CoalCityWxMan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 GFS is a bit south, gets some better snows near/just south of the low track. CMC May be coming in a bit south too. EDIT: CMC is actually noteably south, looks to be trying to head back towards where it was before almost 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The 12z GFS was a bit south, but still tracks over MKE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The CMC is the definition of spreading the wealth 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The 12z GFS was a bit south, but still tracks over MKE..12z GGEM a bit south too, but still tracks over the IL/WI border.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z GGEMSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z GGEMSent from my SM-G965U using TapatalkGood enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Did GFS actually get one right for once? I'm shocked. Rare it beats Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 12z GGEM Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk With things as is, models have trended N and is that northward model movement pretty much as far as it will go? Just curious in the probabilities of this thing jumping 100 miles north (for example). My non meteorologist inclination is that in this environment (cold air in place, snow pack in IL and IA, etc) that there are better chances of this thing riding the temp gradient south than pushing more north where it is already cold? Model above is a nice hit for pretty much all of WI and MI. Damn that cutoff in N IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Did GFS actually get one right for once? I'm shocked. Rare it beats Euro If the south ticking continues, they all got it wrongish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Did GFS actually get one right for once? I'm shocked. Rare it beats Euro the euro's reputation is far overplayed. That said, it ain't over yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: If the south ticking continues, they all got it wrongish I’d definitely say even if it ticks south from here, the GFS schooled them all. Was the only model with a northern solution for some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: I’d definitely say even if it ticks south from here, the GFS schooled them all. Was the only model with a northern solution for some time I agree completely. It only came south that one run. Not sure if we will see any south shifts. If any I think they will be slight at this point. 0z runs tonight should have a full sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z UKMET stayed with a track along the IL/WI border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 With things as is, models have trended N and is that northward model movement pretty much as far as it will go? Just curious in the probabilities of this thing jumping 100 miles north (for example). My non meteorologist inclination is that in this environment (cold air in place, snow pack in IL and IA, etc) that there are better chances of this thing riding the temp gradient south than pushing more north where it is already cold? Model above is a nice hit for pretty much all of WI and MI. Damn that cutoff in N IL...It's all about longitude it comes in at before it starts to track due east. I have my doubts it comes in notably farther north than GFS/NAM, though obviously can't fully rule it out. If it comes in farther west and makes it farther south before east turn, will help northern IL. As it is, GEM did shift back south and shows a solid event I-88 and north, with warning criteria northern tier, not too far off from last few runs of Euro. This is just a tough setup to model correctly and hinges upon the evolution described above. The models really aren't that far off at this point, kind of like hurricane track forecast errors a few days out, but the small differences matter for us. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 45 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 12z GGEM Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yes please. Edit: I love that like 80% of the state gets more than 6". With the exception of the far north but they'll get lake belts so it's not that big of a deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 latest LOT map to Hoosiers point I am not sure that this includes the 1-3 for today but does bring the 6-8 inch area down thru chicago and joliet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, ILSNOW said: latest LOT map brings 6-8 ich area down thru chicago and joliet. They were sure quick to update that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, ILSNOW said: latest LOT map brings 6-8 ich area down thru chicago and joliet. Hmm... Doesn't that seem almost a bit too spread-the-wealth for you guys? Maybe I'm just out of touch but I thought this isn't the world's widest system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 while we are focused here I see LOT has bumped up todays amounts a bit. Mentions 1-3". Love these events in cold air regimes .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 WPC update is out, leans towards GFS but says a Euro scenario isn't out of the question, only average confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baum said: while we are focused here I see LOT has bumped up todays amounts a bit. Mentions 1-3". Love these events in cold air regimes .... Yeah..I actually think this could play a big role in the Sunday/Monday system. Stronger system could pull the next one down further? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The UK is still pretty robust with the front-end thump over eastern Iowa. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: latest LOT map brings 6-8 ich area down thru chicago and joliet. That might include today's snow, but not sure. Maybe RC can chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Hmm... Doesn't that seem almost a bit too spread-the-wealth for you guys? Maybe I'm just out of touch but I thought this isn't the world's widest system. It almost covers the whole state of Wisconsin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 That might include today's snow, but not sure. Maybe RC can chime in.I think it includes today's event. Best way to compare is to check the map at weather.gov/lot/winter. We've been focusing on the Sunday night-Monday event in the storm total map there.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just read GRB's AFD, they mention possible whiteout conditions up and around the fox cities/lakeshore. Wonder if it'll be strong enough and long enough for a blizzard warning,especailly with how dry this snow's going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Euro 48 hrs 997 Eastern Iowa/NW Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z ECMWF bumped a hair north again. It’s inching closer to what seems like a nearly consensus track along the IL/WI border. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z ECMWF bumped a hair north again. It’s inching closer to what seems like a nearly consensus track along the Il/WI border. . Can’t believe the GFS scored this coup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z ECMWF bumped a hair north again. It’s inching closer to what seems like a nearly consensus track along the IL/WI border. . Consensus until it all changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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