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bluewave

January 30, 2019 Snow Squall Observations Thread

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54 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

All kinds of solutions will be on the table from models this far out.  Not surprising.  I am more interested in how the teles are looking around that time frame. 

Varies depending on the model/run but the EPS shows a shift in the PNA and AO around that time, with near-neutral values on the 27th. NAO had been forecast to go negative this week but that appears to be a failure on its part. We'll see if it does by the end of the month. To me, pattern change = lower predictability than 'normal', so this one could be all over the place until energy is better sampled Thu-Fri.

eps_tele.png.5ff2d26a25e3b0ce9955a30ddf9f5385.png

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9 minutes ago, David-LI said:

anything on the euro?

No bueno. LI and SE MA get some light snow, but the Gulf low amplifies over the Gulf Stream and then loses its oomph as the trough digging into the Rockies/Midwest launches it out to sea.

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CMC hugs and rain, Euro south and out, GFS ignores all together. Pleeenty of time for models to continue disagreeing though. So far right on track for the season.

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

One way or another this will be a non event. Just our luck, I think my gut tells me February will be a snowy month and I mean very snowy

I disagree pattern isn’t going to switch just like turning on a light. 

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33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Weather Model

We all know this will come west over time. Much rather have it there than the Canadian solution.

Damn thing dug to China.

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7 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The EPS looks good , it`s cold with some very deep members 

The EPS members don't look that encouraging to me as of now.  Granted they can and will change in the days ahead but 12z 01/21 EPS show 6 out of 51 members giving CP 6"+  (3 of the six give 8-12" and the other 3 are right around 6) and the majority of the other 45 + the control give CP between a coating and 3" over the next 10 days (thru 12Z 1/31) that is not encouraging signal as of right now.

Like I said things are likely to change several times over the next week but taking this run of the EPS at face value not much to write home about.

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13 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The EPS looks good , it`s cold with some very deep members 

Can you, or someone else who is more knowledgeable than I answer where the cold comes from on the EPS members? The OP euro didn’t seem to have much cold available if I’m looking at it properly, thanks.

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Just now, White Gorilla said:

Can we please stop with the "it is over" comments?  I get the discouragement so far, but we have a long way to go and no matter what any model tells you today, it could flip 180 tomorrow.  

Totally right. We are in the heart of Winter...February is historically a great month for snow and March is no slouch. Plus, backloaded Winters have been a common theme over the last half of this decade.

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14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

The EPS members don't look that encouraging to me as of now.  Granted they can and will change in the days ahead but 12z 01/21 EPS show 6 out of 51 members giving CP 6"+  (3 of the six give 8-12" and the other 3 are right around 6) and the majority of the other 45 + the control give CP between a coating and 3" over the next 10 days (thru 12Z 1/31) that is not encouraging signal as of right now.

Like I said things are likely to change several times over the next week but taking this run of the EPS at face value not much to write home about.

 

The skill is not in the snow maps. 

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12 minutes ago, romba said:

Can you, or someone else who is more knowledgeable than I answer where the cold comes from on the EPS members? The OP euro didn’t seem to have much cold available if I’m looking at it properly, thanks.

The EPS is very cold once the front clears on Friday. 

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This is going to jump around a lot. The encouraging thing is that the 00z ECMWF tried to show some North Atlantic ridging with a Southern stream trying to undercut it. The main difference between the 00z run and the current 12z run is a trough that swings down through Southeast Canada on day 7. That feature was basically non existent on the 00z run and it's certainly possible that will go away.

Weather Model

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To anyone who doubts Dr. No, please look at the last storm we got. EURO said ice for the north, mild and rain to the south followed by arctic air for over a week.

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14 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The skill is not in the snow maps. 

Trust me I know that.  But I was just trying to put it in simple terms for others.  If your comment above applies to snow maps then it would certainly apply to your original post about individual members being "very deep".  The individual members and individual members snow totals are directly related. 

Looking at the 500 EPS mean also supports the lack of snow on the individual member maps.  First vort is allowed to escape east (no phasing) while deeper arctic s/w dives into and through the mid-west.

All of this is not really worth discussing since as I said the op and the eps will change many times between now and next Tuesday my only point was that looking at this one single run of the eps it was not very encouraging.  Can almost guarantee the 00Z op / eps will have a different solution since we are 7-8 days away.

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2 hours ago, romba said:

For the coastal, for the month, for the season, or all of the above?

Through about day 7-8 on the op run. Day 8-10 was colder but that’s long range as we’ve seen often the last month. As someone else noted the EPS looks better Wiith earlier and more sustained cold.  I’d like to see the mjo tun through 7-8-1 instead of 4-5-6. Also would like to see the pac jet weaken and not keep attacking the ridge out west. 

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14 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Reminds me of the Boxing Day storm!

Boxing day had tons of blocking

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16 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Reminds me of the Boxing Day storm!

That looks nothing at all like Boxing Day 

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Think the main thing to take away from EPS this afternoon is that there is the threat of storm along the east coast in about a week.

Even stronger signal for another bitter cold arctic outbreak by Sunday into last week of January and perhaps into first week February.

Much higher confidence in that than any storm details at this point...overall pattern on latest eps can deliver the goods as far as extreme

cold in concerned.

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14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Think the main thing to take away from EPS this afternoon is that there is the threat of storm along the east coast in about a week.

Even stronger signal for another bitter cold arctic outbreak by Sunday into last week of January and perhaps into first week February.

Much higher confidence in that than any storm details at this point...overall pattern on latest eps can deliver the goods as far as extreme

cold in concerned.

Good Post. 

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15 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Think the main thing to take away from EPS this afternoon is that there is the threat of storm along the east coast in about a week.

Even stronger signal for another bitter cold arctic outbreak by Sunday into last week of January and perhaps into first week February.

Much higher confidence in that than any storm details at this point...overall pattern on latest eps can deliver the goods as far as extreme

cold in concerned.

I don't think too many people are all that crazy about extreme cold. I mean, Ulan Bator is hardly a tourist destination....

 

 

 

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EPS was really good all around, so there's hope yet. 

Things do look Pacific driven though, not sure if we're gonna get much Atlantic blocking. 

It worked out in 13/14 & 14/15 though.

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