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February 2019 Winter Speculation

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It is interesting to watch the 180ish timeframe right now.  The 12z CMC was close and the 12z FV3 has an energy handoff w a likely Miller B.  So, the models are seeing something during that time frame.  Looks to me like the energy will go west and transfer to the coast vs actually the entire bundle going south of us....or just a cutter w the passage of a front here.  Because there is nothing else to watch...I will probably keep an eye on it.  Those are the types of windows that sometimes gin up interesting solutions.   Low cuts to the Lakes.  Front drags through the GOM and something rides up the front.  That used to be very common here.  

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From the last page (rephrased) the -NAO is helpful for cold and snow, all else equal. Cannot have sabotage from the Pacific. PNA is killing us right now!

During the 11-15 day the EPS last night had the (poorly placed) AK ridge weaken and leave behind a -EPO which is more helpful for winter. However the -NAO must hold. 

MJO and global wind should be bullish but it keeps being pushed back. For all my pessimism, I do think it'll get cold again later this month.

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This is the 18z GFS total accumulated precip depiction through 384.  12z had much more.  It may very well be that rain is the story for the month of February.  I know most of us(me included) like to talk winter during February.  However, with our rivers full in NE TN, any rainy system will have to be watched closely as flooding might become an issue.  A poster from the Mid-West mentioned that the Ohio is already full and they had begun a thread for that.  I really hope flooding does not come to pass.

Screen Shot 2019-02-08 at 8.58.26 PM.png

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MRX is on it....afternoon disco.

The main heavy rain threat from this pattern will come Monday and
Tuesday. The above mentioned long wave trough in the west will
slowly be shifting east during this period leading to an enhanced
mid and upper level southwesterly jet between the trough to the west
and ridge to the east. Looking at the 300 mb level, winds are
projected to be 120-140 kts from eastern OK through the western TN
and OH valleys by Tuesday which will help to produce a long swath of
lift along a NE to SW oriented frontal boundary. This will also
enhance the deep layer southwesterly flow and WAA leading to
unseasonably warm temps and waves of heavy rain. The axis of
heaviest rain may end up over middle TN skirting the plateau on
Monday with more showery type rain farther east due to the boundary
being a little farther west, but the above mentioned jet energy will
induce strong cyclogenesis over the Plains and upper Midwest Monday
night into Tuesday. This will push the front into the region as a
cold front and definitely move a swath of heavy rain through most of
our CWA Tuesday, so I have likely to categorical pops most of Monday
night through most of Tuesday. The latest WPC QPF plots as well as
model forecasted QPF supports this idea by keeping the heaviest rain
west of Knoxville through the plateau into Middle TN Monday then
progressing through the rest of the CWA Tuesday. Embedded
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front Tuesday as
soundings show at least a little CAPE with PWAT values around 1.5
inches. I mentioned possible thunder in the forecast grids across
the valley and plateau. Flash flood guidance from the northern
Plateau across the northern Valley will probably be the lowest due
to the flooding earlier this week, but standing water and rises in
area creeks, streams, and rivers are possible anywhere in our
region. I have mentioned a threat of flooding in the HWO.

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This pattern still looks more Nina with warm fronts lifting into the Valley,even the LP'S coming through the Valley since fall

 

 

 

El Niño and its Effect on the Southeast U S .png

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The 18z GEFS and 12z GEPS are beginning to show the influence of blocking at high latitudes.  I have been out of pocket all day...so the 18z GEFS not having a strong SE ridge in the SE for the last week of Feb caught my eye.  Going to be tough to score at that time of year...but that potential is still in the cards.  If we finally score a storm, and this Faux Nino finally delivers...From now on, I am not even bothering to get interested in El Nino winters until February.  Just going invest in a membership at the gym instead of having to run in the rain.  

@jaxjagman, I definitely agree that this winter has had some characteristics of La Nina winters.  Seems like the system are juiced w an El Nino active STJ...but the storm track does indeed resemble a La Nina winter.  I am just hoping that the winter will remember the low road tracks from late November and December. 

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7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GEFS and 12z GEPS are beginning to show the influence of blocking at high latitudes.  I have been out of pocket all day...so the 18z GEFS not having a strong SE ridge in the SE for the last week of Feb caught my eye.  Going to be tough to score at that time of year...but that potential is still in the cards.  If we finally score a storm, and this Faux Nino finally delivers...From now on, I am not even bothering to get interested in El Nino winters until February.  Just going invest in a membership at the gym instead of having to run in the rain.  

@jaxjagman, I definitely agree that this winter has had some characteristics of La Nina winters.  Seems like the system are juiced w an El Nino active STJ...but the storm track does indeed resemble a La Nina winter.  I am just hoping that the winter will remember the low road tracks from late November and December. 

Yes,the jet extension the GEFS shows this pattern should continue at around the next several days .Maybe it retracts the end of Feb and finally builds up a +PNA,but in all honestly it would be more dry.Just a crappy winter.

 

gfs-ens_uv250_nhem_65.png

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SOI dropped again today -8.26.Seems like at least clouds in Tahiti.Not sure how daily values myself reflect in any pattern other than the 30-90 day value of the ENSO.Use to believe in this but not sure anymore.Seems better suited to figure out the ENSO  in time and not daily means..JMO

 

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13
9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22
8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37
7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58

111111.png

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6 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yes,the jet extension the GEFS shows this pattern should continue at around the next several days .Maybe it retracts the end of Feb and finally builds up a +PNA,but in all honestly it would be more dry.Just a crappy winter.

 

gfs-ens_uv250_nhem_65.png

These types of winters that we have had so many of lately - at least it seems as though - are really what makes it so bad at least in the Nashville area when we do, and we will eventually one year, get snow. People forget how to drive in the snow and honestly, settle into the idea that it doesnt snow here - kind of leaning that way my self. I think we had the three or four cold days a couple of weeks ago and that has been it, almost a carbon copy as last year, both in the prediction and the outcomes! At least we have rain to track!

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GOES 17 now operational with imagery available at College of Dupage website. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-fulldiskwest-14-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 

You have to click the "Global" sectors and then choose "west" to get thePac imagery options.

We can now watch tropical Pacific convection in full, living color! 

giphy.gif 

 

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Oh what could have been. We have been sitting between 35.4*-36.9* with a steady rain for the last few hours at our house. I haven't looked at any observations but I'm curious if the mountains have an inversion and are warmer with rain or if there is any frozen slop falling anywhere?

Has anyone heard of any actual frozen precip falling in Tennessee today?

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34 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Has anyone heard of any actual frozen precip falling in Tennessee today?

I've got some friends hiking up LeConte today and will ask them what they saw when they get back. 

I had some sleet this AM. 

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3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I've got some friends hiking up LeConte today and will ask them what they saw when they get back. 

I had some sleet this AM. 

We had sleet and snow for about 30 mins in Kingsport.

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Just because there hasn't been much to talk about lately regarding winter weather, the 12z Euro and 12z GEFS had a system around the 19-20th. It's still over 7 days out, so take it with a grain of salt and I'm sure it will change several times, but it's the first time the Euro has showed anything remotely interesting in a while.

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2 hours ago, Wurbus said:

Just because there hasn't been much to talk about lately regarding winter weather, the 12z Euro and 12z GEFS had a system around the 19-20th. It's still over 7 days out, so take it with a grain of salt and I'm sure it will change several times, but it's the first time the Euro has showed anything remotely interesting in a while.

Yeah the Euro is further South than the GFS this afternoon for Friday evening.If the Euro would be right it would send a post frontal shortwave though the Valley.Nashville discusses this, this afternoon on it's disco.If the GFS were to be right being further North it would crush this idea sending much drier air into the Valley.Just an dusting to maybe an 1/2" the best unless you live like where John lives.700mb shows this on the Euro this afternoon.But trusting shortwaves run to run is like watching models each run,now you see me,now you don't

AccuWeather com® Professional   Forecast Models.png

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I'll have to see a storm out the window at this point to belive it! But the last 10 days of February are actually among the snowiest of winter in the region. It doesn't usually stick around long after but big events are possible. 

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2 hours ago, John1122 said:

I'll have to see a storm out the window at this point to belive it! But the last 10 days of February are actually among the snowiest of winter in the region. It doesn't usually stick around long after but big events are possible. 

True.The problem i have with any winter storms unless it's some super freak storm this time of year is when it snows here in our parts it could be melted away in a couple hours.Our climo just sucks when we head into the latter part of winter.

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58 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

True.The problem i have with any winter storms unless it's some super freak storm this time of year is when it snows here in our parts it could be melted away in a couple hours.Our climo just sucks when we head into the latter part of winter.

At this point I'd take a single day of snow cover, it's better than the mud I've had most of winter. Still, I had snow on the ground the final 10 days or so of February just a couple years ago, granted, it was below zero in the 20-28th range that year. Not common to say the least.

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3 hours ago, John1122 said:

I'll have to see a storm out the window at this point to belive it! But the last 10 days of February are actually among the snowiest of winter in the region. It doesn't usually stick around long after but big events are possible. 

Ha, I won't believe it until I see it sticking to the ground. I guess we can dream. I'm afraid to say it but I may go through a winter with no event over 3 inches. Here I was a month ago afraid I wouldn't see a snowfall of over 6 inches which hasn't occurred since early 2016 I believe.

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This is the same period as i posted above what the GEFS shows the jet retracts and builds up the PNA,we've seen this sign before though

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If it's right though,the question would be if the NAO goes strongly -ve it will keep storms more supprressed,but that look on the GFS  would be nice,we'll see

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Y'all seem almost optimistic this AM. So are we climbing back in the boat for one more run toward shore? 

giphy.gif 

What the heck, seems like it's been a while since anything but the Fv3 showed something that even looked like a possible storm, so I figured I might as well post it.

Still 8 days for it to verify in Chicago, or 8 days for it come a little south, though I doubt that in the current pattern. Still 8 days for it to come south in modeling, then back north at the last minute and Miller B us. For my location this type of storm is usually a no go, even if by some miracle it panned out. Would be happy for any it did hit though. 

Alright weathertree, it may not be screensaver worthy, but:

giphy.gif 

Fv3 looks eerily like the Euro at that time.

 

 

SOI -19.02, so convection is moving on east. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, what will NWP show when it initiates with convection in more favorable regions/ amp? No guarantee of any outcome, but I'm ready for a few fantasy storms at the very least. 

We've seen it before, but as I've pointed out in earlier posts, maybe there is some substance to it this time. Maybe not. My investment bank of hopeful patterns is broke. All surprises, warm or cold, will be pleasant.

giphy.gif

giphy.gif 

 

 

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Euro control looks pretty favorable too, for at least a change from what we've seen lately 

Gives you half a foot weathertree:

giphy.gif

giphy.gif 

That may not be tauntaun ridin' weather, but the Ice Scrabblers may come out. 

Sure I get blanked, but I'm rooting for anyone who gets snow and a changeup to what we've had lately. 

 

 

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Not sure I'm ready to get reeled back in just yet, but I will say if the blocking in the Atlantic is real and the 50/50 is strong and well placed, these solutions being seen on OP's aren't a lock to move more northwest (as is typical) as we get closer.  If the confluence is a touch stronger, one of these systems that likely follows a cutter could be a mid-south/southeast system vs. a midatlantic/northeast system.  Still a LONG way out (what hasn't been this winter, right?) but the LR looks in general seem to be progressing the last couple of days and that's a good first step. Pretty sure we will see a few more fantasy snows being thrown by the OP's this week. 

Devil's advocate - we are working toward a period that is really late in the year for a large part of our forum wrt wintry weather.  That of course doesn't take the chances to zero for all of our forum, but we will find ourselves in a race against the clock very soon.

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