Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,393
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NW_of_GYX
    Newest Member
    NW_of_GYX
    Joined
bluewave

January 30, 2019 Snow Squall Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

EPS was really good all around, so there's hope yet. 

Things do look Pacific driven though, not sure if we're gonna get much Atlantic blocking. 

It worked out in 13/14 & 14/15 though.

Those winters got started a bit earlier and did not have a strong pac jet..14/15 did flip on a dime...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

14/15 flipped right around this time. Still plenty of time for NYC to at least reach average snowfall. Things look better now than they did in late Dec/early Jan, so that’s a huge positive. Pacific looks a lot better and I’d rather have a cooperative pacific over Atlantic. We have the cold now, just need some moisture.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

GFS is a warm northern stream wave/frontal passage.

Para is a coastal storm ( looks warm on the ncep site )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Para is a coastal storm ( looks warm on the ncep site )

Yea, it’s a rainstorm on that model, too warm

 

  • Confused 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, it’s a rainstorm on that model, too warm

 

Its close

970 low east of SNJ

Huge storm

We will continue to track it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

That's like something I would have doodled in geometry class, and then erased because it was too unrealistic.

CMC had a coastal bomb but it was too warm for everyone. This has a lot of potential .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, it’s a rainstorm on that model, too warm

 

how do you call this model run a rainstorm  ?

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Frame before. Keep in in mind the GFS thermals are unreliable.

 

850's are fine on that frame surface is a couple degrees above 32 metro and east - it still translates to snow on that model run not rain there is plenty of cold enough air available to be drawn in after this frame

fv3p_T850_neus_27.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Frame before. Keep in in mind the GFS thermals are unreliable.

image.thumb.png.b41fa8e777dcf7eef3583e849b8d66d7.png

Would have to be some major cold air being drawn in to get snow with the low in that position especially with mixing all the way up to Maine

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Would have to be some major cold air being drawn in to get snow with the low in that position especially with mixing all the way up to Maine

970 low can do that

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Snow88 said:

970 low can do that

i think many of us would still be sleet/rain on that one. It would be so close, but close ain't good enough for our area. We need to be far from the R/S line in my experience. BUt that's probably not what it will look like anyway, right

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Would have to be some major cold air being drawn in to get snow with the low in that position especially with mixing all the way up to Maine

in late January with ocean water temps cool enough to not interfere much it  can create its own dynamics to produce frozen just inland of the coast in that position and when it moves northeast towards eastern long island everyone turns to snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

in late January with ocean water temps cool enough to not interfere much it  can create its own dynamics to produce frozen just inland of the coast in that position and when it moves northeast towards eastern long island everyone turns to snow

Good points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

since this is a gulf low the gfs is tossed until 12z the morning of the storm 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

since this is a gulf low the gfs is tossed until 12z the morning of the storm 

Lol forky

 

 

Hey how did para do with the last storm cause gfs is useless

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Lol forky

 

 

Hey how did para do with the last storm cause gfs is useless

Just checked and para had the storm since last Monday it showed what happened Sunday here ....take look

B4CE2A33-3CEF-4A24-8EDE-2278260FA62D.png

B2A7EA84-74D9-4A52-8C80-060257228F48.png

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How many digital feet of snow has the Para had this winter so far? I would estimate several feet .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Para is literally a January 87 redux 

Can you tell us which exact date that storm was so I can look it up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Para is literally a January 87 redux 

I was thinking 1993 but less intense. At least track looks similar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×