Scraff Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: We’ve switched out of disaster mode and into HECS mode. I was playing of course. But I’m all in. Fun tracking times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, Scraff said: I was playing of course. But I’m all in. Fun tracking times ahead. Looking forward to the upcoming analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 45 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: EPS snow mean looks better at 18z compared to 12z for the Tuesday/wed deal. Edit: to be specific the 24 hour snow map centered at 144 hours is 2-4 for the whole area as opposed to 12z when there was a stripe of 1-2 over dc and immediate area. Also the 4-6 line bumped south closer to the PA/MD border. Have an 18z EPS snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 43 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: EPS snow mean looks better at 18z compared to 12z for the Tuesday/wed deal. Edit: to be specific the 24 hour snow map centered at 144 hours is 2-4 for the whole area as opposed to 12z when there was a stripe of 1-2 over dc and immediate area. Also the 4-6 line bumped south closer to the PA/MD border. That's really encouraging honestly. The euro op was a razor edge of win/fail. 12z EPS was similar to the gefs with 80% showing at least a trace and around 14 of those showing 2" or more. Only 2 of those showing 5-6". Mean qpf as snow was around .15. From what you describe it sounds like double the qpf as snow within the members. Too bad we can't get meteograms for the off hour runs. Would like to see the spread. If we could get .3 - .4 qpf as snow we could get a warning level event with high ratios. Then howling winds and single digit temps...yea, sign me up for that. It's really not a good setup for snow so my expectations are reasonable. The prospect of what type event it would be with crashing temps and gusty winds is very intriguing though... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 One thing about real deal arctic airmasses (capable of setting daily records, where all the airports are lower single digits and outer suburbs below 0) is that they seem to come in with some kind of frozen precip even if just 1-2 inches of snow with the front. Think back to Feb 2015, early Mar 2014, and going back further Jan 94/Feb 96. All were big time arctic outbreaks, the latter two featuring the pool of -40C air in the midwest, similar to what we are seeing on the models for next week (more recent ones were in -34 to -38 range iirc). Maybe someone with a better memory can think of a time when all the airports were near zero w/o snowcover (Jan 2014 might be the best example but there was a 2-4 inch event a few days before the arctic front and I seem to recall that front underperforming the hype a little around here) Now part of this might be a chicken and egg thing - without snow cover the boundary layer probably moderates enough along the trajectory that by the time it reaches our area, temps are out of the extreme range. But I do think it has to do with the nature of the air mass and that true arctic air is a) usually preceded by an cold enough antecendent airmass that any precip produced by the front can be frozen, b) the shallow nature of the cold lends itself a bit more to an anfrontal structure (showmethesnow had a nice explanation of this earlier today). Another point is that to drive those air masses into our area you need to be to the west of the surface low to stay in or near the cold sector and have a strong northerly component after the low passes - a true cutter like the one last weekend or today can't do it because the flow behind the front is has more of a westerly/downslope component which reinforces the dynamic downward motion and maxes out the adiabatic heating. I'm not sure how much of this applies to next week since the core of the cold seems to want to stay north, except on the op EC which of course amplifies the storm in the right place to drive the core of the cold into our region. But I'd be skeptical of forecasts for area-wide temps near zero unless we get some snow cover laid down ahead of time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Since we're throwing around weenie fantasy maps I figured I should post the biggest storm on the EPS. This one literally buries 95 and east with what looks like 30+" of snow. A 968 tucked like that with arctic air sprawled banana style all over the top of it would be a true blizzard of the likes that I've only seen in the Rockies. This has to be a front runner for the weeniest storm ever inside of 10 days. Maybe I'm missing one but a sub 970 tucked like that is mind boggling... lol ETA: it's like 40"+ and that doesn't even take ratios into consideration. LOL Lucky #7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 ICON has the post frontal snows. Not as robust as the euro but would be a fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Took off the past couple of days from the board. Work interference and other things. The only thing I have to say is there is no way we go the next 10 days without at least one snow storm. It just wont happen. There are waves all over the place and plenty of cold air. I would bet against a big storm. But I would bet everything I own that we see at least a small event in the next week or so. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: ICON has the post frontal snows. Not as robust as the euro but would be a fun event. What did the Euro show? Sorry, long work day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, yoda said: What did the Euro show? Sorry, long work day lol. Kuchera was double. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: What did the Euro show? Sorry, long work day lol. 8-10 inches with Kuchera lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Icon gets us again on Thursday night/Friday morning with some overrunning snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON has the post frontal snows. Not as robust as the euro but would be a fun event. You would think with the clash of airmasses and this type of upper level energy that something interesting can happen. Probably one of the reasons the ens strongly support snowfall in some fashion. I could envision an intense but narrow stripe of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: You would think with the clash of airmasses and this type of upper level energy that something interesting can happen. Probably one of the reasons the ens strongly support snowfall in some fashion. I could envision an intense but narrow stripe of snow. Potentially a longer version of everyone’s favorite arctic front squall from 2015 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Maybe this will be winter 2015 version 2.0 starting 2 weeks earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Icon gets us again on Thursday night/Friday morning with some overrunning snow. Another interesting upper level setup... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Maybe this will be winter 2015 version 2.0 starting 2 weeks earlier. Even better because 2015 didn't have a 6-12" event in mid January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Potentially a longer version of everyone’s favorite arctic front squall from 2015 Exactly what I was thinking. The progression on the icon is good. Energy is in orbit around the tpv. Trough goes negative north of us with that approach. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Don’t think the GFS is going to be a dry frontal passage this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Couple dots of .5 total precip. I-81 east edit: not all snow of course, but a quick flash to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Check this out. I think we could see some major surprises in the coming week both for the good and the bad. Lots of moving parts. And no, I don't think this will effect us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Cmc is a good hit and the gfs dropped 1-2. Icon is in too. Good consensus across all guidance for at least a light event. I like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Lol. Someone hacked the cmc. 2 flush hits in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Ninja’d by Bob but the CMC is nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Someone hacked the cmc. 2 flush hits in a row. FV3 is in too. edit : CMC does what the ICON tried to do with the coastal interaction imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Someone hacked the cmc. 2 flush hits in a row. Yoder: But the CMC is rain on the second storm. I point out model particulars 7 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yoder: But the CMC is rain on the second storm. I point out model particulars 7 days out. Ji has been the one trying to take my job the past few days though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Check this out. I think we could see some major surprises in the coming week both for the good and the bad. Lots of moving parts. And no, I don't think this will effect us... If ya don't think it'll affect us...what was your reason for sharing it? Lol Just for the overall trends, or? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is a good hit and the gfs dropped 1-2. Icon is in too. Good consensus across all guidance for at least a light event. I like it. Is the GFS depicting the kind of snow that would actually accumulate? Or snow tv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: If ya don't think it'll affect us...what was your reason for sharing it? Lol Just for the overall trends, or? Because originally, Monday looked like an opportunity for a big storm. Then it disappeared to nothing and now the last few runs it's made like a 300mile shift west and organized into a coastal again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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