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Late January-Early February Clipper Train


Hoosier
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37 minutes ago, hlcater said:

With the bigger clipper and the arctic outbreak next week, I haven't seen too much talk about the clipper tomorrow. Could drop a sneaky 1-2" across much of E IA and N IL. Hardly as noteworthy as whats up ahead, but the unique thing this system has going for it is the extremely cold air it has to work with. Could be looking at ratios of 20-25:1. Snow in the single digits, THAT's winter.

 

Also noting the strange looking DGZ on this sounding. Since the surface layer is a part of the -12 to -18c zone, it's technically in the DGZ? Though this could be the algorithm messing up, as a DGZ from 800 to 700mb seems more probable. 

 

nam4km_2019012418_024_41.52--91.24.png

I've seen model soundings like that before in the mountains out west and in Alaska.  Don't think Ive seen it around here though.

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I think if trends hold tomorrow could be a sneaky disaster commute in the Chicago area. Bitterly cold temps and road treatments don't mix and fluffy arctic snow is already pretty slick. If today's dendrites are a sign of what tomorrow may be like, 20-25:1 ratios could fluff up to 1-3", maybe even a bit higher in spots. Wouldn't be surprised if a WWA is issued considering the timing coinciding with the PM commute.

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16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think if trends hold tomorrow could be a sneaky disaster commute in the Chicago area. Bitterly cold temps and road treatments don't mix and fluffy arctic snow is already pretty slick. If today's dendrites are a sign of what tomorrow may be like, 20-25:1 ratios could fluff up to 1-3", maybe even a bit higher in spots. Wouldn't be surprised if a WWA is issued considering the timing coinciding with the PM commute.

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thought the same thing based on today's results. That's why I've always loved these clipper/northwest flow regimes..

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8 minutes ago, Baum said:

thought the same thing based on today's results. That's why I've always loved these clipper/northwest flow regimes..

This high ratio stuff is always fun, simply because it looks awesome. Classic winter as those puffballs are falling. Just the couple hours of flurries/-sn was great for the winter lovers mood today. 

As RC mentioned, any light snow is going to accumulate effectively. A burst of moderate snow over the metro during the rush will be enough to paralyze traffic. A lot of the country roads out here are already snow covered due to blowing/drifting. 

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I'm already thinking about what kind of hellish conditions the roads may be in after Monday.  I remember in January 2014 there was that layer of ice/snow that just couldn't be removed from the roads... even main roads.  Bottom line, get it cleaned up quickly!

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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm already thinking about what kind of hellish conditions the roads may be in after Monday.  I remember in January 2014 there was that layer of ice/snow that just couldn't be removed from the roads... even main roads.  Bottom line, get it cleaned up quickly!

got that already after that glaze of ice and than an inch or so of snow in these parts......

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I don't buy the 00z NAM for tomorrow. Looks like classic NAM dry air issues with the unrealistic splotches of qpf/snow only where the model thinks saturation is sufficient. SREF only had one member with no measurable snow at ORD.

 

Edit: Referring to 00z NAM12. 3km NAM looks much more realistic.

 

 

 

 

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Looks like a DAB at best for here with today’s snow. Was hoping for a little uptick, but not seeing it. Should be some decent mood snows at the least...
What's your definition of DAB? Looks like 1-2" there, or right around 2" if you go by latest HRRR/RAP and Euro and GEMs. Toss the NAMs.

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What's your definition of DAB? Looks like 1-2" there, or right around 2" if you go by latest HRRR/RAP and Euro and GEMs. Toss the NAMs.

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Thinking an inch or so in the I-88 corridor?

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1112 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2019  
   
UPDATE  
  
1112 AM CST  
  
DIFFERENTIAL WATER VAPOR RGB IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL  
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST. LATE  
MORNING SFC ANALYSIS HAS A 1018MB LOW NEAR KFSD WITH SHORT RANGE  
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD  
ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF ILX AND  
DVN BOTH WERE EXTREMELY DRY WITH PWATS OF BARELY 0.05" WITH VERY  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. HOWEVER,  
CONTINUED AND STRENGTHENING ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPENING  
OF THE SATURATION IN THE COLUMN AND EVENTUALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND  
NORTHWEST IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.   
  
BIGGEST CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO NUDGE THE AXIS OF HIGHER  
(ALBEIT STILL VERY LIGHT QPF) FARTHER NORTH. GOING FORECAST USED  
SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS CLOSE TO 20:1 AND STUCK WITH THAT RANGE THOUGH  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THE  
ASCENT IN THE BETTER DGZ IS FAIRLY WEAK AND THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER  
IS BARELY WITHIN THE PRIME DGZ RANGE. THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY  
THAT SLRS COULD END UP LOWER, PERHAPS 15:1 OR LESS IF THE DOMINANT  
FLAKE TYPE IS MORE NEEDLE AND CRYSTALS. WITH THE HIGHER QPF MOVED  
NORTH A BIT, THE 1-2" AMOUNTS NOW EXTEND UP TO OR JUST A BIT NORTH  
OF I-80. DEPENDING ON FLAKE SIZE AND SUBSEQUENT SLR, COULD END  
UP WITH MAX AMOUNTS CLOSER TO OR JUST BELOW AN INCH.   
  
REGARDLESS OF SNOWFALL IS A HALF INCH OR 2 INCHES, THE POTENTIAL  
IMPACTS WON'T VARY MUCH. THE BITTER COLD AIR MASS WILL ALLOW SNOW  
TO IMMEDIATELY STICK ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND THE VERY COLD TEMPS  
COULD ALSO MAKE CHEMICAL TREATMENTS ON ROADS LESS EFFECTIVE. SO  
MAIN FORECAST MESSAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS LIGHT SNOW WILL  
DEVELOP AND RESULT IN POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS  
DURING RUSH HOUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88/I-290.  
  
- IZZI  

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