SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 UKIE is about to send a 970mber to Chicago by way of Dallas at 144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: UKIE is about to send a 970mber to Chicago by way of Dallas at 144 Euro no where near as amped but same bleak outcome for us cuts to the lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Good Wednesday morning all, Jan 23. Still looks worthy of following for early-middle of next week. How it evolves, unsure.... but there is still an idea of a southern origination (00z/23 EC op). EPS and latest 06z GEFS both have a surface low broadly modeled off the NJ coast Tuesday... albeit weak. So this would say modest event, but we have such a potent mid American +PNA pattern and associated diving vortex that I think the downstream flow can adjust for a more important low. (there are several members of the 06z/23 GEFS further south with a short wave than the overall ensembled depiction). Myself, I like the idea of some sort of snow event here near and northwest of I-95 (NJ/e PA northeastward into New England) sometime Monday-Tuesday into early Wednesday, followed by a week of colder than normal (30th-at least Feb 5) as depicted by the ensembles. One day in there may be even colder here, than what occurred this past Monday the 21st. Doesn't mean it will happen but thats my interpretation of the EPS/GEFS, NAEFS and their past 3 days of adjustment. Just needs another few days to figure out the interactions. WPC day 7 graphic attached. Darker green is 30-50% chi 2+ inches of snow. 644A 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 14 hours ago, purduewx80 said: 00Z NAM upped the ante further with its 100KT 925mb jet over LI/CT. It looks like the upper low over TX/NM has split into two, which helps a secondary low form along the front tomorrow night into early Thursday. PWAT's approaching January records for OKX/CHH on its 00Z runs as well. Yeah,the NAM is close to 100KT just above the inversion for Suffolk tomorrow. 30 KT sustained at the surface. One of the better winter low topped squall signals in a while. 0 1000 -49 SFC 992 14 11.8 11.2 96 0.5 11.4 181 30 285.5 287.0 284.9 308.9 8.44 2 950 381 13.8 13.8 100 0.1 13.8 188 75 291.2 293.1 289.0 320.8 10.47 3 900 838 13.6 13.5 99 0.1 13.5 197 95 295.5 297.5 290.7 326.7 10.84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 18 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah,the NAM is close to 100KT just above the inversion for Suffolk tomorrow. 30 KT sustained at the surface. One of the better winter low topped squall signals in a while. 0 1000 -49 SFC 992 14 11.8 11.2 96 0.5 11.4 181 30 285.5 287.0 284.9 308.9 8.44 2 950 381 13.8 13.8 100 0.1 13.8 188 75 291.2 293.1 289.0 320.8 10.47 3 900 838 13.6 13.5 99 0.1 13.5 197 95 295.5 297.5 290.7 326.7 10.84 Chances of a low in the Jan 30-31 period of a low colder than 4 degrees, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Good Thursday morning all, (Jan 24). While no snowstorms are clearly defined the 29th-30th, for me its still worth monitoring. WPC focus is nw of I-95. The bigger story is the Polar Vortex, modeled by the EPS/GEFS to come down to just N of L Superior around the 30th. If that occurs, Chicago is going to probably deal with a top 10 coldest day in history, certainly one of its coldest days since the mid 90's there. So while not etched in stone, looks brutal to me and I think this will spill over to our coldest day of the winter so far here around the 31st-Feb 1, snow cover or not. And, with such a volume of arctic air spilling south, something has to respond-happen downstream here along the east coast. So far, modeling just gives us a cold front with weak waves of low pressure-no big deal. WPC statistical guidance still has a minor option for us of 2+" next Tuesday or Wednesday (light green 10% rising to blue 70%). Not promising yet, and may never be. And yes, 11A-3P today, squall liner I-95 southeastward, with scattered wind gusts 45-65 MPH (coastal NJ, NYC/LI se New England) and very well modeled for the past several days by the ECMWF op runs that I checked from 00z/22,23, and now 24. 637A/24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Walt, I wonder what the chances are that we might get an Arctic outbreak in that timeframe that rivals either Jan 85 or Jan 94? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Yes, it's possible... 1/19/94 NYC CP max T 10F ... i think thats possible the 31st or 2/1. I don't want to push it much more than that, since we're still talking 7- 8 days out but yes. This outbreak is no national news right now, but I think its formidable and will be a big player in our lives from the northern Plains to NJ New England for 2-3 days. Don has been statistically pointing to this possibility. We'll see how this turns out by the end of February but it is interesting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Yes, it's possible... 1/19/94 NYC CP max T 10F ... i think thats possible the 31st or 2/1. I don't want to push it much more than that, since we're still talking 7- 8 days out but yes. This outbreak is no national news right now, but I think its formidable and will be a big player in our lives from the northern Plains to NJ New England for 2-3 days. Don has been statistically pointing to this possibility. We'll see how this turns out by the end of February but it is interesting. I assume it'll end with a mid-50s deluge on frozen ground? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, TwcMan said: Goofus The clipper is also further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 12 minutes ago, TwcMan said: Goofus Unfortunately with the Euro and other models not backing this, I doubt this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 33 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Unfortunately with the Euro and other models not backing this, I doubt this happens. It actually does on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, TwcMan said: It actually does on the EPS. And now the gefs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The GEFS looks good too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, North and West said: I assume it'll end with a mid-50s deluge on frozen ground? Doubtful. This cold will abate w potential Ohio valley to li storm between feb 2 and 6. Maybe I’m optimistic in light of Jan events. I took the warmer hefts for this as I see cold very slowly eroding in a deep overrunning situation, this presuming the excessive arctic cold actually barrels into Chi Buffalo. Long long ways to go. Prefer t comment only prior to Feb 2. Btw many new Englanders are aware that a winter snow storm is relatively common around Feb 567. Someone is welcome to check the stats on frequency. Later. Walt 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 That's not a clipper it's rain to snow behind a front. Happens about once every twenty years but shown ten times every winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 33 minutes ago, wdrag said: Doubtful. This cold will abate w potential Ohio valley to li storm between feb 2 and 6. Maybe I’m optimistic in light of Jan events. I took the warmer hefts for this as I see cold very slowly eroding in a deep overrunning situation, this presuming the excessive arctic cold actually barrels into Chi Buffalo. Long long ways to go. Prefer t comment only prior to Feb 2. Btw many new Englanders are aware that a winter snow storm is relatively common around Feb 567. Someone is welcome to check the stats on frequency. Later. Walt Thanks for follow-up! I was kidding and don't possess half the knowledge some of the people here do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 41 minutes ago, RedSky said: That's not a clipper it's rain to snow behind a front. Happens about once every twenty years but shown ten times every winter. No it isn't It's a wave riding along the arctic front. Every model now has this. Euro is close to something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No it isn't It's a wave riding along the arctic front. Every model now has this. Euro is close to something bigger. There's a shortwave ahead of it, would be nice if that could trend bigger so the following one would have to dig further south. Either that or we get some arctic squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's a shortwave ahead of it, would be nice if that could trend bigger so the following one would have to dig further south. Either that or we get some arctic squalls. Agree It would be nice for the clipper to come further south to give us a fluff event Very cold air comes rushing in afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Anybody seen the 12z ECM day 5-6? It's like emptying an AK47 into our dead horse winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Anybody seen the 12z ECM day 5-6? It's like emptying an AK47 into our dead horse winter. Talking about the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Talking about the cold? the snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 25 minutes ago, RedSky said: the snow Eps is also showing the anafront snow This will be interesting to track in the upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 32 minutes ago, RedSky said: Anybody seen the 12z ECM day 5-6? It's like emptying an AK47 into our dead horse winter. I don't think I follow. You mean it will kill the winter even more? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is also showing the anafront snow This will be interesting to track in the upcoming days. Appears to be hinting at a Miller B, will be interesting to see individual members. I like the trends here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: Appears to be hinting at a Miller B, will be interesting to see individual members. I like the trends here. The Euro op always shows signs of a possible transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Yeah the EPS is interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Yeah the EPS is interesting. Another rainstorm verbatim but the PV has been trending deeper into the OH/TN Valleys and Mid-Atlantic the past few EPS runs. Generally above normal heights around Greenland as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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