge moving east late in the month starting to encroach on the PNA region. It's really the first time we've seen that....finally looks like a bit more Nino type forcing. Obviously it is still out in clown range, but it is something to watch. It would reduce the gradient type pattern look.

I would gladly take a just cold enough to snow pattern in March. Dump a foot, clear out, and then warm up to 40F with sun to clear the driveway and walkways.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I do believe in the "unpredictable chaos/luck" aspect, but I feel like there is something more to the pattern here just like most of the 80s. Torching cutters followed by arctic cold that frequently struggles to hold its ground ahead of the next system is a pattern flaw to me that may/may not have been predictable from a longer lead. Obviously no one will nail down the details of if it will be 36" or 29", but you could maybe say we're going to be more prone to cutters and retreating cold.

This has been a crap pattern with chaos also not in SNE's favor so it's been a ratter to date. How much is chaos and how much is pattern? Who knows? But even in super ninos we can score some good events when chaos is on our side.

Modeling will continue to improve with time (long range too). But calculating the methane and heat release of every cow dump in the world is difficult for the models to factor in. The models use parameterization anyway where they kind of avg out certain aspects of the geography and conditions to get a best guess estimate of certain variables. They're not factoring the frictional coefficient around PF's picnic tables or a dead hanging branch from one of Kevin's oak trees.

I agree totally. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 I love late Feb and March snow, the sun is warm, the ice is minimal and the skiing is perfect. For outdoor winter fun its the best of times.

I make my ski trips during this timeframe as well. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to past 2 years but I will use my new dad leave in mid Mar to get away for 2 days to Gore. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Yeah fingers crossed this may be an interesting stretch coming up. Unlike recent ones, this one doesn’t look voodoo because it somewhat looks favorable for us. 

What is the main difference, you think....relaxation of RNA and AO drop? NAO looks a bit better, too....though certainly not blocking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s still there at times, but also ridging may be more in the PNA zone for a time too.

At this point, even if we had a historic run and I saved some face, its still a missed call in my book. This season has not behaved how I had anticipated. But I would def. like to save some face. lol

At this point, I'll take what I can get.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At this point, even if we had a historic run and I saved some face, its still a missed call in my book. This season has not behaved how I had anticipated. But I would def. like to save some face. lol

At this point, I'll take what I can get.

If SSW didn't occur, you would've nailed it I think

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Powderboy413 said:

If SSW didn't occur, you would've nailed it I think

Eh...I think it def. hurt my cause, but I wouldn't say that. Just don't know.

I'm a bottom line kind of guy, and am relentless when I'm right, or think I am....so its gotta go both ways.

I missed it...happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I make my ski trips during this timeframe as well. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to past 2 years but I will use my new dad leave in mid Mar to get away for 2 days to Gore. 

Gore hasn't been making a lot of snow this season. If the rest of this month and March are light on snowfall, you might want to pass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Gore hasn't been making a lot of snow this season. If the rest of this month and March are light on snowfall, you might want to pass.

I think rest of month is snowy there, the loose granular will fade within two weeks. But yes, plenty of other great options....I just like their layout the best within a 4hr drive from here. And they don’t get the traffic the SVT resorts get. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lot of cross-guidance support for the Feb 20-21 system....that one could be pretty big for someone given the GOM moisture that gets drawn in. Whether its good for us on congrats Ottawa is another story...lol. But right now most of the guidance likes the synoptics for us.

Lot of uncertainty on the two systems before that too. Either way, it stays active.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...