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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035
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Being a former buffalonian I follow their weather discussions. Here is what they are seeing per their 258 PM discussion which seems to be spelling out our issues in the lsv especially Lancaster and surrounding counties. We needed phasing later not earlier.

As mentioned...the center of the cyclone was found over the Lower
Mississippi Valley at 15z. The system will track to the northeast
across Kentucky and West Virginia to about the Mason Dixon Line...
which is about 25 to 50 miles further north than most guidance
packages were suggesting. This subtle shift is being verified by
pressure falls over Ohio and West Virginia. If this trend
continues...it should lead to slightly stronger winds and possibly
more snow. The reason for the shift is an earlier phasing of the two
branches of the jet. This is starting to become apparent in WV
imagery.
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Just now, Voyager said:

The onset of precipitation has been spotty at best and the radar looks pathetic at the moment. And to think, a lot of us (myself included) were expecting this to come in like a wall of white. Quite an amazing turn around from the past few days.

GFS and then HRRR ftw. 

BUT!!! This means anyone who posts ICON maps should get permabanned! 

So really it’s a win.

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