Harry Perry Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18z GFS definitely a “spread the wealth” for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Bump em up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: 18z GFS definitely a “spread the wealth” for many. Bordering on socialism And thanks @UMB_WX for the Kuchera map. I hope the GRR office is watching these models. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 nice for Milwaukee Changes to the forecast include an hour or two later snow arrival time this evening. Increased snowfall between 6 AM and Noon on Monday. Snow will gradually enter from west to east this evening and warm advection aloft kicks into gear at the nose of a 45kt low level jet. HRRR/RAP have come into line with GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM with the surface low strengthening and track. With the majority of the area north of the low track that goes across northern Illinois, we are poised for significant snow accumulation. QPF output remains robust, suggesting 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates overnight through the mid morning hours Monday. This will cause significant travel impacts, with substantial impacts to the Monday morning commute. All areas can expect at least 6 inches of snowfall with a widespread 6-10 inches forecast. The axis of highest snowfall, between 10 and 14 inches is focused on the northeast portion of the forecast area, including areas in and around Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Port Washington, West Bend and Juneau. It is entirely possible this band of higher snow shifts just a bit to the south and includes the the I-94 corridor. Bottom line, widespread heavy snow is expected. Lake enhancement will likely add 2-4 inches for lake front counties overnight through mid Monday morning. Right now, Sheboygan, Ozaukee and Milwaukee are most prone to these higher amounts. It is not out of reason to see storm total snowfall around 18 inches where lake enhancement is maximized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Wind forecast for GRR looks brutal when the storm hits. Getting close to the B word. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Oh Canada... 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Oh Canada... Maybe the 5 inches of snow we got over the weekend will help us out down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nice low-level baroclinic zone out west. Mid 50s in central NE to near 20 in the northeast corner of NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Looking at the precip shield dropping out of the Dakota's..looks to be ever so slightly west of what the NAM was forcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 46 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Oh Canada... If I know you at all, I'm going to guess that you are thinking 1-2" tops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If I know you at all, I'm going to guess that you are thinking 1-2" tops? Honestly, I think 2-4” is doable for IKK. Even the worst model for here, at the moment...the Euro... gets us to 2. Hoping for an overachiever of course... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 This looks like fun, especially if it's not too much above freezing by then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This looks like fun, especially if it's not too much above freezing by then. Really close to blizzard criteria... wouldn’t be surprised to see someone upgraded - especially near the lake shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This looks like fun, especially if it's not too much above freezing by then. There's a few models that show that uptick right before the dry slot hits. I really think that 99% of the precip here will be snow. Relatively quick hitter, precip outruns the "warmth", sort of speak. Then over to drizzle for a few hours with temps getting above freezing. Then everything locks back up in the afternoon. As if there will be much, if any melting of this rock solid glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 NW wind gusting to 53 knots at Minot ND at23z, temp has now dropped 24 deg in half an hour there (37 to 13 F). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: NW wind gusting to 53 knots at Minot ND 25 degree temp drop in an hour too...37˚ to 12˚ 5 minute obs for MOT here: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KMOT&wfo=fgz&num=72&hfmetars=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 We were supposed to be up to 14 or so around here today, then rising from there after 8pm. we're at 5 and falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 That squall line type cold front will be headed for places like PIA and CMI into central IN ... have seen many storms like this because it was very common in the 1970s when I was actually working in a forecast office, and drawing maps (and progs) -- this is why I felt strongly it would go south. They almost always bust south when they fall off the "chinook ledge" as I call it (around where it is now, too far from Rockies to sustain the chinook, warm sector turns to dust). When this gets past Iowa, it will just be all snow, any lingering rain will vanish. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: We were supposed to be up to 14 or so around here today, then rising from there after 8pm. we're at 5 and falling! I was just wondering about that too. 10 at Mt. Comfort with an east wind. 18 at Indpls. Was supposed to rise as you indicated. Low tonight was supposed to be 18. If the low is moving more southward than expected as some previous posts have indicated maybe this will change things for our area. Bold prediction by Roger in the post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I do think temperatures will rise to around 32 F along and south of the track but mostly snow, weakly defined warm sector will be mostly just absence of frigid arctic air briefly, and so temps will rise very gradually all night, peak around 32-34 in those areas, and fall off sharply to 10 F within 2 hours of fropa. That looks to be around noon at IL-IN border. At RFD and ORD I would not be surprised if temps bust well on low side of whatever is the official forecast just because of the gradient. Will say 18-24 F range, and s WI staying mostly single digits except for a bit of warmth carried inland with lake enhancement (15 F). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Still feeling optimistic for 4-7” here with additional from lake effect after the initial front-end thump, especially matching current guidance with radar over MN. Not saying a more southern/moisture-laden system is out of the question - I sure wouldn’t mind it but it doesn’t seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Well MKX is now putting us at 9-12" of snow. With regards to temperature we are -2 and were supposed to get up to 15 something for snow at somepoint here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: Well MKX is now putting us at 9-12" of snow. With regards to temperature we are -2 and were supposed to get up to 15 something for snow at somepoint here. We are at 7° over here - HRRR says we should be 14° at the current hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just dropped to 5 degrees here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Interested in the overnight trends.. This round of plunko is far from over, as proved here last night with a surprise 4" from the clipper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 55-60mph wind gusts reports all over western North Dakota right now. The polar air mass cold front of roughly 30-40 degrees has preceded the arctic air mass cold front. Minot AFB now in the arctic air mass has 7 degrees and steady winds of 37mph, wind chill -18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Skilling and crew bumped IKK up to 3-5 inches in their forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Any thoughts on current radar trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Nothing model specific, but locally it is interesting DTX has been riding a 4" call and TWC hasn't budged from their 5-8" call in days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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