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January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker


Ji
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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 991 Gulf Low Superstorm for this weekend that models were seeing were one of the most epic false alarms ive seen in a while.....and we trust models at 10-15 days?

Straight epic disaster! Just watch happy hour GFS suck us all back in. Well....or just plain suck. :lol:

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17 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 991 Gulf Low Superstorm for this weekend that models were seeing were one of the most epic false alarms ive seen in a while.....and we trust models at 10-15 days?

I don’t think anybody trusts the models. But it’s the only tool we have for forecasting. Without the models we’d just be guessing. And right now all the models do is provide us with a slightly better guess. But let’s be honest. At the end of the day the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 991 Gulf Low Superstorm for this weekend that models were seeing were one of the most epic false alarms ive seen in a while.....and we trust models at 10-15 days?

False alarm? It was a longshot crappy setup. Anyone who thought that it was going to be a locked and loaded long track storm doesn't know how to read upper air patterns

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

False alarm? It was a longshot crappy setup. Anyone who thought that it was going to be a locked and loaded long track storm doesn't know how to read upper air patterns

no i knew it wasnt coming up our way but i thought at least a powerful gulf low would form and head east of the SE coast. I am only talking about 991 low in the GOM

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Just now, Ji said:

no i knew it wasnt coming up our way but i thought at least a powerful gulf low would form and head east of the SE coast. I am only talking about 991 low in the GOM

I still strongly beleive we're going to get some snowfall within 2 weeks. I'm not posting much because overnight everyone just jumped in head first and assumed things are going to break down with the quickness. The irony is the same models that have been fooling us with d10-15 looks that have barely verified once are now reliable and make complete sense that everything is doomed. I'm not sold one bit that things fall to pieces. If they do i beleive it will be temporary at worst. We'll see who's right here shortly. 

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14 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I don’t think anybody trusts the models. But it’s the only tool we have for forecasting. Without the models we’d just be guessing. And right now all the models do is provide us with a slightly better guess. But let’s be honest. At the end of the day the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do

Models do not predict weather for 5+ days, they merely give examples of it

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25 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I don’t think anybody trusts the models. But it’s the only tool we have for forecasting. Without the models we’d just be guessing. And right now all the models do is provide us with a slightly better guess. But let’s be honest. At the end of the day the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do

And dont forget.....enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got.

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not being a Deb but u realize this is like 7 minutes of sleet then rain right?

        I'll go back to my earlier post and say that while it's still most likely that this will have no impact (either due to no precip or warm temps), ground temps are extremely cold, so light rain falling at 35 degrees tomorrow could cause some icy surfaces.     We've see this happen before.

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26 minutes ago, high risk said:

        I'll go back to my earlier post and say that while it's still most likely that this will have no impact (either due to no precip or warm temps), ground temps are extremely cold, so light rain falling at 35 degrees tomorrow could cause some icy surfaces.     We've see this happen before.

Yep, happened here last year. Temp was almost 40 with rain, nothing on the cars, decks, mailboxes. BUT the ground was froze solid a good 1/4 inch!

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