WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 This is the winter storm threat tracking thread. Only storm talk. -NAOs at D15 stays in the other thread. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is the winter storm threat tracking thread. Only storm talk. -NAOs at D15 stays in the other thread. Which one do we incessantly complain and whine in? Asking for a friend. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Which one do we incessantly complain and whine in? Asking for a friend. Both I'm sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Which one do we incessantly complain and whine in? Asking for a friend. I think every thread except Chuck's latest on why it's been so cloudy lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockabilyJunior Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I mentioned this before, but it seems to me like while the CMC is very snow happy, it is also a high recall snowstorm model. By that I mean if the CMC says no snow, then there is no snow. When there is snow, the CMC showed snow (and probably over did the totals). On the other hand, most of the time the CMC shows snow it doesn't pan out. So if the CMC is showing snow, that is a good start. I know the pattern is a bad when when it isn't showing anything. Hopefully we can get some other models showing the same storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 FV3 continues being insistent with a changeover to snow late Thursday for points N/W of the cities. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 DT is woofing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: FV3 continues being insistent with a changeover to snow late Thursday for points N/W of the cities. And it's a near-miss fish for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And it's a near-miss fish for early next week. One thing I really like is that it's a really strong storm at our latitude. It's 988mb and strenthening. Shift the storm track west and it's a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 GEFS has no interest in a coastal storm sun/mon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: GEFS has no interest in a coastal storm sun/mon. I've seen better, but...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I've seen better, but...? Inside of that mean is pretty boring honestly. It's not totally absent from the member solutions but the vast majority don't really show much. Could just be group think that could change on a dime later this week but the 12z run is uninspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Anybody got the Ukie at 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 19 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Anybody got the Ukie at 144? I edited to add the 12z run...looks like a step back from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 But HM says: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Euro digs into Mexico with the PV pressing down further south. Maybe it’s going to try a cmc type solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Euro is basically an unphased disconnected mess this run. Doesn't change the facts that the ingredients are there. I've never really liked this setup because it's too complicated and too much can go wrong. Doesn't mean I'm writing it off but it's never really had the feel on a storm that can impact our area with winter wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: Euro digs into Mexico with the PV pressing down further south. Maybe it’s going to try a cmc type solution. To me then trough is too flat and the low doesnt eject out of the gulf soon enough and goes too far east. By the time it makes its move the best case scenario might be like last year’s bomb cyclone favoring the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: Euro digs into Mexico with the PV pressing down further south. Maybe it’s going to try a cmc type solution. And is remarkably close to ICON evolution at same timestamp. Just pointing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Negnao said: To me then trough is too flat and the low doesnt eject out of the gulf soon enough and goes too far east. By the time it makes its move the best case scenario might be like last year’s bomb cyclone favoring the shore. The kicker is quicker as well coming from the west. Low comes off the SC coast but there really isn’t a path up the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Am I wrong to think we've got spacing issues between storms after Thursday's rainer? Seems like there just isn't enough room for things to amplify. Sure there's a chance for a piece to phase in but it seems just as likely for a piece to be a kicker.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 As usual the ns/kicker is killing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 So the cold comes and now it's really difficult to get a storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Ji said: As usual the ns/kicker is killing us It's too slow. Even if the kicker wasn't there midlevel temps are going to be a problem with no stream phasing. Still has the ingredients for a big storm. Need things to come together a lot better than what we're seeing on today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I'd take this. The potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 It's too slow. Even if the kicker wasn't there midlevel temps are going to be a problem with no stream phasing. Still has the ingredients for a big storm. Need things to come together a lot better than what we're seeing on today's runs. Yea on earlier runs the ns was way more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 It's too slow. Even if the kicker wasn't there midlevel temps are going to be a problem with no stream phasing. Still has the ingredients for a big storm. Need things to come together a lot better than what we're seeing on today's runs. Maybe out to sea is better..than a warm inland storm. Gives more room for following event which has colder potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's too slow. Even if the kicker wasn't there midlevel temps are going to be a problem with no stream phasing. Still has the ingredients for a big storm. Need things to come together a lot better than what we're seeing on today's runs. Maybe out to sea is better..than a warm inland storm. Gives more room for following event which has colder potential Overrunning on a boundary is far less complicated if it lines up right. We're going to get all kinds of weird looks at the coastal in the meantime. Until that is resolved, anything after it is much less resolved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's too slow. Even if the kicker wasn't there midlevel temps are going to be a problem with no stream phasing. Still has the ingredients for a big storm. Need things to come together a lot better than what we're seeing on today's runs. Maybe out to sea is better..than a warm inland storm. Gives more room for following event which has colder potential based on the last few storms I'd say our old saying of wanting the storm SE at this point is a good thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: that's good enough for me right now. I always imagine they have access to some super ensemble that give them confidence to make a statement like that...probably don't but it would be nice to think that. I always thought they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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