Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 based on the last few storms I'd say our old saying of wanting the storm SE at this point is a good thingEven when it came up the coast it was rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Sometimes those major Vort's dropping into the West trend more SW, which would send our storm up the coast. I like the run, It's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Euro has something at the very end of its run. D9-10. Snow all the way down to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: based on the last few storms I'd say our old saying of wanting the storm SE at this point is a good thing Even when it came up the coast it was rain Similar overrunning scenario as the CMC after the whiff. SE GA get's smoked. lol. Still snows on us so you got your digital snow fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: based on the last few storms I'd say our old saying of wanting the storm SE at this point is a good thing Even when it came up the coast it was rain I think moving forward after Friday the airmass is a little different but my point was the old New England proverb saying Ye Ole storm cometh more norther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 27 minutes ago, LP08 said: Euro digs into Mexico with the PV pressing down further south. Maybe it’s going to try a cmc type solution. I was going to comment and say I thought LP placement wise on the CMC, it would look a whole lot better with the precip maps with a track going from outer banks to cape May, nj. Nothing else really supporting it right now however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Euro has something at the very end of its run. D9-10. Snow all the way down to Florida. Yeah looks similar to the CMC, like how active it’s looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 40 minutes ago, Ji said: As usual the ns/kicker is killing us I don’t buy the system at 120 would get buried in Texas. That’s classic what you see often times at this range 5-6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 EPS backed off on the coastal idea as well. Maybe a dozen members bring it up the coast and some of them are rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 EPS has unusually high spread d6-10. Some spread is normal but there is really no consensus on how this period plays out. The overrunning scenario that the op has actually has some decent ensemble support but even that ranges from a second big storm coming up from the south, clippers, moisture running boundaries, etc. After looking through the 12z eps run through d10 I really have no idea how any of it is going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: EPS has unusually high spread d6-10. Some spread is normal but there is really no consensus on how this period plays out. The overrunning scenario that the op has actually has some decent ensemble support but even that ranges from a second big storm coming up from the south, clippers, moisture running boundaries, etc. After looking through the 12z eps run through d10 I really have no idea how any of it is going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: As good a forecast tool as any right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 850s not bad for a storm signal on EPS and low location still looks ok but lots of things need to happen after this Thursday storm to thread the needle and get something going before the PAC acts badSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, luckyamaha said: 850s not bad for a storm signal on EPS and low location still looks ok but lots of things need to happen after this Thursday storm to thread the needle and get something going before the PAC acts bad I wouldn't be so quick to assume the pac is going to be bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 This weeks system looks juicy. Last thing we need is another 1-2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: bobs and DT looked at the same EPS and came up with different conclusions smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, snowfan said: This weeks system looks juicy. Last thing we need is another 1-2" of rain. The thing that bums me out the most about that is the fact that I love visiting bodies of water to see the process of them freezing in winter and last night and tonight will cause the ice to start to form, then back to back days we'll above freezing with rain is going to crush that. Having serious doubts I'll get my frozen river this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Nam now ends as snow Thursday here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ji said: bobs and DT looked at the same EPS and came up with different conclusions smh I took the time to click through each member's surface plots. Cluster plot may look ok but the ground truth looked pretty crappy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 Nam now ends as snow Thursday here.That too me is worse than an arctic front with an inch of snow. Nothing worst than the last 10% of a storm ending as snow making the wet pavement wetter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Just saw that. Both nams stay much cooler Wed night Thurs morning compared to the Gfs which allows less of a drop needed at the surface . Only 850s we wait for . I think the cooler surface depicted by the nams is closer to reality They were closer in temps here over the weekend rain. I made comments many times about not thinking it would get that warm but in all fairness it did warm up significantly to my east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Weekend CAD held strong here over the weekend and I think it will verify on the cooler side of guidance Wed /Thurs With a notably colder air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 ICON at 120 at 18z (end of its run) doesn’t appear to be digging as far south as 12z. Would have to imagine that not digging to Mexico is better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: ICON at 120 at 18z (end of its run) doesn’t appear to be digging as far south as 12z. Would have to imagine that not digging to Mexico is better for us. Icon is setting up a straight west to east event. Heights already rising in front of it. But it’s the Icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon is setting up a straight west to east event. Heights already rising in front of it. But it’s the Icon. Might be a simplified way to event then hoping for a closed low traverse if the gulf and getting tugged north. Seems with the wave spacing being so tight, might be preferred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Yeah seems the LOTFW ensembles have performed best lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Might be a simplified way to event then hoping for a closed low traverse if the gulf and getting tugged north. Seems with the wave spacing being so tight, might be preferred Definitely preferred. Gulf storms that bomb north up the coast are amazing but for every 1 that works 100 fail. The icon idea is much easier way to snow here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon is setting up a straight west to east event. Heights already rising in front of it. But it’s the Icon. Icon Defense- I think the Icon ended up doing quite well, when comparing and verifying its SLP track from 5 days out, with the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Icon Defense- I think the Icon ended up doing quite well, when comparing and verifying its SLP track from 5 days out, with the weekend event. I won’t blame you for getting into bed with a German model. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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