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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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How do you produce the inverse username that I see occasionally placed inside posts?  If you create a post that includes that name reference does that person receive a notification?

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Most of the hour and a half I was outside snow blowing it was a light to moderate snow falling. The heavier precip has moved back in and it is now dumping sleet. The running total on the "sleetfall" is now up to 1.5". This has essentially been an all frozen event here, long after it was supposed to be.  

Mag they was showing your area could get 1-3" 

1.5" of snow here with .5" of sleet and freezing rain for my total.

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8 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

I see there is hits for Sunday and Tuesday night can anyone tell what day is the hit on storm 3. Not because I don't believe it I just cant find it. 

The GFS has been going back and forth between cutter and under us but the following Sunday is the third one, more rain than snow right now, on the latest run.

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28 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

I see there is hits for Sunday and Tuesday night can anyone tell what day is the hit on storm 3. Not because I don't believe it I just cant find it. 

 

29 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

I see there is hits for Sunday and Tuesday night can anyone tell what day is the hit on storm 3. Not because I don't believe it I just cant find it. 

18z has at hr 96 sat pm slider just under - would be snow if any

hr 120 sunday pm light snow, flush hit

hr 180 Wednesday more juiced up system that is snow to ice

hr 300 cutter w/ ice to rain.

 

this is all verbatim, not a forecast so plenty of time to get better or worse.  I'd not even look at last 2 right now, and focus on first 2. 

To your point, it is an active period.

 

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Is it more rain than snow showing for all three runs are are you speaking of more rain than snow for the following sunday

25 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

The GFS has been going back and forth between cutter and under us but the following Sunday is the third one, more rain than snow right now, on the latest run.

 

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27 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

The GFS has been going back and forth between cutter and under us but the following Sunday is the third one, more rain than snow right now, on the latest run.

I think next week we have a good window, but think we all should enjoy it, and see what happens from there. 

Need the MJO to stall in 8 or 1.  If we lose it.....well....I may just lose it :lol:

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

 

18z has at hr 96 sat pm slider just under - would be snow if any

hr 120 sunday pm light snow, flush hit

hr 180 Wednesday more juiced up system that is snow to ice

hr 300 cutter w/ ice to rain.

 

this is all verbatim, not a forecast so plenty of time to get better or worse.  I'd not even look at last 2 right now, and focus on first 2. 

To your point, it is an active period.

 

Ok got it thanks nut

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24 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

Is it more rain than snow showing for all three runs are are you speaking of more rain than snow for the following sunday

 

Nut already broke it down but the one I was referring too, #3 of the ones that hit (first one is south and I did not count) is indeed mostly rain on the 18Z GFS.

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I was gifted with a pretty decent internal barometer gifted to me from the big kahuna on Feb 18 1979 . Its not perfect but it holds up better than computers inside 48 most and the time. My internal barometer bottoms out at headache and foot pain preceding the big ones followed by an intense  hyperactivity  and many other small ques i am not going to talk about today I get proceeding storms and pattern changes . Laugh all you want fellows there is research out there supporting people born during extreme LP's may develop hypersensitivity's to weather changes. I sure did . It dosent tell me if I am in the Bulls eye but it dose alert to changes and and storms in formation or approaching the Mid Atlantic. For those who never have noticed you can Smell a warm Sector and the approach of a cold front its Ionic on you receptors. Leaves on trees turn over from strong lift in the summer. Many Species of mycorrhiza and there mushrooms I hunt for react  proceeding and fallowing the weather in very interesting ways. In fact I see a future for organic based bio computers channeling the secret mycorrhiza hold in forecasting the weather. At that point we will be truly moveing foward with forecasting but computers by them self along with a society that is complete loosing there connection with nature is not working well.   

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I’m now basically at 25” for the season. A month and a half to get a foot - seems reasonable given the upcoming pattern.

Once you correct your measurement from the 2/1/19 event and record 1.8" you will indeed have precisely 25.0" for the season which just so happens to precisely match my season-to-date as well.

(Just a friendly reminder that snow measurements are only made to the nearest tenth of an inch.  Quarters of an inch are a no-no.)  B)

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Amazing...my temperature continues to slowly fall.  I'm now down to 31.3 degrees with steady freezing rain falling.  The earlier melting has totally stopped for the time being and we are now re-accreting.

Edit>> 31.1 F @ 9:14pm  Freezing rain is pulling the colder air back down I would presume.

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5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Amazing...my temperature continues to slowly fall.  I'm now down to 31.3 degrees with steady freezing rain falling.  The earlier melting has totally stopped for the time being and we are now re-accreting.

Edit>> 31.1 F @ 9:14pm

Yep, everything here in the village has ice build up. I was just out with the dog. Clothes line is drooping, trees are ice crusted. Walks and driveways are all ice

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I've gone from 28 to 30 over the past few hours, but with heavy drizzle, ice is really starting to accrete here. I'm going to have an interesting drive to Mt Airy Casino in Mt Pocono tomorrow morning if we don't get above freezing.

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Just now, sauss06 said:

Yep, everything here in the village has ice build up. I was just out with the dog. Clothes line is drooping, trees are ice crusted. Walks and driveways are all ice

So this storm DID have a trick up its sleeve after all.  Who would have thought we'd go back to freezing rain as the storm was winding down??  This is like the surprise MAG had with so much more sleet and no freezing rain in his area.  That also was not supposed to happen.  

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

So this storm DID have a trick up its sleeve after all.  Who would have thought we'd go back to freezing rain as the storm was winding down??  This is like the surprise MAG had with so much more sleet and no freezing rain in his area.  That also was not supposed to happen.  

Yep, would have never thought this

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I've gone from 28 to 30 over the past few hours, but with heavy drizzle, ice is really starting to accrete here. I'm going to have an interesting drive to Mt Airy Casino in Mt Pocono tomorrow morning if we don't get above freezing.

NWS thinking is that when the cold front pushes through overnight (before 3AM) warmer air aloft will mix down and there will be a spike in temperatures sending them notably back above freezing.  They might remain above long enough for the accretion to melt off.

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18 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

So this storm DID have a trick up its sleeve after all.  Who would have thought we'd go back to freezing rain as the storm was winding down??  This is like the surprise MAG had with so much more sleet and no freezing rain in his area.  That also was not supposed to happen.  

We know that CAD deals often "overpreform" and this one fits that description for sure.  We were to hit 37 today and maxed out at 34.  Ice is getting crunchy here as well and trees never lost ice from today, even though we did get above for a while.  Still close enough to keep it.  Guess thats a + for living east of the Apps.

 

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2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I think next week we have a good window, but think we all should enjoy it, and see what happens from there. 

Need the MJO to stall in 8 or 1.  If we lose it.....well....I may just lose it :lol:

Yes, we need to first figure out the possible 2 events this weekend. There is the chance of back to back events this weekend for many of us. 

The MJO is heading to the phase 8 & 1.

The SOI is crashing. Today it hit -23 Yesterday it was -19.

This coming week should be fun, & the rest of the month into early March could be a great period of winter weather !

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