Danajames Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The 0600 run of the GFS looked a little more bullish than the midnight return as far as snow potential Tuesday night. If that comes to fruition, I could see 2-3 inches. Of course, the noon run might look completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Looking over the 00z and the 06z GEFS and I think it may have blinked first with its battle with the EPS. The last two runs have seen a somewhat deeper and sharper trough drop towards the gulf states on its initial plunge, more in line with the EPS though not quite there yet. We are also now seeing signs of a southern shortwave within that trough that was not present on past runs. Again this is more in line with the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Good read from Mount Holly in their AFD, although the take away is they aren't overly impressed at this point. As discussed yesterday, three perturbations will dictate the character of this storm as it affects the Mid-Atlantic. In general, the 00z model suite is in fair agreement with the overall evolution. The 00z GFS remains the fastest solution with all of these perturbations, though it has slowed toward consensus since this time yesterday. The largest difference remains its strong weakening trend with the southern-stream perturbation that rounds the longwave trough in the middle of the country Monday night. This is strongly tied to the quick nature of the northern-stream perturbation`s progression of the system toward the area. Meanwhile, the CMC looks much more like the general evolution of the GFS than it did yesterday, but noticeably slower. The ECMWF remains the strongest with the southern-stream perturbation and in developing a secondary low in the lee of the Appalachians Tuesday night before progressing it rapidly northeastward to the vicinity of coastal New England by 12z Wednesday. However, it has trended toward the weakening southern-stream perturbation that the GFS/CMC both suggest. With the general idea being operational model convergence with this system, a model blend was used for the forecast today with higher confidence than yesterday. On Tuesday, the surface low in the Great Lakes region will move into southeast Canada, with a cold front extending to the south. The front and proximity precipitation will likely approach the CWA by late in the day, but is unlikely to reach us before then. As such, lowered PoPs Monday night and Tuesday morning in an effort to narrow the timing. The primary window for precipitation looks to be Tuesday night as the front moves through the area. Notably, the timing and position of secondary low development along the front will be critical in determining strength and duration of precipitation. The stronger look of the ECMWF suggests slower timing and perhaps more prolonged precipitation along the axis of frontogenetical lift near and just west of the developing cyclone. Per trends, however, the strengthening phase most likely will occur in New England versus here, so precipitation should be fairly tame, especially since the strongest large-scale lift will be weakening (via a departing downstream jet streak) as the frontogenetical axis shifts across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Good read from Mount Holly in their AFD, although the take away is they aren't overly impressed at this point. As discussed yesterday, three perturbations will dictate the character of this storm as it affects the Mid-Atlantic. In general, the 00z model suite is in fair agreement with the overall evolution. The 00z GFS remains the fastest solution with all of these perturbations, though it has slowed toward consensus since this time yesterday. The largest difference remains its strong weakening trend with the southern-stream perturbation that rounds the longwave trough in the middle of the country Monday night. This is strongly tied to the quick nature of the northern-stream perturbation`s progression of the system toward the area. Meanwhile, the CMC looks much more like the general evolution of the GFS than it did yesterday, but noticeably slower. The ECMWF remains the strongest with the southern-stream perturbation and in developing a secondary low in the lee of the Appalachians Tuesday night before progressing it rapidly northeastward to the vicinity of coastal New England by 12z Wednesday. However, it has trended toward the weakening southern-stream perturbation that the GFS/CMC both suggest. With the general idea being operational model convergence with this system, a model blend was used for the forecast today with higher confidence than yesterday. On Tuesday, the surface low in the Great Lakes region will move into southeast Canada, with a cold front extending to the south. The front and proximity precipitation will likely approach the CWA by late in the day, but is unlikely to reach us before then. As such, lowered PoPs Monday night and Tuesday morning in an effort to narrow the timing. The primary window for precipitation looks to be Tuesday night as the front moves through the area. Notably, the timing and position of secondary low development along the front will be critical in determining strength and duration of precipitation. The stronger look of the ECMWF suggests slower timing and perhaps more prolonged precipitation along the axis of frontogenetical lift near and just west of the developing cyclone. Per trends, however, the strengthening phase most likely will occur in New England versus here, so precipitation should be fairly tame, especially since the strongest large-scale lift will be weakening (via a departing downstream jet streak) as the frontogenetical axis shifts across the region. Interesting. Not sure what I am missing here but I really am not seeing that. Thought they may have been referencing the op runs where I was looking at the ensembles, but even the op run looks, at worst, roughly the same with that feature not to mention we are seeing an actual sharpening and deepening of the trough as well. And this goes for both comparing the 00Z to the 18z and 12z runs. Maybe I am having a senior moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 6z FV3 looks good, stripes the northern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Interesting. Not sure what I am missing here but I really am not seeing that. Thought they may have been referencing the op runs where I was looking at the ensembles, but even the op run looks, at worst, roughly the same with that feature not to mention we are seeing an actual sharpening and deepening of the trough as well. And this goes for both comparing the 00Z to the 18z and 12z runs. Maybe I am having a senior moment. Their discussion focuses on the op runs for sure. I haven't looked closely enough to comment on your possible senior moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Seems to still be some interest on Twitter...Ian etc with how the SSW on Monday interacts with the NSW on Tuesday. Extrapolate the 6z rgem for example. If anything it’s a major model fail inside 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Gentlemen, do you think you can keep all the Debbing on the long range in the thread devoted to it? Please? This after all is a thread devoted to specific threats one of which we are following now. i actually mentioned how bad the icon had look for this storm and then PSU chimed in with thoughts on the pattern and then i responded. So blame him:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Danajames said: Wash, Rinse...Repeat. Great, isn't it? Umm no...it’s not, but it is what it is. Some of us can root for snow but deal with reality at the same time. You wouldn’t happen to know a fellow by the name snowstorm4567753234555()?(;:;(66766 would you? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: i actually mentioned how bad the icon had look for this storm and then PSU chimed in with thoughts on the pattern and then i responded. So blame him:) My post was obviously tongue in cheek but you don’t neee much excuse so I do take responsibility for my actions. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Umm no...it’s not, but it is what it is. Some of us can root for snow but deal with reality at the same time. You wouldn’t happen to know a fellow by the name snowstorm4567753234555()?(;:;(66766 would you? My ignore list has grown exponentially over the last week or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I would love to see some semblance of a forming slp off the southeast coast on the 12z GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 10 hours ago, Solution Man said: Das es gut Deutschpañol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 6Z FV3 shows a little instability through the area next Saturday. That was showing up on some earlier ops runs from this week. Not a big deal. But maybe a quick hitting half inch or so. Something else to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 50 minutes ago, mattie g said: Deutschpañol? Nein, schwarzer mann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 GFS a little strong with the low in the gulf at 72, maybe a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 looks like we waste a tremendous amount of qpf on rain per GFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Yeah, we get QPF of 0.5 though. 4 minutes ago, Ji said: looks like we waste a tremendous amount of qpf on rain per GFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: looks like we waste a tremendous amount of qpf on rain per GFs you take the model with the best qpf and combine it with the model with the coldest temperatures and BOOM...come on man you lost your handbook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 GFS finally woke up and realized there is more energy hanging back. Starting to look like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Flurries on Wednesday with temps in the single digits per the GFS. That would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ji said: looks like we waste a tremendous amount of qpf on rain per GFs Why so negative all the time? The gfs seems to be trending heavier with the snow as well 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowCane said: Why so negative all the time? The gfs seems to be trending heavier with the snow as well Yeah I’m looking forward to this event. My bar is 1-2 inches. It will make the arctic weather much more palatable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS finally woke up and realized there is more energy hanging back. Starting to look like the Euro. GFS is the Barney Fife (a la Don Knotts) of models. It will have things figured out by the time the event is unfolding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Cmc has been scoring higher than the gfs. Also has a better solution than the gfs. Easy choice to hug until the euro comes out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 very disheartning what happened to our d6/7 coastal although the GFS improved a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Ji said: very disheartning what happened to our d6/7 coastal although the GFS improved a tad If you think the models are overdoing suppression in the med range then the potential looks pretty good for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Cmc has been scoring higher than the gfs. Also has a better solution than the gfs. Easy choice to hug until the euro comes out. It’s all snow for us too, no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc has been scoring higher than the gfs. Also has a better solution than the gfs. Easy choice to hug until the euro comes out. The Canadian seems clueless down the MS Valley and southeast though. It’s way more progressive with the boundary and area of snow across MS-AL-GA more than any other 12Z model and the EPS so it’s less likely to be right downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If you think the models are overdoing suppression in the med range then the potential looks pretty good for now. lol i mean its not much...but its something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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