Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
 Share

Recommended Posts

Mm... nope. 

there's nothing "gradual" about that undercut cool-down in the operational Euro if that's the source being used...  

00z Wed (Tues eve) has a drilling surface drain underway, and one arriving off a nascent polar-arctic arm of high pressure and a snow pack ... Applying a very justifiable correction for that synopsis (considering also the resolution at this time range) the sounding of the time would be highly negatively sloped. Temperatures Titanic across the entire SNE region.  I bet it's 38 F in southern NH around 7pm after a high of 52 or 54 earlier that afternoon, ...heading for the upper 20s by 06z Wednesday morning ... with 0 ability to rise during the ensuing 24 hours.  

That cinema is an easy draft given the synoptics.  Now ... change these synoptic features and their evolution, okay... But as is... no - that's solid cold llv correction occurring with a bit of rapidity.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Hope springs eternal on the weatherboards. Personally, I think we will get slammed hard a few times in Feb/March with at least one period extended period (2 weeks+) of 24 hour below freezing temps in the interior of SNE. Time is running short. But hope springs. 

Agreed. Hopefully a good 3 week stretch like 2015/2016

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The GEFS are very weenie in the 11-15 day. EPS started to get the -NAO going. 

Easily the strongest NAO sig yet on the 12z GEFS. EPS was starting to do it too as you said...we gotta get it inside D10 obviously. We're getting some ridging there in the nearer term at least, so at least we're not trying to remove a block hole from Greenland...the antecedent environment isn't that hostile to a block forming, so I have a little bit more optimism than usual on it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Easily the strongest NAO sig yet on the 12z GEFS. EPS was starting to do it too as you said...we gotta get it inside D10 obviously. We're getting some ridging there in the nearer term at least, so at least we're not trying to remove a block hole from Greenland...the antecedent environment isn't that hostile to a block forming, so I have a little bit more optimism than usual on it.

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully my pattern is delayed and not denied. I'm ready to write pickles the check, at this point...but I just want to enjoy some nice snow, regardless.

Yeah it's the first time my eye brows sort of raised on this. I agree..want to see it inside day 10...but at least it has some characteristics of not being voodoo. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully my pattern is delayed and not denied. I'm ready to write pickles the check, at this point...but I just want to enjoy some nice snow, regardless.

February and March is still a long time worth of climo favored big snowstorms. 

It might not be 60+ inches at BOS but still seems a good chance that all this futility talk is going to be laughable come April 1st if even a couple 1-1.5" QPF snow events roll through SNE mixed in with light variety fare.  Put up some 30-40" Feb/March/April SNE totals and it turns into a normal winter within a standard deviation probably, no?

Might not even take that much.  ORH is only 16" below normal right now.  One good 1-1.5" QPF winter storm can wipe that out, so it'll take a couple to really catch up in February.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, looks like BDL is only 5" below normal snowfall to-date?

All this futility talk and they are one advisory event away from normal snowfall right now?  But I guess that's sort of what happens when half of that snow falls in November and then nothing really happens for two months.

But BDL could easily still easily finish with above normal snowfall if they are only 5" off the normal pace right now and a couple good events occur in Feb/Mar.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, powderfreak said:

Wow, looks like BDL is only 5" below normal snowfall to-date?

All this futility talk and they are one advisory event away from normal snowfall right now?  But I guess that's sort of what happens when half of that snow falls in November and then nothing really happens for two months.

But BDL could easily still finish with above normal snowfall if they are only 5" off the normal pace right now.

That's the official 30 year normal though. The new regime of the 2000s is higher...gotta adjust for the changing climate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Wow, looks like BDL is only 5" below normal snowfall to-date?

All this futility talk and they are one advisory event away from normal snowfall right now?  But I guess that's sort of what happens when half of that snow falls in November and then nothing really happens for two months.

But BDL could easily still easily finish with above normal snowfall if they are only 5" off the normal pace right now and a couple good events occur in Feb/Mar.

I wish I could move you to SNE and see how you adjust 

With a pattern this active nobody anticipates futility , at least I don’t beleive they do.

They  want it as a means of coping but it’s certainly not likely. 

I would love a epic period that gives Boston 80”. It’s just not happening .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I wish I could move you to SNE and see how you adjust 

With a pattern this active nobody anticipates futility , at least I don’t beleive they do.

They  want it as a means of coping but it’s certainly not likely. 

I would love a epic period that gives Boston 80”. It’s just not happening .

I was a full blown weather weenie growing in Albany and then lived in BTV (local snow hole) for 6 years... I get it.

I know exactly what it is... sort of like when someone shows a season total up here for some past winter that shows "near normal snow" but it doesn't show the flavor of the winter.  Like even 2014-15...that was probably the most frustrating winter to get near normal snowfall, because of what was happening to points SE.

Like if this winter ends with near normal snowfall at say BDL and ORH, on paper years later it won't show the full on sh*tshow that Dec/Jan were in the middle of winter.  Like 2015-16, after a while I was glad it just never snowed so we could get the futility record.  If it snowed 80" on the mountain in April 2016, sure it would be fun but years later it wouldn't show the horror show that was the actual winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Uncle Leo is getting desperate. I wonder how angry he is about dry humping the strat warming twitter folks.

Lol, at least there is coastal storms showing up in the LR. A lot better than a few days ago. A basin wide weak el Nino isn't working so I see no problem with a La Nina like pattern. As long as I can get some possible blizzards out of it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...