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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think my greatest snow depth has been 6”-8” this winter...probably in November.   Those were the days...

I’m guessing 5-10 days of 6” pack.   Many many more days of bare mud.  A respite coming up at least. 

Man, different world this season.  Snow depth days up here are probably highest in the last decade.

1.5" or greater snow depth here at 750ft starting on November 13th.  

November 12th was the last time we saw the ground in town.  

15" I can walk on top of right now, down from the max of 26" about 10 days ago.

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Too bad the GGEM sucks... gives NW New England another warning event on Saturday.  11" Wednesday then follows it with 8" on Saturday.  If you wanted to sum up this winter, the 5-day snow map there is it.

I'm starting to get off the "luck" band wagon and more into the line of thinking that there's something stable in this winter pattern that is keeping the dividing lines where they are.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Too bad the GGEM sucks... gives NW New England another warning event on Saturday.  11" Wednesday then follows it with 8" on Saturday.  If you wanted to sum up this winter, the 5-day snow map there is it.

I'm starting to get off the "luck" band wagon and more into the line of thinking that there's something stable in this winter pattern that is keeping the dividing lines where they are.

The EPO.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Too bad the GGEM sucks... gives NW New England another warning event on Saturday.  11" Wednesday then follows it with 8" on Saturday.  If you wanted to sum up this winter, the 5-day snow map there is it.

I'm starting to get off the "luck" band wagon and more into the line of thinking that there's something stable in this winter pattern that is keeping the dividing lines where they are.

Right now its stable, but there has been plenty of bad luck this season.....poorly timed waves cut, and some got squashed. Not to say that the winter still wouldn't suck here, but not this bad.

The NAO has also killed us, and that isn't luck...however it leaves us more prone to luck. Some of these cutters would have easily been like 2-5" or 3-6" front enders if they were timed better..and given that it hasn't been that warm, you would think more would. 

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Too bad the GGEM sucks... gives NW New England another warning event on Saturday.  11" Wednesday then follows it with 8" on Saturday.  If you wanted to sum up this winter, the 5-day snow map there is it.

I'm starting to get off the "luck" band wagon and more into the line of thinking that there's something stable in this winter pattern that is keeping the dividing lines where they are.

You’re getting it now. Luck has nothing to do with wx results.

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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Too bad the GGEM sucks... gives NW New England another warning event on Saturday.  11" Wednesday then follows it with 8" on Saturday.  If you wanted to sum up this winter, the 5-day snow map there is it.

I'm starting to get off the "luck" band wagon and more into the line of thinking that there's something stable in this winter pattern that is keeping the dividing lines where they are.

Ding ding ding, we have a winner. This has been my main theme this winter when the term "luck" keeps getting thrown around. It's not magic or luck. We have seen amazing consistency in the pattern. It is not kucky or unlucky. I am not keen on taking human attributes and tranfering them on to the state of the atmosphere. Physics doesnt work that way. It is a human failing to take what we dont fully understand and label it luck, or vodoo, or magic. There is a reason why things are the way they are with the storm track this winter season. Just because we can't fully understand how all the indices are working together, or in some cases, against each other, doesnt mean there isn't a logical scientific outcome. It just means, as humans, there is more for us to learn before we can understand the mechanics of how everything is playing out.

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18 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Ding ding ding, we have a winner. This has been my main theme this winter when the term "luck" keeps getting thrown around. It's not magic or luck. We have seen amazing consistency in the pattern. It is not kucky or unlucky. I am not keen on taking human attributes and tranfering them on to the state of the atmosphere. Physics doesnt work that way. It is a human failing to take what we dont fully understand and label it luck, or vodoo, or magic. There is a reason why things are the way they are with the storm track this winter season. Just because we can't fully understand how all the indices are working together, or in some cases, against each other, doesnt mean there isn't a logical scientific outcome. It just means, as humans, there is more for us to learn before we can understand the mechanics of how everything is playing out.

Of course and you are 100% correct but like the casinos, the lottery, accidents, games, people take physical events and attribute them to luck. In reality luck is a concept but its easier to attribute or explain. More of a saying. Karma on the other hand.......

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We canceled nada. Just mentioned it’s going to be a struggle to get to normal and hope for a few falls before early spring sets in mid Morch .. even up north 

Oh hell no, you melted, cancelled, and had the windows in the truck down blaring Backstreet boys. No going back

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Too bad the GGEM sucks... gives NW New England another warning event on Saturday.  11" Wednesday then follows it with 8" on Saturday.  If you wanted to sum up this winter, the 5-day snow map there is it.

I'm starting to get off the "luck" band wagon and more into the line of thinking that there's something stable in this winter pattern that is keeping the dividing lines where they are.

It’s not luck Geezus Christ lol

ita the FN placement of the western ridging tropical forcing and wide open Atlantic . Says the same verbatim . If you view the pattern thru snow man coloured (any snow is ggggrreeeat pattern and were not in a torch pattern than it’s “good” then fine that’s arguable 

read the box afd,

“this certainly isn’t a snowy pattern” is plastered into the disco . Ya we can get lucky here or there but the gradient is over CNE consistently w Parent lows going to Toronto on the regular in this cutter flow

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29 minutes ago, Hazey said:


Or not understood yet. 25years from now we may find out that the unpredictable was in fact predictable.

I don't think we will ever be able to predict something like snowfall via a longwave pattern because the nuances within that pattern are likely impacted by short term events that cannot be predicted. A flock of terns in Alaska may be enough to affect something or maybe a volcano grumbling or a few factories in Siberia were not running when an important front of wind occurrred so now the result of mountain torque is slightly different than it would have been. The best we can do is probabilistic. Say one area is more favored than another. 

I get that most people don't like probabilities. We inherently want to believe that it was all destined to happen and we just are missing that golden nugget of info that will make it all predictable one day. I don't believe that is possible though given the variables involved that are by their very nature, "chaotic". 

In other words, I do not think 50 years from now we will be able to say "oh look at this pattern, North Carolina to Maryland is going to do well while Philly to Boston gets screwed and then north of CON does well again."

 

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56 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not luck Geezus Christ lol

ita the FN placement of the western ridging tropical forcing and wide open Atlantic . Says the same verbatim . If you view the pattern thru snow man coloured (any snow is ggggrreeeat pattern and were not in a torch pattern than it’s “good” then fine that’s arguable 

read the box afd,

“this certainly isn’t a snowy pattern” is plastered into the disco . Ya we can get lucky here or there but the gradient is over CNE consistently w Parent lows going to Toronto on the regular in this cutter flow

Me having 21" and not 37" is luck/chaos.

Get over it-

 Not having 60"? Shit pattern.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Me having 21" and not 37" is luck/chaos.

Get over it-

Who the heck is arguing those arbitrary numbers , im saying 9/10 primary’s going to Toronto is the Pattern. That’s the main point of the season....the amazingly consistent primary storm track ...That’s not luck 

if someone can’t understand that is the main point of all this luck/ not luck talk they can’t be helped  

 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Who the heck is arguing those arbitrary numbers , im saying 9/10 primary’s going to Toronto is the Pattern. That’s the main point of the season....the amazingly consistent primary storm track ...That’s not luck 

if someone can’t understand that is the main point of all this luck/ not luck talk they can’t be helped  

 

The pattern sucks.....bad luck and a bad pattern are not mutually exclusive.

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