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Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

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For IMBY and surrounding personally am split on whether 3”-5” of snow trailing to crappy near freezing rain vs. 6” plus pure snow — followed by getting thrown into deep freeze for the rest of the week — which of those options blows our projects to hell worse

 

Probably the former is worse

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16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah it looks that way.  Hopefully the HRRR/RAP can keep trending upwards, but it's certainly looking like the 0.5" for CR/QC will be way too much.  Still a nice 3-5" event though, if we can get LSRs over 13:1, which I think is possible.  

This.

 

One step in the right direction is the models trending further away from the mid 30’s and more so into the upper 20’s to lower 30’s (depending on area).

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What a strange track on the NAM. I guess the Euro is doing this too, to some extent. The storm was modeled for the last 6 days to come down from the NNW and then head due E...and now, just before the event, we get a NE hook showing up on the models. 

Not saying this to complain...but this storm has been bizarre to say the least. 

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4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

18Z NAM is much better for southern MI and extremely better for northern IL

Looks roughly the same for southern Michigan and half of a county further south in Northern Illinois from what I can see. 

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1 minute ago, Harry Perry said:

Looks roughly the same for southern Michigan and half of a county further south in Northern Illinois from what I can see. 

It is definitely better this way.

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New P&C forecast from IWX has me at 6 to 11 inches. WWA wording indicates 5 to 8 inches.

Edit: Looking through forecasts around me IWX clearly thinking lake-enhancement/lake-effect will up totals closer to LM. Can't say I disagree.

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portion of LOT update

 

Overall, there is some very impressive ingredients coming together
to support a 6 to 8 hour period of heavy snow across portions of
the area tonight. First and foremost, very strong isentropic
upglide is expected across the area overnight as around 50 kt
southwesterly winds develop orthogonal to the isobaric surfaces.
This will be complimented by some quiet impressive moisture, which
is noted by mixing ratios around 3.0 g/kg on the 280-290 theta
surfaces. It appears that periods of heavy snow overnight will
produce periods of 1 to perhaps 1.5 inches per hour, especially
over far northern IL. This timeframe looks to be roughly from
around midnight through 6 am Monday morning, when all of the
dynamics with this system will be coming together. This includes
what appears to be a strong band of 850-700 mb frontogenesis
setting up across southern WI and into far northern IL during the
overnight hours. Given that this will coincide with the timing of
the best larger scale forcing for ascent from the parent mid-
level impulse periods of heavy snow will be likely. Blowing snow
is also expected overnight as south winds increase and becoming
gusty. This will likely add to reduced visibilities in the heavy
snow.

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Think we could easily get 10" in Madison, maybe even more than a foot with the way things are trending.  Looks like the jackpot will be just north of the area.  Snow will just be pouring down here between midnight and 6 am.

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agree 100% appears all think that the 12Z gfs was overdone.

 

to me important thing to take away is that all models have taken the low further south in Iowa but where this thing pivots NE is going to be huge!!!

 

Chicago storm or other PROS what causes the sudden NE movement and do you buy it?

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DTX sticking with the current warnings and advisories per AFD.

Quote
All said, no plans with the afternoon forecast package to adjust the
ongoing winter weather headlines. The combination of the stronger
forcing and longer residence time positioned to the north maintains
higher confidence for a warning level snowfall accumulation (>7") to
focus along/north of the I-69 corridor. Recent probability guidance
trending toward a slightly more contracted event for areas to the
south, indicating the core of this event landing in that 5-7 hour
window /centered between 9 am and 3 pm/ before the mid level dry
slot arrives mid-late afternoon. While a period of higher intensity
snowfall likely emerges, the smaller duration window still points to
solid advisory level totals versus warning criteria. A gusty
southeast wind to 25 mph for areas south of the low track will
contribute a component of blowing snow through the day. Loss of ice
nucleation as the emerging dry slot impinges on the region may bring
a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle late Monday into Monday
evening prior to the inbound cold frontal passage. The advective
process may in fact nudge late afternoon temperatures above freezing
for a time as far north as metro Detroit. Cold front set to surge
through overnight, setting the stage for a long duration and
impressive downturn in temperatures and corresponding wind chill for
the week ahead.

 

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