Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, TwcMan said: The EURO ensembles are intriguing to say the least, for the potential snow event next Tuesday/Wednesday. Anyone have a map with individuals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Anyone have a map with individuals? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Those models tonight also shifted more southeast. We really should watch this storm. We need substantial southward adjustments. So far it mainly looks like a New England threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: We need substantial southward adjustments. So far it mainly looks like a New England threat. Euro just did that It isn't far off from a snowstorm for our area 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Euro just did that It isn't far off from a snowstorm for our area We get a solid half inch. But yes, it was a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Good Saturday morning everyone, Just chiming in, not having read anything here or ), Weather US, Weather Bell. I don't have the time to keep up with all the very good discussion, so I may have missed some things written by others that are relevant and do not support my assessment-summary below. Based on 00z-06z/26 ensembles and what is probably necessary to accommodate the coming PV plunge into the upper Midwest this Tue-Wed-Thu; I am good with several inches of snow along or just nw of I-95 Tuesday (plowable/snowblower material, esp ne PA need along and nw of I84). Lets keep on eye on Monday close call too (it might yet blend in for a LI grazer???). If NYC can get 2 inches of snow Tuesday, i like the odds of max max temp on the 31st of only 10F, coldest since 1994. If not on NYC snow, I still think climate weighted guidance will be too warm, because of the trending colder "ensembled" 2m temp departure 18z/31 (about 30F below normal). Will NYC touch zero? I guess not, but pretty close. CHI top 10 all time coldest mean temp 30th/31st, possibly top 4 or 5 coldest two day period. If the EPS consistently backs off from this date on, then this is all wrong but I don't think so. Rooting for NYC snow on this one, but nothing locked there. Much greater confidence west of I95. After Feb 2...no offerings yet, but overall I like what I'm seeing, especially since nothing yet blatant in a climatologically favorable period. Fingers crossed on MJO progressing to 7 and 8. Walt 1/26 906A (cleaned up first 3 lines at 954AM) 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The Wednesday event looks like an arctic front with rain turning to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: The Wednesday event looks like an arctic front with rain turning to snow. Obviously if you take the 12Z Op Euro verbatim its rough for the coast but the whole dying band/transfer to the coastal is impossible to predict at this range. Its entirely possible this could be a solid snow event here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Obviously if you take the 12Z Op Euro verbatim its rough for the coast but the whole dying band/transfer to the coastal is impossible to predict at this range. Its entirely possible this could be a solid snow event here Agree it's within the realm of possibility. Strangely, the 18Z NAM's more consolidated southern vort would do it - could only imagine what the DGEX would show after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 its just amazing how the Euro n GFS as of this morning were showing 2 totally different scenarios I mean not even close its like watching 2 separate movies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 NWS Albany in their latest discussion saying a plowable snow is likely for much of their forecast area Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: NWS Albany in their latest discussion saying a plowable snow is likely for much of their forecast area Tuesday evening. Albany is going to see a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 49 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Albany is going to see a few inches. And I’m hearing 1-3 in NYC with a rapid freeze-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: And I’m hearing 1-3 in NYC with a rapid freeze-up. Anything for Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said: Anything for Long Island? Inch or less for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 0Z Euro is a nice improvement, going from <1/2" for the 95 corridor from TTN to NYC at 12Z to 1-2" at 0Z with the 3" line running from about Allentown to Danbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Good Sunday morning everyone, Just my 2cents: Based on 00z-06z/27 ensembles and what is probably necessary to accommodate the coming PV plunge into the upper Midwest this Tue-Wed-Thu; I am still good with several inches of snow just nw of I-95 Tuesday afternoon-night (plowable/ snowblower material, esp ne PA need along and nw of I84). Thereafter, the GFS sfc isn't responding cold enough east of the Appalachians and appears too warm Thursday. My guess is NYC min-max Thu 2 and 13...snow or no snow cover. Fwiw... could see a dusting with the arctic cfp late Wednesday. Will NYC touch zero Thursday morning, I guess not, but 00z/27 EC has ~zero 2m temp 12z/31. CHI top 7 all time coldest mean temp 30th/31st, possibly top 4 or 5 coldest one and two day period. After Feb 4.., This is an especially a climatologically favorable period fort snowfall but the NAEFS is suggesting warm or very warm temps sometime between 4th-11th, not what I'd normally expect. Fingers crossed on MJO progressing to 7 and 8. Walt 1/27 8AM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Sunday morning everyone, Just my 2cents: Based on 00z-06z/27 ensembles and what is probably necessary to accommodate the coming PV plunge into the upper Midwest this Tue-Wed-Thu; I am still good with several inches of snow just nw of I-95 Tuesday afternoon-night (plowable/ snowblower material, esp ne PA need along and nw of I84). Thereafter, the GFS sfc isn't responding cold enough east of the Appalachians and appears too warm Thursday. My guess is NYC min-max Thu 2 and 13...snow or no snow cover. Fwiw... could see a dusting with the arctic cfp late Wednesday. Will NYC touch zero Thursday morning, I guess not, but 00z/27 EC has ~zero 2m temp 12z/31. CHI top 7 all time coldest mean temp 30th/31st, possibly top 4 or 5 coldest one and two day period. After Feb 4.., This is an especially a climatologically favorable period fort snowfall but the NAEFS is suggesting warm or very warm temps sometime between 4th-11th, not what I'd normally expect. Fingers crossed on MJO progressing to 7 and 8. Walt 1/27 8AM. If the4-11 period is warm I think it's a safe bet we can start ordering supplies from the gardening catalog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: If the4-11 period is warm I think it's a safe bet we can start ordering supplies from the gardening catalog. You don't know that. There would still be plenty of winter left. I got a ton of snow last march. I'm not throwing in the towel until we are actually in March and the fat lady is singing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 30 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: You don't know that. There would still be plenty of winter left. I got a ton of snow last march. I'm not throwing in the towel until we are actually in March and the fat lady is singing. I sound like a broken record here, but a lot of us did not do well in March. It was a weird set up. I'm throwing in the towel already, but the snowblowers are still gassed and ready to go. If it were mid March or later, and it was warm, I'd empty them out. Actually, unless it's a doozy, I don't bother with cleaning March storms, sometimes they are almost gone the same day. Nature takes care of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 No doubt the delay is depressing for snow lovers, esp e of I95. If we hav etc was til march, thats Okay, though I like my winter in winter. Don and other MJO experts will comment on any impact trends. From what I can tell this is warmer than normal response is due to being in 6 now.... and may be mitigated if we get ne Canada Greenland blocking by Feb 10. The anticipation is the fun part... but i share concerns. Gardening tools not yet.. Rather than misplace this observation, have tucked it in here. Big flakes of snow in Wantage NJ right now... few and far between but at 37F/ TD 22...its flurrying. 11A/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, wdrag said: No doubt the delay is depressing for snow lovers, esp e of I95. If we hav etc was til march, thats Okay, though I like my winter in winter. Don and other MJO experts will comment on any impact trends. From what I can tell this is warmer than normal response is due to being in 6 now.... and may be mitigated if we get ne Canada Greenland blocking by Feb 10. The anticipation is the fun part... but i share concerns. Gardening tools not yet.. Not yet on the gardening tools; but def looking at my catalogs and scoping out the fishing flea markets, because you can never have too much gear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 There’s likely going to be accumulating snow here. Don’t take the GFS snow maps literally. It thinks that at 66 hours our temp is 36 and despite it snowing for 5 hours nothing will accumulate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I guess everyone has seen the new 12z/27 GEFS, 12z/27 op EC and 12z/27 EPS (thru 156 hrs). EPS/EC is monitoring for NYC coldest day since 1994 on Thursday with lo/hi of about 0 and ~10F; and maybe...just maybe an inch of snow late Tuesday (EPS prob 20% for more than 1" which is small, while extreme nw Nj and ne PA EPS has 70% chc of more than 3"-Sussex County on the gradient where 70% tends to be less confident). However, out here in nw NJ/ne PA some of the operational guidance is becoming more widespread on 6+ (snow ratio's?) for Pike and Sussex Counties on northeastward into w 1/4 MA. (EPS is less ~4"). Also, am pretty confident of 1 or 2 days (30/31) Chicago top 2 coldest days on record. This is a pretty big event or pair of events, that will exert quite a bit of hardship... infrastructure and 1 or 2 days of cancellations I think here in nw NJ and ne PA, at the least. Also, noticing GEFS has quite a blocking signal beyond 10 days (ne Canada-Greenland) that if occurs, would shunt the initial large warming of the 4th-7th, southward, setting up a battle zone-storm track nearby in Feb (hopefully more favorable than the past two months). No matter, it looks active and interesting but then again, i know its been mostly a dud in Dec-Jan so far for NYC eastward and my enthusiasm is predicated on modeled blocking actually occurring implying, a more snowy-colder favorable -NAO. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: I guess everyone has seen the new 12z/27 GEFS, 12z/27 op EC and 12z/27 EPS (thru 156 hrs). EPS/EC is monitoring for NYC coldest day since 1994 on Thursday with lo/hi of about 0 and ~10F; and maybe...just maybe an inch of snow late Tuesday (EPS prob 20% for more than 1" which is small, while extreme nw Nj and ne PA EPS has 70% chc of more than 3"-Sussex County on the gradient where 70% tends to be less confident). However, out here in nw NJ/ne PA some of the operational guidance is becoming more widespread on 6+ (snow ratio's?) for Pike and Sussex Counties on northeastward into w 1/4 MA. (EPS is less ~4"). Also, am pretty confident of 1 or 2 days (30/31) Chicago top 2 coldest days on record. This is a pretty big event or pair of events, that will exert quite a bit of hardship... infrastructure and 1 or 2 days of cancellations I think here in nw NJ and ne PA, at the least. Also, noticing GEFS has quite a blocking signal beyond 10 days (ne Canada-Greenland) that if occurs, would shunt the initial large warming of the 4th-7th, southward, setting up a battle zone-storm track nearby in Feb (hopefully more favorable than the past two months). No matter, it looks active and interesting but then again, i know its been mostly a dud in Dec-Jan so far for NYC eastward and my enthusiasm is predicated on modeled blocking actually occurring implying, a more snowy-colder favorable -NAO. Awesome post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 All the models have some snow for the NYC area on Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: All the models have some snow for the NYC area on Tuesday. 88 you know I am out on that ledge with you but me personally = at this point I look at the models but I just don't trust any of them, not even this close to the event as they have just been so all over the place and inconsistent 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 you know I am out on that ledge with you but me personally = at this point I look at the models but I just don't trust any of them, not even this close to the event as they have just been so all over the place and inconsistent I trust the EURO and in this range, the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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