Hoth Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Last March's epic bust storm would have been my 2nd largest snowfall at 2.5! That thing sucked so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: That thing sucked so bad. Not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 30 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't trust snow fall maps. The ratios are far higher on them then they realistically are here. Cut that number in 1/2. I dont trust snow depth maps at day 10 for a storm at day 6, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I dont trust snow depth maps at day 10 for a storm at day 6, either. FYP. Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: FYP. Lol. Lol yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I dont trust snow depth maps at day 10 for a storm at day 6, either. Correct. My money is on the continued tenor for the season to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Correct. My money is on the continued tenor for the season to date. Ok. But the gfs probably did have about 7 inches of snow on that run for the swfe. The problem with the gfs is its lack of ability to diagnose the warm nose. The gfs reg and nam could show the same general solution but the others will more properly show ip ahead of zr/r. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Trending toward less wound up primary west on the 12z suite so far. Both GFS and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Weaker secondary along the coast as the primary makes it further east into the lakes and is weaker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Good trends so far at 12z, I think this one is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Everything has trended a touch faster too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Normally it would be prudent to wait until you see the whites of it's eyes before locking anything in. This year I'd say wait until smell it's breath...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Germans have a glorified fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Spreads the wealth as well as the qpf field is very broad, A general 6-10" on that GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Gfs bring us all back in....that is a good 4-8 inches from DC to Boston with some drizzle to end it. Sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Anything but rain, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Hope that high holds strong or else we could get another last "minute" convection deal in the SE to help pump the SE ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Nothing like discussing final score when the players are not even on the field yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 This is a fun AFD Wintry weather. Preference to recent run-to-run consistent EC which the 07.0z GFS has caught up and Canadian agrees. So assume a double- barrel low setup, the surface coastal low track, as well as the H925 to H7 low, important with precip-types for S New England with warm- moist air trowaling. If you can close a low up through H7 closer to the coast, it`ll hold back warmer air entrenching further W across the interior. One of the bigger variables as to outcomes. Otherwise indications that this storm system will have plenty of moisture to work with, sub-tropical connections, undergoing isentropic ascent beneath an accompanying jet-streak out ahead of a potent negatively- tilting H5 vortmax. Plenty of QG-forcing, deep layer ascent through the snow growth region, all about the strength and morphology of the system, the draw of precipitable waters presently modeled above an inch per 07.0z GFS, convergently low-level focused / forced beneath stout dynamics aloft, and lastly thermal fields including cold air damming out ahead from SE Canadian Arctic high. Seems like a classic forward running baroclinic leaf with a parent comma-occluding low center immediately W. ECens 24-hour snowfall probabilistics note- worthy. Will await better forecast model consensus and follow CIPS analogs in tandem before going into more detailed, threat / impact centric discussion. Hold onto your cards, wait for a better hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Hope that high holds strong or else we could get another last "minute" convection deal in the SE to help pump the SE ridge. Pretty much the key factor is that it remains in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Clipper behind that systems on the GFS next Friday too, At least it looks to be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Clipper behind that systems on the GFS next Friday too, At least it looks to be active. Looks cold as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Look at the prolific snows in the Sierra's the same time we see this next upcoming storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Powderboy413 said: Looks cold as well Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Look at the prolific snows in the Sierra's the same time we see this next upcoming storm. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Clipper behind that systems on the GFS next Friday too, At least it looks to be active. Even if one tries to give up, the pattern is so active it won't let you.....this winter.... "she's not gonna let us out" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even if one tries to give up, the pattern is so active it won't let you.....this winter.... "she's not gonna let us out" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Looks like next friday could be a clipper re-developer of yore for the downeast folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Winter delayed, But wont be denied, 12z Ukie looks similar to the 12z GFS, Looks like its going to pop a weak secondary SE of the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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