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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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Just now, weathafella said:

Para is worse I’m afraid but they both are bad.

Well my day is ruined. When I don’t get snow I seriously get depressed. If there’s an impending snowstorm I’m the happiest person in my circle. It’s kinda annoying how we can’t get one storm to work for us

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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Well my day is ruined. When I don’t get snow I seriously get depressed. If there’s an impending snowstorm I’m the happiest person in my circle. It’s kinda annoying how we can’t get one storm to work for us

Don’t let it ruin your day.  Snow comes, snow goes, life goes on.

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This is another one of those two part storms where the first wave is important to how the second part tracks...i.e more confluence. Yesterday that first part was stronger which set the stage for the second one to take a more off shore track. Today on the gfs, the first wave is weaker, the second part is slower. Translation....cutter or hugger. I think we went through this not that long ago.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't care what phase the MJO is in, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that ++++AO and RNA doesn't not have a chapter in the Kocin book.

Hope for mediocrity.

The guidance is flux struggling to reconcile the storm idea with the SE ridge (+AO/RNA), and the end result is likely to be manageable.

:lmao: Love this one.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS is really amped and west, looks like its going to try to morph this into a cutter this run as the HP retreats.

That model has screamed "cutter!" for almost every event this season, except for Jan 20, which had so much cold support that even the GFS couldn't kick it to Detroit.

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Just now, tamarack said:

That model has screamed "cutter!" for almost every event this season, except for Jan 20, which had so much cold support that even the GFS couldn't kick it to Detroit.

GFS tried though...it kept trying to track it over ALB for a while and then when it finally caved on that idea it still tried for the ol' ORH track....of course, it actually tracked over the Outer Cape. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't care what phase the MJO is in, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that ++++AO and RNA doesn't not have a chapter in the Kocin book.

Hope for mediocrity.

The guidance is flux struggling to reconcile the storm idea with the SE ridge (+AO/RNA), and the end result is likely to be manageable.

It would be interesting to take the klotzbach mjo sne snowstorm paper and modulate it for the ao/nao sign. I could see a scenario where the phase 7/8 positive ao yields almost no increase and the negative ao phase 7/8 yields 30 percent. (Phase 7/8 yields 15 percent increase of 6 inch plus snowstorm)

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24 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Well my day is ruined. When I don’t get snow I seriously get depressed. If there’s an impending snowstorm I’m the happiest person in my circle. It’s kinda annoying how we can’t get one storm to work for us

You must be on antidepressants then living in the Bronx.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Not bad for pike region.  Decent front ender 

For 6-7 days out...it's still there in the same form. All we can say. SWFE of some variety.

A classic Nor' Easter prob isn't happening in this setup so looking for one will end in disappointment. 

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You know that feeling when you’re playing 5x5 basketball with your homies and there’s that one guy on your team who’s one move is to shoot, has no concept of anything else...you know when the ball gets to him he chucks up long distance 3’s brick after brick, but he just won’t stop. That’s the feeling I get looking at models this winter S of Pike. BRICK. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You know that feeling when you’re playing 5x5 basketball with your homies and there’s that one guy on your team who’s one move is to shoot...you know when the ball gets to him he chucks up long distance 3’s brick after brick, but won’t stop. That’s looking at models this winter S of Pike. BRICK. 

Take that brick and throw it at my head.

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