Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,348
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    diamondtae
    Newest Member
    diamondtae
    Joined
AMZ8990

February 2019 Winter Speculation

Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro control looks pretty favorable too, for at least a change from what we've seen lately 

Gives you half a foot weathertree:

giphy.gif

giphy.gif 

That may not be tauntaun ridin' weather, but the Ice Scrabblers may come out. 

Sure I get blanked, but I'm rooting for anyone who gets snow and a changeup to what we've had lately. 

 

 

Looks good. Will jump on bandwagon Thursday if still there

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro control looks pretty favorable too, for at least a change from what we've seen lately 

Gives you half a foot weathertree:

giphy.gif

giphy.gif 

That may not be tauntaun ridin' weather, but the Ice Scrabblers may come out. 

Sure I get blanked, but I'm rooting for anyone who gets snow and a changeup to what we've had lately. 

 

 

The guys/gals in the central states forum will be excited to see this.  The Oklahoma/Arkansas folks have been in a bad slump for snow over the past few years too.  Some of them are over a 1000 days without a winter weather advisory/watch/warning and that’s pretty bad even for those areas.  I wouldn’t be surprised if something close to this verifys  but I’m also not gonna hold my breath.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GOES 17 is a huge help watching systems approach the West Coast, plus tropical convection.

On 2/10/2019 at 8:23 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

GOES 17 now operational with imagery available at College of Dupage website. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-fulldiskwest-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 

You have to click the "Global" sectors and then choose "west" to get thePac imagery options.

Farther west here is a reliable link to the Himawari satellite from the Japan Met Agency. Shows anything from India to Hawaii. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/

I am not going to wish for winter precip. EPS has a disturbing signal. AN 500 mb heights, normal 850 mb temps, cold surface temps undercut at times. Ice is not welcome here.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z GFS bringing the goods for the 19-20th system. What could go wrong with being in the jackpot 8 days out? Honestly, I'm just glad some potential stuff is popping up for one last grasp of winter.

image.thumb.png.606ac26a5ec90575713f059b576519a9.png

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

12z GFS bringing the goods for the 19-20th system. What could go wrong with being in the jackpot 8 days out? Honestly, I'm just glad some potential stuff is popping up for one last grasp of winter.

image.thumb.png.606ac26a5ec90575713f059b576519a9.png

Like it, now will it hold for the next three dozen model runs?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I probably should post this map in banter, but here is the insane, unrealistic snow map for the event. I'll take 1/4 of that and call it day.

image.thumb.png.ac647b62e7ba2d7bba86e6eff365a470.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

I probably should post this map in banter, but here is the insane, unrealistic snow map for the event. I'll take 1/4 of that and call it day.

image.thumb.png.ac647b62e7ba2d7bba86e6eff365a470.png

Yeah, I am good with that map.  LOL.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Like it, now will it hold for the next three dozen model runs?

Probably not, but I am gonna hug that run until 18z.  LOL.  :thumbsup:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Probably not, but I am gonna hug that run until 18z.  LOL.

Me too, that was like a model run from the big ones of the 1960's now if the euru starts showing a similar thing, especially by and of week, well...not sure how long it has been since Nashville has had to plow streets but I can recall as a kid in the 1970s having huge piles in parking lots for days!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Probably not, but I am gonna hug that run until 18z.  LOL.  :thumbsup:

I agree! GFS is king and I'll ignore all other models........until 18z.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Wurbus said:

I agree! GFS is king and I'll ignore all other models........until 18z.

So true. Lmao!!  It’s just nice to have some modicum of wintry possibilities to ponder upon after what seems like eternity since we’ve had anything show up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing of note is how many systems are tapping the GOM or originating there.  As we see the SOI plunge and the MJO move into favorable phases....all we need is one of those to consolidate and move SE of us.  We might see some corrections on modeling if those two features continue w their favorable trends.  If it doesn't snow or ice(thanks Jeff...LOL...we want none of that I agree), looks like more rainy weather ahead.  Flooding may very well continue to be a big story this spring.  Not sure if one of my running routes is going to see the surface anytime soon.  My guess is that we will see several systems cut west of the Apps, but I also suspect that a few of these take the low road.  I always take note when Jeff tucks one of those "ice comments" into his disco.  There is plenty of cold around.  Have to think that we get one or two more strong blasts of cold air.  With the frequency of the systems approaching our area...have to think there is a better than even likelihood that the cold doesn't get out of the way in time.  Big CAD signal for those east of us and even we are certainly not out of the woods here with that setup on this side(we don't see near as much CAD).  @Queencitywx, are you all thinking CAD look on your side of the mountain?

I also agree w tnweathernut in that things begin working against very soon....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Wurbus said:

12z GFS bringing the goods for the 19-20th system. What could go wrong with being in the jackpot 8 days out? Honestly, I'm just glad some potential stuff is popping up for one last grasp of winter.

image.thumb.png.606ac26a5ec90575713f059b576519a9.png

The last time Memphis saw snow in February during an El Niño year was 2010.  It was a big time event too as 5 inches fell on February 8th 2010.  Interestingly enough the following year saw 3.1 inches fall on February 9th 2011, although 2011 had a Strong La Niña whereas 2010 had a moderate El Niño.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, nrgjeff said:

Critical thickness hints ice storm East Tenn. I hope not!

Thankfully it's just the GFS a week out.

You were right on with that earlier comment.  I always chuckle when I see those hints....because I pretty much know the hammer is going to drop on a future run.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

You were right on with that earlier comment.  I always chuckle when I see those hints....because I pretty much know the hammer is going to drop on a future run.  

Different ensemble members across all models have had a similar solution as the GFS op run. Everything is on the table at this range...if the PNA cooperates even slightly, that outcome would not surprise me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Different ensemble members across all models have had a similar solution as the GFS op run. Everything is on the table at this range...if the PNA cooperates even slightly, that outcome would not surprise me.

Will be interesting to watch the trends on modeling.  Some big 1040+ highs seem to be fairly consistent features.  Get the SOI tanking and the MJO in favorable phases...and those big highs will likely press SE.  With that SER tendency added to the mix...frozen precip is a legit possibility.  I am very interested to see how modeling "reacts" to the SOI and MJO during the next couple of days.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's a decent signal on the 12z EPS for a storm out of the gulf in the 7-10.  Long way to go to get to that pretty look thrown by the 12z GFS (you know, the model that's so bad they are replacing it?)  lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12 GEFS is depicting a nice trough in the nation's mid-section late in the run.  I think we are finally beginning to see some changes in the LR in response to the SOI and MJO.  Also, FWIW(and it hasn't been worth much) the last five runs of the GEFS have had a decent snow mean over NE TN.  I hadn't even been looking.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12 GEFS is depicting a nice trough in the nation's mid-section late in the run.  I think we are finally beginning to see some changes in the LR in response to the SOI and MJO.  Also, FWIW(and it hasn't been worth much) the last five runs of the GEFS have had a decent snow mean over NE TN.  I hadn't even been looking.  

The GEFS has had a few nice big dogs the past several runs, also a lot of nothing and rain. The way this winter has gone, we might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard with a blindfold and hope we hit a bullseye.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z GFS is a more flat and a little more south than 12z. The main snow axis sets up south of TN. Still a pretty good look this far out and gives it room to come a little north. Snowfall in central Alabama and North Georgia are going to be pretty epic this run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just for the sport of model chasing, if that energy over NV is able to catch the Gulf energy on the 18z GFS... woo boy. 

And I know, it is dissecting one (well maybe 2) run(s) of an op at 8 - 10 days, but ain't much else going on as far as I can tell. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the 18z FV3 is on storm mode as well...take that model w a huge grain of salt.  My initial guess would be a multi-day overrunning even for folks just to the north of the TN border.  However, if the models are just now modelling the MJO and SOI correctly...more changes to come.  The Weeklies tonight do have a weeks 3-4 cold snap.  So, they do fit with what we are seeing...but maybe a tad slower.  Time will tell.  Have I said how much I really dislike backloaded winters?(and this is the extreme version of backloaded!...like last second)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, Weeklies are BN temps and AN precip for the next 46 days.  Cold rain and more cold rain.  However, have to think we see some frozen mixed in as well with those variables looking that way.  The Weeklies have been certainly fallible this winters...so take these w a HUGE grain of salt.

Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 8.39.24 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-02-11 at 8.39.31 PM.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Model hugging the 6z GFS and 6z FV3 this morning....unless it is ice and then not as much.  I would suspect that usual model tendencies are in play w the Euro being a bit to amped and the American suite being too progressive.  The GFS now has a marginal threat around hour 102.  There will be much uncertainty about key features, especially how far the cold makes it into the SE and how strong high pressures will be coming into the Plains.  Add in repetitive shots of moisture from the GOM, and we have an active(likely much of it as cold rain...maybe some frozen as well) coming up.  The frozen chances likely go up as we progress towards the end of the month IMHO.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Model hugging the 6z GFS and 6z FV3 this morning....unless it is ice and then not as much.  I would suspect that usual model tendencies are in play w the Euro being a bit to amped and the American suite being too progressive.  The GFS now has a marginal threat around hour 102.  There will be much uncertainty about key features, especially how far the cold makes it into the SE and how strong high pressures will be coming into the Plains.  Add in repetitive shots of moisture from the GOM, and we have an active(likely much of it as cold rain...maybe some frozen as well) coming up.  The frozen chances likely go up as we progress towards the end of the month IMHO.

So March is the new February, seems familiar lol

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×