MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Hopefully the gfs para is right. Shows us a good pattern coming up If the mjo is right , all the models will eventually show a good pattern. We might salvage half of February and maybe March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 The first wave has a shot of some ice in the interior. After that it looks like we lose the drain of cold as the second wave moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The first wave has a shot of some ice in the interior. After that it looks like we lose the drain of cold as the second wave moves in. Word.... at first I was scratching my head trying to figure out where Will was seeing 30s with that Euro D5 at 12z that morning and then it occurred that's what he must've meant. 'Cause that D5 ...as is ain't doin nothin other than seriously bending over already persecuted winter enthusiasts - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The first wave has a shot of some ice in the interior. After that it looks like we lose the drain of cold as the second wave moves in. Still gotta watch it though. Look at ensembles. Even though we have lost the really good high in Quebec, we still see this mesolow being forecast and if we have like 20s in Maine, then it's gonna get sloshed down. As we know, it only takes 31F for a nasty icing event...so even if we're not 24F, could still be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Still gotta watch it though. Look at ensembles. Even though we have lost the really good high in Quebec, we still see this mesolow being forecast and if we have like 20s in Maine, then it's gonna get sloshed down. As we know, it only takes 31F for a nasty icing event...so even if we're not 24F, could still be cold enough. Yeah I think we are saying the same...like you get that slosh back near and after the meso low moves through. Speaking verbatim, I then wonder if we lose the drain as it torches aloft and the inversion layer gets lower and lower with time as the second wave moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still gotta watch it though. Look at ensembles. Even though we have lost the really good high in Quebec, we still see this mesolow being forecast and if we have like 20s in Maine, then it's gonna get sloshed down. As we know, it only takes 31F for a nasty icing event...so even if we're not 24F, could still be cold enough. Still have about 1 in 3 EPS members with the banana high. A little more than 1 in 5 stemwinders, and the rest in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Word.... at first I was scratching my head trying to figure out where Will was seeing 30s with that Euro D5 at 12z that morning and then it occurred that's what he must've meant. 'Cause that D5 is ...as is ain't doin nothin other than seriously bending over already persecuted winter enthusiasts - They'll probably be a pool of cold air not seen by models like always, sloshing fown from SW ME and SE NH. I could see that set the stage for some icing inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I think we are saying the same...like you get that slosh back near and after the meso low moves through. Speaking verbatim, I then wonder if we lose the drain as it torches aloft and the inversion layer gets lower and lower with time as the second wave moves in. It will definitely be harder to drain cold as the inversion gets really thin. What is different in the past 24 hours versus earlier is after the first wave, there's no high actively pressing down, you have lower pressures trying to go up the St Lawrence valley in N NY state which cuts off the Arctic drain there...so all we have left is whatever is to the northeast in Maine...which can still be dangerous if it's cold enough. But without that really nice drain from the north aiding everything it keeps the situation much more marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Lots of bagginess there. Lots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still gotta watch it though. Look at ensembles. Even though we have lost the really good high in Quebec, we still see this mesolow being forecast and if we have like 20s in Maine, then it's gonna get sloshed down. As we know, it only takes 31F for a nasty icing event...so even if we're not 24F, could still be cold enough. So ... the Euro must then be among the more amplified ensemble members ...? right - when is that not the case for a -EPO/west trough/SE ridge whenever there's a Lakes transiting low - seems in this/these pattern variations therein that model settles constructs a cleveland super-bomb with least excuse to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Winter Cancelled it's all over. 80's wasn't so bad at all. https://www.upi.com/Archives/1984/01/11/1984s-first-snowstorm-blasts-East-Coast/5813442645200/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Have there been any significant ice storms in SNE so late in the season like this? Seems like most are in Nov- Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its too bad we've had such a wet winter with normal temps, yet so little snow at this latitude...the return rate on that must be pretty low. I've actually been a bit too WARM with temps, yet bust, boom, bang on snowfall...tricky science. Definitely shows how snowfall forecasting is a bit of voodoo. You can maybe forecast NAO or other indicies but forecasting snowfall tries to take everything one step higher into the chaos of the atmosphere. But what you are talking about reminds me of how Tamarack and I were wondering what the chances of a January in NNE with 150-200% QPF, -5 temp departures, and no snow are...because Jan 2014 pulled it off. The return period on that is likely very long. But it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have there been any significant ice storms in SNE so late in the season like this? Seems like most are in Nov- Jan 2/1/11 and 3/14/97 in CT for example. Parts of northern MA got into some ice Feb 2008 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have there been any significant ice storms in SNE so late in the season like this? Seems like most are in Nov- Jan I did read that when I was a kid actually... I used to skip school in the 7th grade and hide in the Library science section reading weather books - omg... anyway, December I believe is the ice-storm climate friendliest month ... however, there have been important ice- storms in April of all months ...any month of that matter. Time of day and amount of cloud depth helps too ... Much of the 2007 ice storm up in the Worcester Hills accreted at night ...and given another idealized set up...there's no reason why that can't do that in April. Excluding those exceptions though... the reason ice storms are more likely earlier on is just middle troposphere seasonal lag and having greater chances for warm layers aloft still ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Eps looks good after the brief warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It wasn’t warm no, but something shifted the storm track / gradient north. And it wasn’t bad luck You said chaos, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have there been any significant ice storms in SNE so late in the season like this? Seems like most are in Nov- Jan Late Feb '95 had a good one. Actually had no school in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Definitely shows how snowfall forecasting is a bit of voodoo. You can maybe forecast NAO or other indicies but forecasting snowfall tries to take everything one step higher into the chaos of the atmosphere. But what you are talking about reminds me of how Tamarack and I were wondering what the chances of a January in NNE with 150-200% QPF, -5 temp departures, and no snow are...because Jan 2014 pulled it off. The return period on that is likely very long. But it does happen. Its voo doo because snowfall is subject to such a high degree of variance. Why do you think that is? I'll let you toss that four letter word around. But we all know this when we endeavor to do a winter outlook, so its no excuse. However I feel that missing on both temps and snowfall is evidence of a more egregious bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 2/1/11 and 3/14/97 in CT for example. Parts of northern MA got into some ice Feb 2008 too. 2/28/95 was a good one. There was one in march '91 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Late Feb '95 had a good one. Actually had no school in that. Yep, I had that one in my thesis but of course the storm events database doesn't go back that far and I couldn't remember if it was '94 or '95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 2/28/95 was a good one. There was one in march '91 too. I remember that March 1991 event....nasty ice event right down near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have there been any significant ice storms in SNE so late in the season like this? Seems like most are in Nov- Jan My biggest ice storm living in ALB came in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Late Feb '95 had a good one. Actually had no school in that. 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I did read that when I was a kid actually... I used to skip school in the 7th grade and hide in the Library science section reading weather books - omg... anyway, December I believe is the ice-storm climate friendliest month ... however, there have been important ice- storms in April of all months ...any month of that matter. Time of day and amount of cloud depth helps too ... Much of the 2007 ice storm up in the Worcester Hills accreted at night ...and given another idealized set up...there's no reason why that can't do that in April. Excluding those exceptions though... the reason ice storms are more likely earlier on is just middle troposphere seasonal lag and having greater chances for warm layers aloft still ... 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 2/1/11 and 3/14/97 in CT for example. Parts of northern MA got into some ice Feb 2008 too. I don’t recall any of those . I do recall one here in April a few years ago. Not an icestorm per se, but there was good amount of accretion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3/2/07 was pretty good icing in ORH I remember. Was kind of short duration (like 8 hours or so) but we had over a quarter inch of ice. Prob close to 3/8. I remember we started having some scattered power outages before it stopped...if it had gone any longer it prob would have gone down hill pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its voo doo because snowfall is subject to such a high degree of variance. Why do you think that is? I'll let you toss that four letter word around. But we all know this when we endeavor to do a winter outlook, so its no excuse. However I feel that missing on both temps and snowfall is evidence of a more egregious bust. Yeah that's what I mean. Snowfall on a seasonal forecast done in inches (not merely above or below normal) is like forecasting convection a month out. But snowfall is the big ticket item so it's fun to try and guess. Forecasting just above or below normal temps and H5 is more "boring" to a lot of amateur forecasters. If I did seasonal forecasting I'd try to include snowfall. I'd be bored just doing a H5 forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah that's what I mean. Snowfall on a seasonal forecast done in inches (not merely above or below normal) is like forecasting convection a month out. But snowfall is the big ticket item so it's fun to try and guess. Forecasting temps and H5 is more "boring" to a lot of amateur forecasters. Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 3/2/07 was pretty good icing in ORH I remember. Was kind of short duration (like 8 hours or so) but we had over a quarter inch of ice. Prob close to 3/8. I remember we started having some scattered power outages before it stopped...if it had gone any longer it prob would have gone down hill pretty quickly. You obviously need more perfectly aligned conditions for the later season events. Preferably nocturnal, otherwise very cold air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 EPS aren't backing down on the EPO ridge. More like doubling down. Lots of Arctic blasts with that look. GEFS are still not agreeing but they have been caving on the 06z and 12z cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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