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bluewave

January 30, 2019 Snow Squall Observations Thread

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24 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Just checked and para had the storm since last Monday it showed what happened Sunday here ....take look

B4CE2A33-3CEF-4A24-8EDE-2278260FA62D.png

B2A7EA84-74D9-4A52-8C80-060257228F48.png

That’s actually very good. Reminds me when the euro nailed Sandy landfall location 120 hours out.

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27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

1987-01-22.jpg

That was one of the few times my particular area got smoked, Middlesex Co. Wicked storm, came up fast, stranded people on the GSP.

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25 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

That was one of the few times my particular area got smoked, Middlesex Co. Wicked storm, came up fast, stranded people on the GSP.

That period from late Jan to March was probably our snowiest of the decade. Not saying much but I do remember having 4 days off school

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That FV3 run is a keeper. 

2 storms including a KU that brings snow to Houston, Savannah, damn close to Orlando... 

NYC goes subzero multiple times and widespread -10s in the HV twice.

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10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That FV3 run is a keeper. 

2 storms including a KU that brings snow to Houston, Savannah, damn close to Orlando... 

NYC goes subzero multiple times and widespread -10s in the HV twice.

Just remember it’s a day 8 storm, you know what this model likes to do to day 8 storms...

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11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That FV3 run is a keeper. 

2 storms including a KU that brings snow to Houston, Savannah, damn close to Orlando... 

NYC goes subzero multiple times and widespread -10s in the HV twice.

What's a KU storm? Can't find on Google

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2 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Just remember it’s a day 8 storm, you know what this model likes to do to day 8 storms...

Oh obviously. It was a ridiculous run as a whole.

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Big east coast snowstorm. Named after the authors of this book that you should buy.

K for (Paul Kocin) U for (Louis Uccelini)

https://bookstore.ametsoc.org/catalog/book/northeast-snowstorms-volume-i-overview-volume-ii-cases

Met Kocin once in college. Good guy. Actually showed up to a house party with a bunch of us college Met majors after giving a discussion earlier that day.  Thought he was always good on TWC back in the day. 

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9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They're due for a volume III especially with all the storms in the past 15 years

Yeah, for sure! Doubt he'll be working too too much longer unless he really wants to, so he'll have time to write. 

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4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Would have to be some major cold air being drawn in to get snow with the low in that position especially with mixing all the way up to Maine

314t2fl.png

This setup and track is somewhat similar to the Feb25-26 2010 storm.

20.9 inches in Central Park, 35 IMBY in Orange County and a raging rain storm through most of New England all the way up through Vermont. That still ranks as the most extreme rain/snow line I've ever seen.

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2 hours ago, Edubbs83 said:

Met Kocin once in college. Good guy. Actually showed up to a house party with a bunch of us college Met majors after giving a discussion earlier that day.  Thought he was always good on TWC back in the day. 

He grew up in Syosset.

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11 hours ago, MANDA said:

Think the main thing to take away from EPS this afternoon is that there is the threat of storm along the east coast in about a week.

Even stronger signal for another bitter cold arctic outbreak by Sunday into last week of January and perhaps into first week February.

Much higher confidence in that than any storm details at this point...overall pattern on latest eps can deliver the goods as far as extreme

cold in concerned.

I remember asking Don if this winter would be remembered more for the snow or the cold and I thought it might be the cold because of we were lacking a benchmark track this year and almost every storm no matter the track has been punctuated by Arctic outbreaks, so if we get the cold minus the snow looks like it will more of the useless uncomfortable windy headache-inducing cold weather.

 

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10 hours ago, TwcMan said:

14/15 flipped right around this time. Still plenty of time for NYC to at least reach average snowfall. Things look better now than they did in late Dec/early Jan, so that’s a huge positive. Pacific looks a lot better and I’d rather have a cooperative pacific over Atlantic. We have the cold now, just need some moisture.

you actually dont need it to be very cold for it to snow, as a matter of fact most of our big snow winters weren't extremely cold, all you need is average temps for snow this time of year.

 

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11 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Those winters got started a bit earlier and did not have a strong pac jet..14/15 did flip on a dime...

True, I'd like to see some stats on this, but I think that all our big (40"+) snowfall winters had at least one major snowfall before February 1.

Average (around 30") is still doable though.

 

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6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

314t2fl.png

This setup and track is somewhat similar to the Feb25-26 2010 storm.

20.9 inches in Central Park, 35 IMBY in Orange County and a raging rain storm through most of New England all the way up through Vermont. That still ranks as the most extreme rain/snow line I've ever seen.

 The only storm I can remember where nyc was snowing while I was raining in Armonk! Basically as we were just ever so slightly east and NYC west of the nearly due North/South R/S line. We did end up changing over pretty early on anyway, recieved around 18 or so. 5-10 miles to the east was a huge cutoff. (radar is saved on this page: http://www.severeweathervideo.com/nyc_storm_blog_10.html)

Prob one of my favorite storms due to its odd/retrograde track - though would not have thought so if I actually was a few miles to the east of the line, lol.

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8 hours ago, tomcatct said:

Not the one i used to see on the weather channel..

His parents are Yugoslavian but he was born in Long Island best winter weather expert

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Regarding Mon-Tue (28-29). Still on the table, not as deeply vertical northern-southern stream phaser that closes off over De-New England, but still a rapidly moving system that originates in the Gulf of Mexico or event further south on Sunday, then travels rapidly up the east coast and intensifies with another serious 1 day cold shot behind it around the 30th-31st, which could rival yesterdays coldest one day average temps here (AVP-NYC CP) since Feb 14, 2016. Worthy of monitoring ensemble trends.  Looks interesting to me, especially along or more likely, west of I-95.  Right now it appears modest but it does have potential to be larger than the ensembles imply (00z/22 EPS & 06z/22 GEFS), in part because they cant figure out the primary 1 day event, and have it spread over 2-3 days. I'm giving this time to ferret out the details and concentration of the event. I wont post again on this for another day or three, til I feel its more informative. Enjoy your writings. (btw, noticed for the past couple of days. modeled sw wind gusts 40-45kt NJ coast Thu morning). 647A/22

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

True, I'd like to see some stats on this, but I think that all our big (40"+) snowfall winters had at least one major snowfall before February 1.

Average (around 30") is still doable though.

 

Good question. I did some quick stats on that this morning.

There have been 39 seasons with 40 or more inches of snow in NYC in the last 150 years. Figuring that the average snowfall by January 31st is roughly 14.5 inches using 150 year norms, only 6 of those 39 winters have had less than 14.5 inches of snow by February 1st. They were

1895/96 3.3 inches by Jan 31 46.3 for the season,

1906/7 12.3 inches by Jan 31 and 53.2 for the season,

1913/14 1.6, and 40.5

1915/16 8.8,  and 50.7

1966/67 10.5 and 51.5

2009/10 with 14.5 and 51.4

With 7.1 inches now and hopes dimming of reaching 14.5 by Feb 1, one would have to think that the odds were low of reaching 40 inches this season. However in 2 of the 6 seasons where that did occur, record snowfalls for the month were established in February and March. The 1895/96 season saw the March record of 30.5 inches and of course recently in 2009/10 the February record was established at 36.9 inches. Both monthly records still stand.

As would be expected all of the 6 seasons that were below average on Feb 1 but that ended up over 40 inches for the season had significant snows in the time period afterward. Notably

Feb 25-26 2010 - 20.9 inches and February 10, 2010 10.0 inches

February 7, 1967 - 12.5, March 22, 1967 9.0 inches

March 6, 1916 - 7.6

March 1-2, 1914 - 14.5, Feb 13-14 1914 9.7 inches

February 4-5, 1907 - 11.0 and March 10, 1907 6.0

March 15-16 1896 - 12.0 inches and March 2 1896 10.0 inches

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Regarding Mon-Tue (28-29). Still on the table, not as deeply vertical northern-southern stream phaser that closes off over De-New England, but still a rapidly moving system that originates in the Gulf of Mexico or event further south on Sunday, then travels rapidly up the east coast and intensifies with another serious 1 day cold shot behind it around the 30th-31st, which could rival yesterdays coldest one day average temps here (AVP-NYC CP) since Feb 14, 2016. Worthy of monitoring ensemble trends.  Looks interesting to me, especially along or more likely, west of I-95.  Right now it appears modest but it does have potential to be larger than the ensembles imply (00z/22 EPS & 06z/22 GEFS), in part because they cant figure out the primary 1 day event, and have it spread over 2-3 days. I'm giving this time to ferret out the details and concentration of the event. I wont post again on this for another day or three, til I feel its more informative. Enjoy your writings. (btw, noticed for the past couple of days. modeled sw wind gusts 40-45kt NJ coast Thu morning). 647A/22

Thanks Walt, the cold shot behind that one should be of short duration just like this one?

 

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