RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Yea we are a long ways from knowing where this is going to track. Gfs being gfs bouncing all over. I feel I80 north will be the jackpot for this. Just a hunch. But I seen time and time again where these trend south in time but this isn't solely a clipper and more of a hybrid so hard to sayNot really gonna worry about individual op runs for a few days, other than that the underlying positive ingredients for a good event stay consistent on them and solid enough ensemble agreement. The all important surface low track will be dictated by wave path and strength and degree of phasing or lack thereof in a very amplified upper pattern. From best I can tell scrolling through the GFS h5, the primary/parent wave for the Sunday night-Monday system is somewhere well south of the Aleutians at this time. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Pretty clear disconnect between the GFS and the FV3. Grain of salt. Hopefully more clarity by Friday. Edit: Also some good spread on the ensembles. A number of solid hits in Wisconsin, a number for Illinois 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I am actually surprised that any model has this so far north with 2 other clippers beforehand that would sure reinforce the cold air in place and lower the heights in the east. There isn't enough wave spacing to allow this to go northeast from what I see yet it does at the surface. I would suspect we see adjustments south some. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 31 minutes ago, Stebo said: I am actually surprised that any model has this so far north with 2 other clippers beforehand that would sure reinforce the cold air in place and lower the heights in the east. There isn't enough wave spacing to allow this to go northeast from what I see yet it does at the surface. I would suspect we see adjustments south some. Especially of one of the weaker waves preceding this one trend stronger, of those the one on Sunday is of particular interest as it could have a fairly pronounced impact on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, hlcater said: Especially of one of the weaker waves preceding this one trend stronger, of those the one on Sunday is of particular interest. Agreed, I would also discount the models showing rain at this point, this system doesn't have a super strong LLJ preceding it. The last storm was pushing 70kts this is half that speed with as cold of a lead in atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Of course conversely the trough can deamplify too much which the Euro is doing, and the system weakens as it comes out into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Of course conversely the trough can deamplify too much which the Euro is doing, and the system weakens as it comes out into the Lakes.Still solid out here, but dampening eastward not good for farther east obviously. Everything still on the table with this. I do agree in leaning somewhat against the GFS op and ensemble members even stronger than the op for the reasons mentioned.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Still solid out here, but dampening eastward not good for farther east obviously. Everything still on the table with this. I do agree in leaning somewhat against the GFS op and ensemble members even stronger than the op for the reasons mentioned. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yeah I would look at the Euro op run as the lower end of the spectrum on this considering how strong the vort is, I feel the op run is deamplifying things a bit quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 8 hours ago, Stebo said: Agreed, I would also discount the models showing rain at this point, this system doesn't have a super strong LLJ preceding it. The last storm was pushing 70kts this is half that speed with as cold of a lead in atmosphere. I totally agree. Find it pretty unlikely that this would have rain all the way into northern IL. Our last system came in from the SW and was able to pull a big slug of warm air north. However this system is diving SE from the north so it really won't be able to pull as much warm air north given its distance from the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: I totally agree. Find it pretty unlikely that this would have rain all the way into northern IL. Our last system came in from the SW and was able to pull a big slug of warm air north. However this system is diving SE from the north so it really won't be able to pull as much warm air north given its distance from the Gulf Untrained opinion here, but there are 850 temps nearing +10C in Calgary as this starts diving down. Models have it bringing it's own warm air with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Also like Stebo was saying, clippers tend to track closely to the previous and often slightly more south. They follow the baroclinic zone. So to me it should take a similar track to the previous two. However this system isn't a traditional clipper and more of a hybrid so there could be more jet interaction/phasing with this that could support a more northerly track. But my gut says it will track somewhere near northern IL. I don't buy GFS tracking it into WI at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Also like Stebo was saying, clippers tend to track closely to the previous and often slightly more south. They follow the baroclinic zone. So to me it should take a similar track to the previous two. However this system isn't a traditional clipper and more of a hybrid so there could be more jet interaction/phasing with this that could support a more northerly track. But my gut says it will track somewhere near northern IL. I don't buy GFS tracking it into WI at all GFS has it much more south now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Classic GFS cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 12Z GFS back south and is a crush job for Chicago area with wide spread 14-16 totals. I am sure it will fluctuate north and south over next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just like I was saying. I80 north crush job. Lol. But likely to still see fluctuations with this. Curious to see this system in nams range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Exact details are foolish to worry about at this range. Just worry if there will be a storm at this point. And the 12z GGEM, as worthless as it is, is a crusher. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Big difference on the 12z GFS was the Sunday clipper which was more amped and further south, allowing heights out ahead of Monday’s events to lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 There is going to be very strong westerly WAA ahead of this system which will obviously impact the baroclinic zone. There's a 20C temperature gradient at 850/925mb over about a 75 mile stretch! Wouldn't get too caught up in many details yet. A few have pointed out that clippers tend to trend southward... that may be be true most of the time but it's far from a guarantee here. I'd love to be in a corridor from LSE to Cyclone77 to CHI right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Man if that wave can amplify just a bit more and get some more Gulf moisture involved, this could easily be a top 10 snowstorm for the subforum, and I mean that with 100% seriousness. It's not everyday you see such an ideal air mass in the cold sector with potential access to anomalously high PWATs. This also probably won't have the wind component that some other major storms had in the region, which should yield better rates. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 FVS-GFS= poof on the monday system 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 FVS-GFS= poof on the monday systemToo many models.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Not really gonna worry about individual op runs for a few days Merits repeating, seemingly endlessly. Thanks, Ricky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 56 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: FVS-GFS= poof on the monday system I have seen enough from the last several storms to know I don't need to even look at the FV3-GFS. It has been absolutely terrible with cold sector precip or weaker precip events. Look what it does to the 2 clippers beforehand, both of them are going to be nothing? I am really concerned about this supposed upgrade for the GFS, and I know I am not alone in that regard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Euro is almost the same spot as the GFS at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said: FVS-GFS= poof on the monday system I've noticed on non-main storm systems it has struggled in really showing a system at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Euro is another good run. Decent lake enhancement signal too for SE Wisconsin. With the ratios, this should make for something special. Will be a fun few days of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 When is this energy sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 With the bigger clipper and the arctic outbreak next week, I haven't seen too much talk about the clipper tomorrow. Could drop a sneaky 1-2" across much of E IA and N IL. Hardly as noteworthy as whats up ahead, but the unique thing this system has going for it is the extremely cold air it has to work with. Could be looking at ratios of 20-25:1. Snow in the single digits, THAT's winter. Also noting the strange looking DGZ on this sounding. Since the surface layer is a part of the -12 to -18c zone, it's technically in the DGZ? Though this could be the algorithm messing up, as a DGZ from 800 to 700mb seems more probable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: When is this energy sampled? Decent sampling for Saturday evening runs, and fully for 12z Sunday runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 With the bigger clipper and the arctic outbreak next week, I haven't seen too much talk about the clipper tomorrow. Could drop a sneaky 1-2" across much of E IA and N IL. Hardly as noteworthy as whats up ahead, but the unique thing this system has going for it is the extremely cold air it has to work with. Could be looking at ratios of 20-25:1. Snow in the single digits, THAT's winter. Also noting the strange looking DGZ on this sounding. Since the surface layer is a part of the -12 to -18c zone, it's technically in the DGZ? Though this could be the algorithm messing up, as a DGZ from 800 to 700mb seems more probable. Just going to say we may need a seperate thread for the Monday potential as it stands out from these other smaller events...Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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