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January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker


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Going by the EPS means it looks as if it is starting to see more interaction with the SE coastal low and/or left behind energy from that low that was OTS on previous runs. As evidenced by more solutions with lows off the coast. 

eta: Also looks as if we see a very small adjustment eastward of the lows track as it runs through the region.

12zeepslows.thumb.gif.349e7cddf24a289cfdaa02551f4e9fee.gif

 

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16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I wouldn't dismiss either storm. Both are occurring at prime times for big storms. One as the pv is dropping down and the other as it is withdrawing northward through the 50/50 region.

Oh yeah?...I mean, why would the mid-week deal deliver more than a couple inches at best? (I mean, I thoughts folks in here have been pretty down on it for the most part?) 

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but Nov 15th wasn't that big (2-3 inches, perhaps), and the 9th was a total whiff except for the extreme southern parts of this subforum!

I got 4.5 inches from Nov 15th in Central Baltimore County.  Dec 9th affect more than just the extreme southern parts.  It was just south of Washington DC.  Like I said... Territory Wars

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

EPS snowfall for individual members are pretty pedestrian. No big hits but really no total shut outs either. Looks as if roughly a handful or so don't get at least an inch into at least a portion of the DC/Balt corridor.

Is this for the midweek deal or the whole 15 days?  What's the Feb 2/3 window look like?

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Mid week. After the Jan 30th time frame through the 5th we see a pickup of roughly an inch to an inch and a half. No major uptick centered around the 3 rd though. EPS is only out to the 5th at this time.

Ok, thanks.  I think people should keep their expectations in the dusting-2" range in all honesty.  

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13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yeah?...I mean, why would the mid-week deal deliver more than a couple inches at best? (I mean, I thoughts folks in here have been pretty down on it for the most part?) 

Looking beyond any snow event in these parts is a huge recipe for disappointment. You never know when the last snow of the season is going to happen. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Ok, thanks.  I think people should keep their expectations in the dusting-2" range in all honesty.  

Really have no expectations at this point. Think the whole setup for around the 30th is still very much up in the air. Not even worth considering beyond that point until that storm gets resolved.

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25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looking beyond any snow event in these parts is a huge recipe for disappointment. You never know when the last snow of the season is going to happen. 

Yeah but when you're looking at a couple inches, though...even if nothing else were to work out, what do I lose by looking past it (seeing as it wouldn't be much excitement unless it trends better) Maybe for you and others that got 10-12" and don't need much more to hit climo...it's a stats padder but 0-2 inches is nothing, even if next weekend doesn't work (but I'm hoping it turns into something.) 

Now get the mid-week deal up to 5 inches or more and I'll watch, lol But otherwise, I wouldn't see it worth getting excited about even if it were the last flakes we saw...just a couple inches, lol But maybe I've been too ungrateful...I don't know. I just want hit the 20" mark for climo!

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but when you're looking at a couple inches, though...even if nothing else were to work out, what do I lose by looking past it (seeing as it wouldn't be much excitement unless it trends better) Maybe for you and others that got 10-12" and don't need much more to hit climo...it's a stats padder but 0-2 inches is nothing (now get it up to 5 inches or more and I'll watch, lol)

(not to say I'm fully invested in next weekend, but I am hoping it turns into something!)

What I was trying so say is if you can't appreciate a 1-3/2-4" event followed by arctic air then you will often go multiple years in between events that are better than that. 

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What I was trying so say is if you can't appreciate a 1-3/2-4" event followed by arctic air then you will often go multiple years in between events that are better than that. 

So 2-4 is still on the table, huh? And trust me, I'm aware of our history withthe big ticket events; but here is what I also know: we are either due for a larger storm or very close to it. The layoff between storms that drop at least a foot is 3-4 years! (only about three spans in our history that went longer than that). So since it has been 3 years since the 2016 blizzard...a footer could be due either this year or next year.

But in general...I get the most enjoyment out of storms that go 5" plus...But at the same time, I see your point about the mid-week deal still be interesting by the dynamics (artic cold with potential snow cover of a few inches) can be interesting.

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is 2-4 even on the table? And trust me, I'm aware of our history withthe big ticket events; but here is what I also know: we are either due for a larger storm or very close to it. The layoff between storms that drop at least a foot is 3-4 years! (only about three spans in our history that went longer than that). So since it has been 3 years since the 2016 blizzard...a footer could be due either this year or next year.

But in general...I get the most enjoyment out of storms that go 5" plus...But at the same time, I see your point about the mid-week deal still be interesting by the dynamics (artic cold with potential snow cover of a few inches) can be interesting.

There is a ton of uncertainty with the tues/wed timeframe. We have a close pass with the TPV and the trough is going negative. Crazy thermal boundary as well.  The upside is actually much higher than 2-4". It's an explosive setup on the euro/eps and very interesting from a met perspective. Someone could easily get nuked. Obviously further N has the best chance. I looked through all 50 euro solutions and it's pretty jaw dropping how many different scenarios are packed into one event. Our range is 0-10" with the solid majority giving us .2 - .4 qpf as snow. It could be very high ratio snow as well followed with howling winds and crashing temps. I surely don't see this setup as something to just gloss over and toss. Not by a longshot. 

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11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So 2-4 is still on the table, huh? And trust me, I'm aware of our history withthe big ticket events; but here is what I also know: we are either due for a larger storm or very close to it. The layoff between storms that drop at least a foot is 3-4 years! (only about three spans in our history that went longer than that). So since it has been 3 years since the 2016 blizzard...a footer could be due either this year or next year.

But in general...I get the most enjoyment out of storms that go 5" plus...But at the same time, I see your point about the mid-week deal still be interesting by the dynamics (artic cold with potential snow cover of a few inches) can be interesting.

Just enjoy whatever snow you get, that's the point...especially in the Mid Atlantic where we've had two awful winters in a row (single digit snow totals for me).  Regarding T/W, nothing can be ruled out for now with such a complicated setup...anything from 0" to 5".  Just keep following along.  Of course people want 5" or more but to write off threats that are less than that isn't going to make you very happy living here.   

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There is a ton of uncertainty with the tues/wed timeframe. We have a close pass with the TPV and the trough is going negative. Crazy thermal boundary as well.  The upside is actually much higher than 2-4". It's an explosive setup on the euro/eps and very interesting from a met perspective. Someone could easily get nuked. Obviously further N has the best chance. I looked through all 50 euro solutions and it's pretty jaw dropping how many different scenarios are packed into one event. Our range is 0-10" with the solid majority giving us .2 - .4 qpf as snow. It could be very high ratio snow as well followed with howling winds and crashing temps. I surely don't see this setup as something to just gloss over and toss. Not by a longshot. 

Huh...the more you describe it, the more I see what you mean...Certainly not your run-of-the-mill clipper! Interest level increased to 30% :D

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

That storm is long gone. Let it go.

I've never been in on it. 1) It's interesting to see how it has trended hundred's of miles west in the last 24 hrs, especially as we have two potential coastal storms next week. Thinking there will be some other major changes with the two threats coming up later next week. 2) It may end up affecting our Tuesday/Wednesday deal. 

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

That storm is long gone. Let it go.

The thing is, the longer it lingers there and the closer it gets to our region the more potential there is for energy to be left behind as it departs for Jan 30th system to key on. When all is said and done it may very well have a major impact on what we see with the system we are tracking. Then again maybe not. :D

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