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January 30, 2019 Snow Squall Observations Thread


bluewave
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Lets be honest, most snow threats are thread the needle for the coast and immediate NYC metro area.  That's what makes this last two decade run pretty much a once in a lifetime stretch outside of a few years with everything coming together perfectly at the right time on so many occasions.  We're due a bad luck winter or three, law of averages.  Not saying this winter will finish as a ratter but we've been really spoiled the last 15 or so years and should put it all in perspective.
In all honesty though, Weather tends to be cyclical. The mid 70s was pretty good for nyc in terms of snow, the early 80s not so much. Then we switched to a bit more snow and then the late 90s and early 2000s were horrific and then we switched again.

That being said, my crow is delicious. Yes, I'm still eating it from the weekend. I have leftovers for days.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

I’m going to interpret this as you have your doubts about a snowy February based off of this

After what we’ve been experiencing since late November till now, I’m doubting any sustained change to a cold and snow pattern. And if the ensembles are right about a +EPO forming by the 2nd week of February, that month will be in serious trouble too IMO

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1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said:

Lets be honest, most snow threats are thread the needle for the coast and immediate NYC metro area.  That's what makes this last two decade run pretty much a once in a lifetime stretch outside of a few years with everything coming together perfectly at the right time on so many occasions.  We're due a bad luck winter or three, law of averages.  Not saying this winter will finish as a ratter but we've been really spoiled the last 15 or so years and should put it all in perspective.

Very well said.   

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Ao looks to go negative and the pna ridge looks to be very good.

Weeklies show a negative nao and ao pattern.

I think people are worrying for no reason

What good is a -NAO & -AO going to do if the EPO is positive? +EPO overwhelms them. And everytime a +PNA has shown up since November, it’s been transient and gets blasted right apart by raging Pacific flow

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Majority of forecasters had a good pattern starting 2nd half of January.

I’m not doubting you or the forecasters(who are excellent btw)it just seems as though this year is not our year for snow.  I know it’s not scientific and I know I’m biased, it just seems that way to me though

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Majority of forecasters had a good pattern starting 2nd half of January.

It's been a much better pattern, delivering two significant snowfalls.  Unfortunately, one hit Philly to AC and points S of there and the other hit areas N of I-80 for the most part.  Doesn't mean the pattern hasn't been way better than from mid-Dec to mid-Jan - it's just that we got a bit unlucky with the outcomes.  It happens.  Will the pattern get even better with blocking developing?  Many think so and then we'll have even better chances than we normally do.  But no guarantees, since pattern predictions are inherently probabilistic, not deterministic, meaning outcomes will also be probabilistic and might not result in the outcomes one might desire.  Like mounds of snow.  

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2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

It's been a much better pattern, delivering two significant snowfalls.  Unfortunately, one hit Philly to AC and points S of there and the other hit areas N of I-80 for the most part.  Doesn't mean the pattern hasn't been way better than from mid-Dec to mid-Jan - it's just that we got a bit unlucky with the outcomes.  It happens.  Will the pattern get even better with blocking developing?  Many think so and then we'll have even better chances than we normally do.  But no guarantees, since pattern predictions are inherently probabilistic, not deterministic, meaning outcomes will also be probabilistic and might not result in the outcomes one might desire.  Like mounds of snow.  

Exactly.  The pattern has been fine, but NYC has been unlucky.  Dems the breaks.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive 6 SD LLJ event on the NAM. Maybe someone can start a separate thread.

http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/NAM/

00Z NAM upped the ante further with its 100KT 925mb jet over LI/CT. It looks like the upper low over TX/NM has split into two, which helps a secondary low form along the front tomorrow night into early Thursday. PWAT's approaching January records for OKX/CHH on its 00Z runs as well.

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