psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Which is why you should take the discussion to the other thread.. it was my fault he was replying to my post earlier. I made it here because it was about how the pattern is likely to continue to cause discreet events to degrade as they approach but in retrospect I should have just kept that in the pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12z ICON is also a miss wide right with the 28th threat. If this threat is going to have any legs I would think it would have to come back on modeling by 00z tonight or 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: ugh sorry... I don't know where to post some stuff. In this case I made a post about why the pattern was causing the degradation of the specific storm threats being discussed in here but that then branched off into pattern talk in here. Maybe I should have kept it in the other thread. But there is so much cross over between the two. I just think we need to split off threads for specific threats once they get close enough to warrant their own discussion. Problem is we got this weird superstition that it kills storms so now we wait until something is within like 4 days even when we know people will start to talk about it and analyze a good looking threat way before that. But I can adapt and work with whatever you decide to do...I think this was my fault. Just now, psuhoffman said: it was my fault he was replying to my post earlier. I made it here because it was about how the pattern is likely to continue to cause discreet events to degrade as they approach but in retrospect I should have just kept that in the pattern thread. i have no idea what the correct answer is. just noticed you guys discussing things i didn't understand, and checked to make sure i wasn't in the LR thread (because seriously, i understand nothing about long range forecasting) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: it was my fault he was replying to my post earlier. I made it here because it was about how the pattern is likely to continue to cause discreet events to degrade as they approach but in retrospect I should have just kept that in the pattern thread. Tangents are going to happen in these discussions. I am not being a stickler. I replied to Ji because he was whining about having 2 threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 FWIW, I have liked having the two threads. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 12z icon picks up where the EPS left off. Hates the weekend threat but likes the 29/30th. I think thats the date to watch"the trailing wave storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 ICON has no interest in the weekend deal but has the follow up wave early next week after a clipper goes north of us. I know its unlikely but at least its there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 12z icon picks up where the EPS left off. Hates the weekend threat but likes the 29/30th. I think thats the date to watch"the trailing wave storm" I suppose of guidance keeps teasing the idea of a trailing wave over and over and over eventually maybe one will work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: FWIW, I have liked having the two threads. Same here. I bounce between the 2 threads anyway. I think the goal for this thread was to look more closely at specific threats in the next week or 2. I appreciate when people show the specific models and what they are indicating, whether cold, rain or frozen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: FWIW, I have liked having the two threads. I think it's much easier to read with less clutter. The worry and panic posts are gonna be there regardless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I suppose of guidance keeps teasing the idea of a trailing wave over and over and over eventually maybe one will work out. Thing is none have so far. The ICON had the same idea last week for this Thursday. And that is going to be a big fail. Not a great situation to be in when we are relying on perfect timing with a follow up wave to get snow. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I think it's much easier to read with less clutter. The worry and panic posts are gonna be there regardless. dont worry... those posts will be taken care of 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I suppose of guidance keeps teasing the idea of a trailing wave over and over and over eventually maybe one will work out. we have just never tried the trailing wave in a colder patter yet so maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I keep thinking I'm clicking on the wrong model run for the GFS on TT. If you click on Jan. 20 0z run for the 24th then click on every model run up until today for the same time the snow for us it shows is identical. It's unremarkable how it hasn't moved on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 GFS at 120 has a northern stream piece of energy diving down and the southern stream vort slightly more consolidated. I wonder if we could get some kind of phase or partial phase this run. Edit: Meh, next few panels it misses the connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Wasn't this rainstorm for Thursday at one time being modeled as a trailing wave snow event? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 39 minutes ago, Ji said: yea it was a bad idea. Storm Noise and long range patterns go hand in hand.....it would make more sense to have a thread for the Jan 29-30 Storm potential(if there was one). Right now there is no storm to track so both threads are being used for the same thing i posted my thoughts on this in banter. there was nothing wrong with the long range thread. if everyone utilizes the panic room and banter threads appropriately, then the actual weather threads would improve. part of the fun is when the long range thread spawns its own storm threat. some banter in all threads is probably fine, but meltdowns should go in the panic room and beer discussions should probably go in banter, etc. the other option is to go back to the way it was, but maybe having a separate thread for very long range/teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Third wave in this progression *could* be the winner if baroclinic keeps moving s and e with each wave. But alas this is more than 5 days out and it's the gfs op so grain of salt with this. Verbatim tho you can see where this sort of setup/pattern could go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Wasn't this rainstorm for Thursday at one time being modeled as a trailing wave snow event? only by the terrible GFS. Euro or GGEM never did that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I think all you can say Is that there’s a threat window for next Monday-Wednesday. Lots of moving parts. Won’t know anything concrete until at the earliest Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Third wave in this progression *could* be the winner if baroclinic keeps moving s and e with each wave. But alas this is more than 5 days out and it's the gfs op so grain of salt with this. Verbatim tho you can see where this sort of setup/pattern could go. Was gonna say...perhaps this represents a bit if potential?...Like if the timing were better? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Third wave in this progression *could* be the winner if baroclinic keeps moving s and e with each wave. But alas this is more than 5 days out and it's the gfs op so grain of salt with this. Verbatim tho you can see where this sort of setup/pattern could go. So are we rooting for the NSW to slow down a touch here to allow the SSW to amplify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Third wave in this progression *could* be the winner if baroclinic keeps moving s and e with each wave. But alas this is more than 5 days out and it's the gfs op so grain of salt with this. Verbatim tho you can see where this sort of setup/pattern could go. yea IF that idea of multiple waves along the boundary is correct then it could work. BUT...am I the only one that notices that as each "threat" window approaches the entire thermal boundary keeps trending northwest of us? From range the 20th looked like a chance. Then it was "Maybe the next one after that storm pulls in the cold". Then it was maybe the storm early next week. Now even if that came up it looks problematic for temps...and its the wave after the wave after that one? I see a trend here. I am not going to believe that the boundary will actually hold south of us until something changes. Otherwise I think the obvious nature of this current -EPO pattern has shown itself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I am not going to believe that the boundary will actually hold south of us until something changes. Otherwise I think the obvious nature of this current -EPO pattern has shown itself. Wes brought up a good point about that earlier today, which I know you read, but was right on target. If you read HM, he states maybe a better chance after this next system tomorrow and Thursday. Meanwhile HM points out things in the Plains have gotten more interesting, maybe he will get his Blizzard but as he states Some blizzard warnings out and many advisories mentioning blowing snow in the Plains. Some of the LR signal is playing out, regardless of me screwing up what it meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I’ll take the look up top at h5 on the op 12z gfs next week and let the chips fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 CMC and UK are both misses with the 28th threat, but close enough to keep following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Likewise the Fv3-GFS is very close with back to back snowstorms in that timeframe - it misses north on both occasions, but is enough to stay interested for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with everything you just said which is why I said I still have hope and I’m not saying it’s over. But “maybe guidance is wrong” isn’t exactly where you want to be and it’s a world away from where we were a week ago. For those of us who are just learning, how did we get to here, in terms of how the pattern as modeled going from epic to bleh. Edit:Whoops this should be in the pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Octopus Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 33 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Likewise the Fv3-GFS is very close with back to back snowstorms in that timeframe - it misses north on both occasions, but is enough to stay interested for now. To my untrained amateur eye, it seems like what I can see of the 12z euro output echo the Fv3 regarding the threats early next week. I only have the TT slides but it looks like the low placement and thermal structure match. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 hours ago, high risk said: While we focus on the medium range and an outside shot at a little snow as the rain ends Thursday, there appears to be a very subtle threat for tomorrow midday and afternoon. While the bulk of the rain will fall Wednesday night when temps are plenty warm, the NAM and NAM nest both show the possibility of a few light showers around Wednesday, and temperatures are only slowly going to climb into the mid and upper 30s. More relevant, the ground is insanely cold, so I could see a situation in which light rain is falling at 36 degrees, and the roads and sidewalks become icy due to the skin temps lagging far behind the air temps. I called it a subtle threat, as temperatures will be rising, and there probably won't be much precip around, but an icy surprise for some folks isn't out of the question. EDIT: the nam nest is somewhat on its own with temps staying very cold during the day tomorrow, but I wouldn't write it off Appears the GGEM jumped on board to the idea at 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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