MNstorms Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 NAM and GFS went opposite ways. I'll take the the GFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 From 12z yesterday to 12z today, the GFS has shifted approximately 150 miles north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 GEM is a touch north, still most south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Shows Cycloneville getting only 4". Toss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: GEM is a touch north, still most south Right...and it means that the furthest south of all models is now tracking the low over the IL/WI state line. Not good trends for the Chicago area. In addition to missing out on the heaviest QPF axis, the ratios will be much worse, since temps won't be as cold. If trends continue, Chicago will be lucky to see 2" out of this, with temps warming into the 30s after the snowfall. What used to be a clipper parade has now turned into essentially one meaningful clipper...and now this one clipper may not even produce...and now the arctic outbreak next week is being muted. Not a good day for winter weather lovers here. Better in MN/WI. While these shifts are not too unusual 3-6 days out (and perhaps we're guilty of getting too excited too far out), it's still frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, beavis1729 said: Right...and it means that the furthest south of all models is now tracking the low over the IL/WI state line. Not good trends for the Chicago area. In addition to missing out on the heaviest QPF axis, the ratios will be much worse, since temps won't be as cold. If trends continue, Chicago will be lucky to see 2" out of this, with temps warming into the 30s after the snowfall. What used to be a clipper parade has now turned into essentially one meaningful clipper...and now this one clipper may not even produce...and now the arctic outbreak next week is being muted. Not a good day for winter weather lovers here. Better in MN/WI. It’s second down. No punting yet. Wait till this sucker is at least partially sampled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: It’s second down. No punting yet. Wait till this sucker is at least partially sampled. Yep, fair point...but hard to deny the trends across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, beavis1729 said: Yep, fair point...but hard to deny the trends across the board. You were all saying that about the storm last week, and it shifted around this much. Calm down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Right...and it means that the furthest south of all models is now tracking the low over the IL/WI state line. Not good trends for the Chicago area. In addition to missing out on the heaviest QPF axis, the ratios will be much worse, since temps won't be as cold. If trends continue, Chicago will be lucky to see 2" out of this, with temps warming into the 30s after the snowfall. What used to be a clipper parade has now turned into essentially one meaningful clipper...and now this one clipper may not even produce...and now the arctic outbreak next week is being muted. Not a good day for winter weather lovers here. Better in MN/WI. While these shifts are not too unusual 3-6 days out (and perhaps we're guilty of getting too excited too far out), it's still frustrating. melt down watch in effect. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 This has Wisconsin special written all over it. With strong LLJ, there really isn’t a whole lot to keep the baroclinic zone from just packing it’s bags and traveling north. I’d expect the low to cut through Iowa in some capacity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: It’s second down. No punting yet. Wait till this sucker is at least partially sampled. Some of the moving pieces were sampled for today's 12z runs, with more for the 0z runs tonight and 12z runs tomorrow. Full sampling will be done for 0z runs tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Baum said: melt down watch in effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, beavis1729 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: WI just trolling ya's now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Right...and it means that the furthest south of all models is now tracking the low over the IL/WI state line. Not good trends for the Chicago area. In addition to missing out on the heaviest QPF axis, the ratios will be much worse, since temps won't be as cold. If trends continue, Chicago will be lucky to see 2" out of this, with temps warming into the 30s after the snowfall. What used to be a clipper parade has now turned into essentially one meaningful clipper...and now this one clipper may not even produce...and now the arctic outbreak next week is being muted. Not a good day for winter weather lovers here. Better in MN/WI. While these shifts are not too unusual 3-6 days out (and perhaps we're guilty of getting too excited too far out), it's still frustrating. Yeah, GFS only shows -23F instead of -28F at ORD Wednesday morning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 If the trends are correct, would be a major victory for the GFS, aside from yesterday’s runs which had capitulated. Once again, still not fully buying this and I believe it will correct south some. Perhaps a blend of what we saw yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Some of the moving pieces were sampled for today's 12z runs, with more for the 0z runs tonight and 12z runs tomorrow. Full sampling will be done for 0z runs tomorrow night. Good to know. After the way last week went it may be the best to just bid time and wait til we get those fully sampled runs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Yeah, GFS only shows -23F instead of -28F at ORD Wednesday morning Longevity of the most severe cold has definitely trended back to a significant degree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 FV3 nearly identical surface low placement as last night over the WI/IL border. 995mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 UKMET still weaker and south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Rains to Racine not too far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: I'm ok with this in so many ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Also if this doesn’t pan out, there should be some rule to disallow members other than Cyclone from starting storm threads 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 hour ago, hlcater said: This has Wisconsin special written all over it. With strong LLJ, there really isn’t a whole lot to keep the baroclinic zone from just packing it’s bags and traveling north. I’d expect the low to cut through Iowa in some capacity. Gonna be a special for me too. looking at 8-14" with heavy snow here in Grand Rapids, MI 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: Also if this doesn’t pan out, there should be some rule to disallow members other than Cyclone from starting storm threads storm threads are not just for your back yard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I will take all snow, can't do another "rain to snow"..... the cold that settles in afterward is going to freeze everything solid again. No thanks. the last one was bad enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Still pretty sizable spread on the GEFS. The operational model trends except for UKMET are what they are today, though not gonna punt this for northern IL. This synoptic setup is a tough one for the models to nail and some of the important features are in a data void area. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Still pretty sizable spread on the GEFS. The operational model trends except for UKMET are what they are today, though not gonna punt this for northern IL. This synoptic setup is a tough one for the models to nail and some of the important features are in a data void area. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk To RCNY point above the 12Z operational GFS was north of the 6z but the 12Z GEFS is better than the 6z GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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