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January 30, 2019 Snow Squall Observations Thread


bluewave
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46 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Good question. I did some quick stats on that this morning.

There have been 39 seasons with 40 or more inches of snow in NYC in the last 150 years. Figuring that the average snowfall by January 31st is roughly 14.5 inches using 150 year norms, only 6 of those 39 winters have had less than 14.5 inches of snow by February 1st. They were

1895/96 3.3 inches by Jan 31 46.3 for the season,

1906/7 12.3 inches by Jan 31 and 53.2 for the season,

1913/14 1.6, and 40.5

1915/16 8.8,  and 50.7

1966/67 10.5 and 51.5

2009/10 with 14.5 and 51.4

With 7.1 inches now and hopes dimming of reaching 14.5 by Feb 1, one would have to think that the odds were low of reaching 40 inches this season. However in 2 of the 6 seasons where that did occur, record snowfalls for the month were established in February and March. The 1895/96 season saw the March record of 30.5 inches and of course recently in 2009/10 the February record was established at 36.9 inches. Both monthly records still stand.

As would be expected all of the 6 seasons that were below average on Feb 1 but that ended up over 40 inches for the season had significant snows in the time period afterward. Notably

Feb 25-26 2010 - 20.9 inches and February 10, 2010 10.0 inches

February 7, 1967 - 12.5, March 22, 1967 9.0 inches

March 6, 1916 - 7.6

March 1-2, 1914 - 14.5, Feb 13-14 1914 9.7 inches

February 4-5, 1907 - 11.0 and March 10, 1907 6.0

March 15-16 1896 - 12.0 inches and March 2 1896 10.0 inches

 

 

 

Wow this is some awesome work by you :)  Much as I would like to see a 2009-10 repeat (minus the early February fringe event of course lol) I think that what excludes it is we had a major December event which dumped 15 inches at JFK.  We've not seen any coastals like that at all this season so far.

 

I would love to see a repeat of the 1966-67 season, however I think we had a major event on Christmas Eve that year, maybe the best Christmas ever for the tristate!

So then we are left with:

 

1895-96, 1906-07, 1913-14, 1915-16

The remaining analogs are all over 100 years old :P  But there is something intriguing- because 1913-14 was mentioned as a possible analog and we had a triple phaser that year in March!

 

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1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said:

 The only storm I can remember where nyc was snowing while I was raining in Armonk! Basically as we were just ever so slightly east and NYC west of the nearly due North/South R/S line. We did end up changing over pretty early on anyway, recieved around 18 or so. 5-10 miles to the east was a huge cutoff. (radar is saved on this page: http://www.severeweathervideo.com/nyc_storm_blog_10.html)

Prob one of my favorite storms due to its odd/retrograde track - though would not have thought so if I actually was a few miles to the east of the line, lol.

Just east of JFK and we changed to snow in the mid afternoon period and it ended up being the only storm here to ever give over an inch of rain and then over a foot of snow (I think the March 1993 triple phaser did that too, but in reverse lol.)

 

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

Certainly not a bad look on the UKMET.

 GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif.89762da7a0b3a475acc7714931d56ce5.gif

I’m not sold on that event.  Initially I felt the majority of ensembles and Ops that want to bury the initial shortwave into Texas and the western Gulf were wrong but given the energy giving into the Plains the same time frame, they may be correct.  If that happens it’s unlikely that storm would ever be able to eject out of the Gulf and do much.  We need to hope the system shown on the 00Z Op Euro over Texas around 102-108 ejects straight across the Gulf states and turns the corner   

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9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Someone in the very deep south might be in line for snow if it digs for China like some runs have shown. I'd love to see where that would've ended up.

Yeah, I think that look would easily produce snow into GA and the Carolinas. An old school rule of thumb for low pressure movement is to follow the thickness lines in the 6-12hr time frame. We'll see how things evolve the next couple days, but in general there was less evidence for a big coastal on the overnight ops/ensembles. A lot of spread though after the weekend.

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We have seen many times how phasing appears as we get closer but the Pac sucks

 

What needs to change for us to get a snowier pattern here? I kept reading the MJO was going to be more favorable, the NAO was going negative, etc and none of it has happened yet. Instead we are getting the dreaded wet cold, dry, and only cold recently.

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5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

What needs to change for us to get a snowier pattern here? I kept reading the MJO was going to be more favorable, the NAO was going negative, etc and none of it has happened yet. Instead we are getting the dreaded wet cold, dry, and only cold recently.

The Pacific needs to calm down for starters 

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29 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

What needs to change for us to get a snowier pattern here? I kept reading the MJO was going to be more favorable, the NAO was going negative, etc and none of it has happened yet. Instead we are getting the dreaded wet cold, dry, and only cold recently.

The problem is the roaring, unrelenting Pacific jet. This started in late November and hasn’t stopped since, over 2 months now. Everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form it gets blasted apart from the raging Pacific flow and flow goes right back to zonal/semizonal and we get screwed. Hope and pray the 0z ensembles are wrong about a big +EPO forming. If that happens it’s game over to start February 

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49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The problem is the roaring, unrelenting Pacific jet. This started in late November and hasn’t stopped since, over 2 months now. Everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form it gets blasted apart from the raging Pacific flow and flow goes right back to zonal/semizonal and we get screwed. Hope and pray the 0z ensembles are wrong about a big +EPO forming. If that happens it’s game over to start February 

I'm always leery when a parade of storms hits the west coast. And that has been occurring since late November.  And the latest GFS shows that trend continuing at the beginning of Feb.  

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm always leery when a parade of storms hits the west coast. And that has been occurring since late November.  And the latest GFS shows that trend continuing at the beginning of Feb.  

Right, same repeating pattern since late November. Any +PNA just gets blasted apart by the Pacific jet crashing into it. What is being shown on the long range ensembles (+EPO) going into February is very, very troubling to say the least 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

Right, same repeating pattern since late November. Any +PNA just gets blasted apart by the Pacific jet crashing into it. What is being shown on the long range ensembles (+EPO) going into February is very, very troubling to say the least 

I agree. The Nino was under considered in many winter forecasts. As was the Pacific as a whole during the months leading up to winter.

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51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right, same repeating pattern since late November. Any +PNA just gets blasted apart by the Pacific jet crashing into it. What is being shown on the long range ensembles (+EPO) going into February is very, very troubling to say the least 

I’m going to interpret this as you have your doubts about a snowy February based off of this

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3 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

This is one of those winters so far that threading the proverbial snow needle is the only way to get a big snowstorm around here.  I still have faith in February. 

Lets be honest, most snow threats are thread the needle for the coast and immediate NYC metro area.  That's what makes this last two decade run pretty much a once in a lifetime stretch outside of a few years with everything coming together perfectly at the right time on so many occasions.  We're due a bad luck winter or three, law of averages.  Not saying this winter will finish as a ratter but we've been really spoiled the last 15 or so years and should put it all in perspective.

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