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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Look although Brady and the patriots were a better team and I won money by picking them against my sports book, I still believe the refs were paid out. Just making a point here although a better team the calls didn’t help the rams either.

Could prob take this to the sports topic

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's gonna be some icing in the interior with this I think. Pretty hard to just ignore that mesolow. 

Yeah but we once had a quebec high and ice and some snow too at the start.  That is way better than just straight ice...on top of the fooking ice that is going to form on all of my driveway tomorrow after the melt today and tonight.  It the winter weather that I detest.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's gonna be some icing in the interior with this I think. Pretty hard to just ignore that mesolow. 

I've leaned the other way...  on the "amount" that is.  Some ...sure... but, this whole situation seems to like be changing the fundamental laws of physics just to keep that from happening. 

Kidding of course, but for commiseration's sake.  

In any case, that first wave - if it doesn't get damp out going down the stretch would be more likely colder in the BL than guidance for the usual reasons surrounding standard error and llv resolution.   But... let us keep in mind, .."tucking" meso-lows don't just tuck 31.5 F air... They do that with 32.5 air almost as often.  

Beyond that, I've given up the notion of protracting an ice storm out of that main wave ... I've argued for the GFS to a lost crowd in the past, but won't attempt to do so this time. I just don't see it's smearing solution/suppressed S as working out and in fact, the 00z and 06z versions trended NW even more, so the consensus is emerging against that being the case at < 4.5 days in the Euro.  So that's the ballgame... 

The upshot is that the EPS backed off a little bit and the GEFs overnight indices continue with a warm look at CPC- so I nice consolation shimmering work in the dark arts of infuriation ... :axe: 

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14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean even the GFS 2 m temps show it.

GFSNE_sfc_temp_093_zpso2mjlwco.png

Yeah it's admittedly not Arctic cold at this point but that could easily be 28-30F down into interior SNE. I think we'll have a better idea obviously once the first low goes by and we see the CAA behind it...:but if the GFs bias is any indication then we should expect some icing. 

22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I know well enough that I should not doubt you.  So, I’m probably wrong, but I think any icing will be negligible.

Maybe. We're using subjective terms here now with posts like this. I don't think I called for a crippling ice storm. The qpf isn't there for it and hasn't been. But "negligible" can mean different things to different people. Someone who spins out on route 2 and totals their car because of icing on Thursday morning that produced one tenth of accretion wouldn't call it negligible...but the person working from home who didn't lose power probably would. 

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I know it has been tough to look past 3 days, let alone 7 days, but that period from Feb 11th to the 13th might be the first legit shot at getting some snow around here. It has been on and off on the OP and Ensembles for a few days now. A nice 3-6 inch snowfall would be nice at this point....

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

00z EPS says Winter is only 10 days away. :clap:

Where was this ridging 2 months ago?

Nice cross-polar flow.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.77740744df15e5cd7002fd63c609aa58.png

Well to be fair....10 days away is still prime time for winter in SNE.  So if this does show up then(big if obviously), it's still not too late at all.  But the big question is if it actually plays out.  No -NAO in that depiction though lol.

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup, ...gets the 32.01 isotherm to about Manchester in NH ...   :arrowhead:

It's a valid point too. This could just be 33 and rain. But both of us obviously know that it could be 29F too. Unfortunately we can't really say what will happen yet. Hell it could even be one of those nowcast deals where it's 33 initially and then we see a bunch of 28s and 29s steaming southwest from Maine and SE NH and flash freeze everyone in NE MA back to central MA and the get 8-10 hours of glaze after that. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a valid point too. This could just be 33 and rain. But both of us obviously know that it could be 29F too. Unfortunately we can't really say what will happen yet. Hell it could even be one of those nowcast deals where it's 33 initially and then we see a bunch of 28s and 29s steaming southwest from Maine and SE NH and flash freeze everyone in NE MA back to central MA and the get 8-10 hours of glaze after that. 

No chance of ice south of ORH right?

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now even Stowe is el torcho for Friday
i wouldn’t anticipate anything that “great” pattern wise . Well have our chances and will need to pray for Quebec Highs and 50/50 lows. 
Unless the EPS go full suck and we break out banana hammocks or that nice red anomaly shows up over Davis straits and we bang 
Sux. Tix at SR this Friday. Hoping they'll let us change to Saturday. Ski in the rn Fri or hardpack ice Sat.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a valid point too. This could just be 33 and rain. But both of us obviously know that it could be 29F too. Unfortunately we can't really say what will happen yet. Hell it could even be one of those nowcast deals where it's 33 initially and then we see a bunch of 28s and 29s steaming southwest from Maine and SE NH and flash freeze everyone in NE MA back to central MA and the get 8-10 hours of glaze after that. 

 

Well... I wouldn't ever put much stock in any product that attempts to paint a boundary layer/surface sensible layout, when said product happens to be off the GFS anything - in all seriousness.. The scaffold of that model's base-line physics appears to be completely f'ed up with low level handling ...

Less than seriously, it is so blatantly bad that I almost visualize some sort of ... I dunno, conspiracy to cover up having left out that entire arm at the modeling agency and someone/quorum is sitting on the truth to protect reputation and jobs...  

Anyway, I bet that lead little shearing impulse ices a bit ... Then, it's got more to it than mere mass-balancing/"sloshing" pheonomenon (which is what the tuck really is)..  Why? because it is an actual impulse ... which means, after it's piddly WAA runs off...there will be backside NVA/DVM however subtle that may be...adds to the slosh ;) 

We'll have to wait and see what the inevitable 'tuck acceleration' yields ... I could almost envision BED squeezing to 32.7 after four to six hours of light icing and pellets, then ..as you say, crashing to 31.3 and perhaps 29 F at ASH just before the ageostrophic breeze goes calm...  Then, the main impulse winding up through the lakes, brings an hour of steadier accretion swathing through N of the Pike (34 at Tolland), before latent heat release from phase change teams up with conduction...  resqueezes the temperature back edging over freezing.  Probably ends up about 34 to 38 N/W of ORH-BED line...with that typical mangled 40 variability NW of PVD...  Then, the flow accelerates to a scouring westerly direction with the occluded fropa ... we spike for two hours before the region cools back ...  Just like always happens every time without exception in these will warm up or stay cold lead side CAD deals...  and around and around we go...

Something like that...  For the record and sarcasm aside, if there is any... and I mean any so much as mere chance for BL resistance NE of NYC's geography...  one would be wise to cut warm intrusion - simply a matter of to what degrees/amount therein. 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No chance of ice south of ORH right?

I wouldn't say no chance. Euro actually has some with the first wave late wed night and early Thursday morning where the freezing line is tickling N CT. We'll just have to watch it. 

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