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Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I went into this with the expectation of fairly low ratios down here... maybe 10 or 12 to 1 at best, so hopefully it doesn't come in lower than that.

Also, it's looking like the northwestern row of counties in IN has a chance to come in with similar totals as much of Chicago metro, as that band of precip swings northeast later.  What do you think?

It's kind of looking like that. Probably a 2-5" event south to north across the area.

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From what I can tell in the sheets of snow, the flake size doesn't seem terrible.  Not great but I wouldn't call it pixie dust.

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EC upgraded us to a warning for 6-8 based on synoptic and les.  Given upstream reports, the les is going to have to drive this warning.

Not confident. I'll take the under.

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Still pouring small flakes here.

Up to 2.4” this far. Backside passing MLI/DVN now, so probably will end up around or just over 3” when it’s done.


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Snowing hard. Nice sized flakes. My 4.1" call may be tough to reach, and on the lower end of LOT's 3-7 " call. LOT did a nice job not over reacting to each model run and staying the course.

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LOT finally put IKK under a WWA. :lol: 
Pouring snow sideways here right now. 

The wind is howling out there. Not looking forward to driving today

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Things are just getting started here in NE Lower MI. APX calling for 8-12” by tomorrow with locally higher amounts due to lake enhancement from Lake Huron.

21d40599334b962eed5b430d8339f92e.jpg


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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Still pouring small flakes here.

Up to 2.4” this far. Backside passing MLI/DVN now, so probably will end up around or just over 3” when it’s done.


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Underwhelming for WSW areas I'm sure. Over the years have learned even when models and all signs point to a significant snowfall never count on it until you do with a ruler. 

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57 minutes ago, King James said:


The wind is howling out there. Not looking forward to driving today

Try working in it. :lol: 

It is wicked outside right now. At least the temps are pretty nice, lol.

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8 hours ago, Moosey2323 said:

Southeast Michigan still lacks model consensus. HRRR showing 4-5. Canadian showing 6. GFS just came in with 8. NAM at 5. Guess we'll see what happens.

For me locally, I am expecting a near match today of Saturday nights 3.8". The difference? Saturday was literally not predicted until A few hours before it began to snow, and even then it was only forecast at 1-2". Today has been talked about for a solid week and how much potential it holds, and the end result should be similar snowfall totals lol. Mother nature always has the last say. If I get less than 3" today I will be mad, more than 4" will be a bonus, just my gut.

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Mailbox blew over, snow pasting to the picture window that faces south.  Going to be a brutal week

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Walked the dog at six.  Snowing hard.  Probably three inches on the ground now.  Winds are howling.  I'll try to measure as I walk out the door for work.  Best snowfall of the season.  

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Maybe 4” on the ground, hard to tell with the blowing snow. Might pick up another 1/2-1” at the current rate. Definitely exceeded my low expectations for this area. Roads are a mess as well. Had a car take down a power pole next to a relative’s place. Hopefully they get power restored before temps plunge.

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4 to 6" here.   Some OK drifts and a glaze of ice to top it off.   Seeing some winners nearing double digits and losers like the rest of us.

Pretty decent freezing rain which is nice to keep the deep base in place.

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Flurries starting back up here after a period of freezing drizzle.  Steadier snow looks to be moving in from the west.  Hoping to add any amount of snow to the ~5" we have right now.

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Just now, madwx said:

Flurries starting back up here after a period of freezing drizzle.  Steadier snow looks to be moving in from the west.  Hoping to add any amount of snow to the ~5" we have right now.

Yeah, a bit of an underwhelmer probably due to dry air issues. First winter event in a long while I was legit pumped for, too. Oh well, into the ice box we go and while the warm up next weekend will feel great after that, if it (coupled with rain) gets us back to brown bare ground after all this...

 

:axe:

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6 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

EC upgraded us to a warning for 6-8 based on synoptic and les.  Given upstream reports, the les is going to have to drive this warning.

Not confident. I'll take the under.

Luckily for us nearly every model has a nice lake effect signature which guarantees some good ratios. But it should be offset by the pixie dust that I feared would be coming. Probably estimating 12:1 ratios on average should yield accurate totals. I'd go with 6-7" with locally higher amounts (8-9") for North parts of the GTA and Scarborough where I suspect that band will orient itself 

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