NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Limited maps bit uk looks like .05- .10 "qpf for Friday for many . Anyone have detailed ukmet access? Just curious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 42 minutes ago, Ji said: euro is a disaster for friday but even if it wasnt a disaster...the entire event is a disaster anyway...would of been fun though seeing light snow with temps in the teens. Very dissapointing How can it possibly be a disaster when it always looked like a weak sauce event on guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: How can it possibly be a disaster when it always looked like a weak sauce event on guidance? Outside of the mountains and perhaps isolated spots along the M/D line, people shouldn't expect more than some pixie dust flurries in the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Outside of the mountains and perhaps isolated spots along the M/D line, people shouldn't expect more than some pixie dust flurries in the area. From the time it showed up on guidance (to me) it had the look of a virga-fest/pixie dust deal with an upside of maybe an inch. The highlands will probably squeeze out a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: From the time it showed up on guidance (to me) it had the look of a virga-fest/pixie dust deal with an upside of maybe an inch. The highlands will probably squeeze out a few inches. Yeah, I thought the fact that it was juicing up for the mountains (over 0.5" QPF) was a positive for this area but the 0.1"+ stuff is targeting central PA. At least your puddles should be well frozen by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: From the time it showed up on guidance (to me) it had the look of a virga-fest/pixie dust deal with an upside of maybe an inch. The highlands will probably squeeze out a few inches. Hey hey. Stop the negativity. You know we’re getting NAM’d for this event at some point. We’re definitely in line for a severe heavy pummeling of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Yeah, I thought the fact that it was juicing up for the mountains (over 0.5" QPF) was a positive for this area but the 0.1"+ stuff is targeting central PA. At least your puddles should be well frozen by then. This thing has no real mechanism for significant lift other than terrain. Outside of the mountains its a wimp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Nam lollies your yard Well that's how it would happen- I can't buy a snowflake lately from an event that looks good on guidance. Maybe this weak POS will deliver a few pity flakes lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam lollies your yard I have noticed on a few runs some hints of weak coastal development- sort of looks like an inverted trough. That's always a high probability way to score some snow at this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I have noticed on a few runs some hints of weak coastal development- sort of looks like an inverted trough. That's always a high probability way to score some snow at this latitude. Interesting to look at the positive snow depth change from the 18z 12k. You can kind of see some kind of coastal enhancement... Wouldn't be a bad little event considering it's been nothing up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 27 minutes ago, Scraff said: Hey hey. Stop the negativity. You know we’re getting NAM’d for this event at some point. We’re definitely in line for a severe heavy pummeling of flurries. Well... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Interesting to look at the positive snow depth change from the 18z 12k. Wouldn't be a bad little event considering it's been nothing up to this point. Yeah if there is some coastal enhancement then not out of the question there could be an area of maybe 1-3". These sorts of events can do that, but generally further north. Seems to happen fairly often in coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Bring on the NE MD pummeled posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 NAMs are super wet for the mountains. Pitt going with 6-8" in their first call for Canaan/Garrett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Mount Holly's take on the weak ass Friday deal- almost exactly matches what my thoughts are/have been. I would gladly take a half inch though lol. Friday-Friday night... Low level Canadian high pressure remains nearby. Modest WAA in the low levels, but it will be another chilly day. We will also have a shortwave approaching from the northwest. This is not a strong disturbance and has limited lift, but some light snow is likely Friday afternoon and evening especially in central and southern parts of the area. Accumulations look to be near or below an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: One can only hope the Bahamas gets the squall warning in time! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Icon also has the coastal enhancement piece for friday @C.A.P.E.. Northern tier and the eastern shore might be able to eek out an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Icon also has the coastal enhancement piece for friday @C.A.P.E.. Northern tier and the eastern shore might be able to eek out an inch or so. Maybe. That would be the top end with this. My forecast is for a half inch or less. That seems completely reasonable. I will look forward to an an hour of pixie dust with a microscopic dusting lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 FWIW 18z RGEM has an inch From dc to the north east with a max of 1.5-2” on the upper eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, MD Snow said: FWIW 18z RGEM has an inch From dc to the north east with a max of 1.5-2” on the upper eastern shore. I see you guys mentioning the coastal influence or high qpf near the shore...the UK posted earlier also had similar look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Ascending days of temps 18, 20s, 30s, 45. With a winter threat in between. I remember this from childhood, these events can overperform. Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Lol. Nws point and click has 1 to 3 for Smithsburg on Friday. Don't see that happening but ok. Given current guidance even 1" would be pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 In the lwx afd they sound bullish on snow chances. They state advisories most likely needed in the northern counties and decent lift in the dendritic snow growth zone lol. Could be a decent stat padder for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.salt Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 From LWX (4:33 AM) .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will traverse the area Friday. It`s weak, but there`s notable warm advection in the 850-700 hPa layer, tucked under a modest coupled upper jet structure and mid-level PVA. Given the cold temperatures, any precipitation that falls will be snow and have no trouble sticking. East of the mountains, lift is focused in the dendritic snow growth zone, so despite low-level dry air believe there should be at least some steady light snow in the I-81 corridor and near/north of US-50. Along and north of I-70, moisture and lift are a bit better and this is where the best chance for plowable snow exists east of the mountains. As far as the ridges of the Allegheny Highlands go, lift here is actually a bit below the dendritic snow growth zone. Cold temperatures should yield ratios close to 18:1, but with low inversion heights and less than ideal wind trajectories, current most likely forecast is for sub-warning level snow (solid advisory, 3-6"). Therefore, have opted not to go with a watch at this time. Advisories will likely be needed over the mountains and in northern Maryland (especially given the cold ground and potential impact) for Friday, if current forecast projections remain on course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Pretty good 12z 12k nam run. Like how the axis of accumulating snow (however small) has shifted to the south right through Md over the last 24 hrs. Someone should start a thread just for kicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 3k "juiced" up a little at 12z as well. Would be nice to see mesos push this to .2 qpf throughout the day. Probably a stretch but that would really make this a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 22 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 3k "juiced" up a little at 12z as well. Would be nice to see mesos push this to .2 qpf throughout the day. Probably a stretch but that would really make this a nice little event. I’m guessing some higher ratios could definitely push this into an SP advisory level event (stats padder). LOLz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: I’m guessing some higher ratios could definitely push this into an SP advisory level event (stats padder). LOLz. 6z RGEM and 3K NAM is nice for Loudoun. COuld see 1 inch plus of crystal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 6z RGEM and 3K NAM is nice for Loudoun. COuld see 1 inch plus of crystal HoCo looks fine too. I’ll inch my way to climo if I must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 6z RGEM and 3K NAM is nice for Loudoun. COuld see 1 inch plus of crystal I was going to mention that, the GFS was starting to juice up a tad but the NAM had zero until 12z today and now shows a little. Ridiculously cold grounds plus cold air temps could create a nice snow globe. You really can't hate that despite all of the doom in the LR we still snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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