Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Even if that's true it'll still only last maybe 10 minutes if not less. Not enough to drop more than a light dusting. most thunderstorms only last about that long. Its more about the intensity and rapid drop in visibility than accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Going to be an an obscene lake Effect band in the Watertown area. I'm just hoping that squall comes to fruition tomorrow. Just drizzling here at Union Square now after a brief period of light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Still a shot at something late Friday. Wouldn’t need much QPF to get a couple of inches. The confluence looks to be weakening in Canada the last few runs. The problem is the western US upper pattern is becoming less ridgy and that’s preventing this from possibly being a surprise moderate event IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: Mt Holly bumped up totals in their latest briefing https://www.facebook.com/256261011073971/posts/2325760850790633 That was from yesterday afternoon and is out of date. They lowered totals this morning, as did Upton and they'll update again in the next 2 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 46 minutes ago, RU848789 said: That was from yesterday afternoon and is out of date. They lowered totals this morning, as did Upton and they'll update again in the next 2 hours... Oops. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 850’s are cold, problem obviously is the surface for areas closer to the city. That 32 degree line is gonna drop quickly later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, TwcMan said: 850’s are cold, problem obviously is the surface for areas closer to the city. That 32 degree line is gonna drop quickly later on. Yep the persistent (albeit light) southeast wind is not a friend to us coastal folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Best forcing in eastern PA right now. That will push east and will cause our changeover later on. Temperature here is 36 and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, TwcMan said: 850’s are cold, problem obviously is the surface for areas closer to the city. That 32 degree line is gonna drop quickly later on. I think it will immediately begin dropping south around 5:06pm once the sun is set. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think it will immediately begin dropping south around 5:06pm once the sun is set. According to the HRRRRRRRR NYC doesn't see 32° until 05z. 12 and 3k NAM 07z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think it will immediately begin dropping south around 5:06pm once the sun is set. We’ll have the “moon angle” to worry about then.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 23 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think it will immediately begin dropping south around 5:06pm once the sun is set. Radar is showing snow just to the west of NYC. We will all change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Radar is showing snow just to the west of NYC. We will all change over. Still rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 HRRR has been fluctuating all day, but the latest run has more snow for 95. Has me at 1.8" in the Edison area with surface temps flipping from 37F and rain on the simulated radar at 7 pm, to 33F and snow on the simulated radar at 8 pm, with snow continuing until 11 pm, when the surface temp hits 32F. And by midnight the surface is down to 30F and dropping quickly (28F by 1 am), so flash freeze of any slush is a real risk. If I get 1" or more of slush, I'll be shoveling it at midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Radar is showing snow just to the west of NYC. We will all change over. No it's not. We can still get something later, but it's a ways off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Subzero whiteout on deck up there and a yardstick won't cut it. Epic. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 142 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019 NYZ007-008-300245- /O.UPG.KBUF.WC.A.0002.190130T2200Z-190131T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WC.W.0002.190130T2200Z-190131T2300Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190201T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 142 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 4 feet in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero expected. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties with highest snow amounts over the Tug Hill Plateau. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 4 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Still rain here. 1.5 before switch to rain, another under performer . Weird storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: 1.5 before switch to rain, another under performer . Weird storm I was just going to ask what you recorded before the changeover. I didn't have time to measure this morning. Can't believe we never switched back to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Pretty damn good job by Upton FWIW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 the nam shows the best lift from the snow squall intersecting the dgz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Pretty damn good job by Upton FWIW. And the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Tomorrow is going to be very interesting with the snow squall. It's going to be like a thunderstorm rolling through the area for about 20 mins and then shut off but very dark skies before the wave ( like lake effect) This can drop a dusting to an inch for the coast. I w ouldnt be shocked to see white out conditions with these squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 33 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I was just going to ask what you recorded before the changeover. I didn't have time to measure this morning. Can't believe we never switched back to snow. I was total opposite of what mt holly predicted lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: And the nam Gfs was too cold ironically 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 27 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the nam shows the best lift from the snow squall intersecting the dgz Could easily be this winter's 15 minutes of fame, unfortunately I mean that literally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Could easily be this winter's 15 minutes of fame, unfortunately I mean that literally. It's only January lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, rgwp96 said: I was total opposite of what mt holly predicted lol What is your seasonal total so far? I'm at 12.75" including today. Pretty amazing that we went through November, December, and basically all of January only to get a foot of snow. First week of February starting out warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Pretty damn good job by Upton FWIW. Not here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Keep rooting for something on Friday...this would be the biggest event since November for the coast and you’d probably see 15:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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