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bluewave

January 30, 2019 Snow Squall Observations Thread

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10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol at the weenie NYC snow hole. 

Fv3 definitely an uptick at 18z as were the RGEM and HDRPS, granted they went from nothing to not much.

This map makes no sense. It gives me 5.5 which would be great but gives places north and west of me less. not going to happen. 

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14 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

This map makes no sense. It gives me 5.5 which would be great but gives places north and west of me less. not going to happen. 

The Boston area members in the New England forum, I’m sure, would certainly agree with you. As always .....

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14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I expect a dusting at best tomorrow night, but very much looking forward to this! 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_44.png

This should be intense lol

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Gfs shows an inch or 2 for the coast and slightly more inland with snow showers for Wednesday

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Gfs shows an inch or 2 for the coast and slightly more inland with snow showers for Wednesday

In other words, it'll be sunny and 70?

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29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs shows an inch or 2 for the coast and slightly more inland with snow showers for Wednesday

Watch the system for Friday evening although the bowling ball in Canada may suppress it to our south 

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36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Watch the system for Friday evening although the bowling ball in Canada may suppress it to our south 

Para gfs shifted slightly northward. Close.

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Para gfs shifted slightly northward. Close.

There’s more room I think for this one to come north for sure than the last event that got suppressed 

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Para gfs has 2-4 inches for the coast for tomorrow

88 what does it show just inland IS THAT 2 - 4 ALSO OR MORE LIKE 3 - 6 ? CAN YOU POST IT ?

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Hope for the downtrodden snowless masses?  At least west of the Hudson, although the simulated radar shows the changeover just happening for NYC at 04Z with what looks like a couple of hours of snow after the end of the run, so maybe they'd get a couple of inches in that scenario.  And especially after the NWS lowered snowfall totals, especially along the 95 corridor with nada for NYC - and they lowered snowfall amounts for the advisory areas, but didn't drop any of the advisories (odd to have advisories, though, for counties N of 276/195 which have a 3" criterion).  

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

No photo description available.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

A snowbow?

I've never actually seen that!

I saw a snow squall in clear sunny blue skies during the passage of an Arctic front a few years ago and something very weird back in the early 90s in December- an intense hour of snow with 2 inches during a clear moonlit night (a full moon actually.)  That snow squall stayed parked near JFK for the whole hour lol.

 

The snow flakes were the size of dollar bills! Or seemed like it lol.  I've always wanted to see a snowbow, a moonbow and a snownado lol.

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58 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Hope for the downtrodden snowless masses?  At least west of the Hudson, although the simulated radar shows the changeover just happening for NYC at 04Z with what looks like a couple of hours of snow after the end of the run, so maybe they'd get a couple of inches in that scenario.  And especially after the NWS lowered snowfall totals, especially along the 95 corridor with nada for NYC - and they lowered snowfall amounts for the advisory areas, but didn't drop any of the advisories (odd to have advisories, though, for counties N of 276/195 which have a 3" criterion).  

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

No photo description available.

 

 

Upton showing 0 here makes no sense

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Upton showing 0 here makes no sense

They probably believe all the precip will be gone by the time the BL is cold enough although even I would go with "<1" just to cover my behind. 

You know it's bad when we're talking about the difference between nothing and a dusting.

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Models still going for one of our more impressive snow squalls in a while on Wednesday.

 

36C13EF9-7B0A-4DCB-83DC-536C7A5AFB10.thumb.png.7cf4a391cbcd8bdb8c7451067a12f464.png

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models still going for one of our more impressive snow squalls in a while on Wednesday.

 

36C13EF9-7B0A-4DCB-83DC-536C7A5AFB10.thumb.png.7cf4a391cbcd8bdb8c7451067a12f464.png

I want to see one of those amazing ones where you get blinding snowfall rates with clear skies and get 2 inches in one hour!

 

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I want to see one of those amazing ones where you get blinding snowfall rates with clear skies and get 2 inches in one hour!

 

Maybe an insane hourly rate like that but prob wouldn't last an hour!

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All the 12z hi-res guidance has a long squall line tomorrow; will be interesting to see whether a meso-low develops nearby as some hi-res and even globals show. The upper jet structure and PVA support it; if so, someone near that low track could see 2-3" but in general I think it's a 1" in <30 min type setup for most.  Those lapse rates in excess of 9C/km may drag some of the 50KT+ winds down from aloft. Also note the cloud tops at or colder than -30C on the HRRR below - that may support some lightning within the line. 

image.thumb.png.b127932653b769fa262b7e4dc8b306f1.png

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8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

All the 12z hi-res guidance has a long squall line tomorrow; will be interesting to see whether a meso-low develops nearby as some hi-res and even globals show. The upper jet structure and PVA support it; if so, someone near that low track could see 2-3" but in general I think it's a 1" in <30 min type setup for most.  Those lapse rates in excess of 9C/km may drag some of the 50KT+ winds down from aloft. Also note the cloud tops at or colder than -30C on the HRRR below - that may support some lightning within the line. 

image.thumb.png.b127932653b769fa262b7e4dc8b306f1.png

and it's coming through in the middle of the day- so it should be VERY photogenic!

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

and it's coming through in the middle of the day- so it should be VERY photogenic!

yep, looks relatively cloud-free ahead of and behind it.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Models still going for one of our more impressive snow squalls in a while on Wednesday.

It'll probably be like a SVR thunderstorm where a few areas get a slammed for 10-15 minutes and most miss out.

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

It'll probably be like a SVR thunderstorm where a few areas get a slammed for 10-15 minutes and most miss out.

no, looks more like a solid squall line

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

no, looks more like a solid squall line

Even if that's true it'll still only last maybe 10 minutes if not less. Not enough to drop more than a light dusting. 

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