pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Both northern and southern Lycoming as well as Sullivan is lumped in with the NY border counties on that advisory, so I would imagine IPT itself is looking at the high end of that. And your on the 3 inch line on their map. I think you have a chance for getting into a 3-5 type snow. Problem up your way sure isn't temps, it's QPF. Best forcing and support for potentially intense rates to get the warning snows look to reside in the southern half of PA. Early look at almost the full event on the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for all of our members in here, as well as the Pittsburgh and SW PA gang too as that model gives them the same several hour period of solid snows as us. I didn't see anywhere in the new short term disco that mentioned CTP riding the GFS, I did see this though. I like that blurb from ctp about snowfall being able to survive the warm nose and possible delay in changeover. Hearing them say that means there is a possibility that i need to shoot a crow for supper tomorrow night. Seeing the 18z pretty much hold serve is a good thing. I think i even have a whack at 5-6 now. I'd be glad to eat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Pre-storm icepack conditions: I hope my yard looks like that AFTER tomorrow. Lucky bugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: That CTP discussion was very nice ! thats about as bullish as they get. Major confidence booster for a good paste job for many. Im in......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: That radar down south does look sweet! Nashville just got .24 inches of rain in the last hour...let’s get those types of qpf rates up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 FV3 depth map...posting so it can be recorded re: how well it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Start times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 State is closed tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Watch that friggin dry tongue verify in Lanco tomorrow. Several models have it. What da Frick!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Watch that friggin dry tongue verify in Lanco tomorrow. Several models have it. What da Frick!!! I'm in Eastern LanCo... That has me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Down to 32 with a DP of 8 right now. Hope to make it to under 25 by arrival of precip and get a few degrees under that as it starts. Cushion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Down to 32 with a DP of 8 right now. Hope to make it to under 25 by arrival of precip and get a few degrees under that as it starts. Cushion! That shouldn’t be a prob. I’m 29/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: That shouldn’t be a prob. I’m 29/9 I would not think so but more than once I have seens temps surprise me a bit high here this winter. Already dropped to 30 since my post. 2 degrees in 10-15 min...was probably teetering on 31 before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: I'm in Eastern LanCo... That has me nervous. I’m not sure how that evolution would happen. I think a smoother distribution in our area would make more sense but it sure makes one wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I’m not sure how that evolution would happen. I think a smoother distribution in our area would make more sense but it sure makes one wonder. High pressure might be introducing dry air to eastern areas due to its location tomorrow . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 81 has caved already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I’m not sure how that evolution would happen. I think a smoother distribution in our area would make more sense but it sure makes one wonder. Lots of cold dry air. When you see those on the models, it usually means something. With that look, I’d much rather be on west side of town. EDIT:Although it appears to be not as bad as we move closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 What’s going on guys. Do you think I’ll run into very many issues leaving Fishkill NY tomorrow around 4 heading to Scranton? I’m from out of state so I’m not overly familiar with the highways during storms in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Think the next couple of weeks will offer a couple of opportunities for the elusive " big one." My bar is set for 3" tomorrow. Lower than a lot of guidance but experience says to expect lower amounts and hope for bigger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 51 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: 81 has caved already When we say cave here we mean covered with snow. We aren’t talking about potholes the size of caves. Take that to the PennDOTfu.com forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 35 minutes ago, RI Rob said: What’s going on guys. Do you think I’ll run into very many issues leaving Fishkill NY tomorrow around 4 heading to Scranton? I’m from out of state so I’m not overly familiar with the highways during storms in PA. Good luck. I’d not do that drive tomorrow esp late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, canderson said: Good luck. I’d not do that drive tomorrow esp late afternoon. Agh I was hoping you wouldn’t say that. Maybe it makes more sense for me to stay another night in Fishkill and head for Scranton early Thursday’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Euro looks great. I’m sure Blizz will be here soon with maps but it’s wetter than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: High pressure might be introducing dry air to eastern areas due to its location tomorrow . Pro I'll just focus on this map and call it a good storm, even if 1/2 to3/4 of this verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Think the next couple of weeks will offer a couple of opportunities for the elusive " big one." My bar is set for 3" tomorrow. Lower than a lot of guidance but experience says to expect lower amounts and hope for bigger. Welcome back ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 34 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Think the next couple of weeks will offer a couple of opportunities for the elusive " big one." My bar is set for 3" tomorrow. Lower than a lot of guidance but experience says to expect lower amounts and hope for bigger. well looky whos back. glad to see you. I think 3-6 is very possible for us. Hi res all coming into agreement and go look at CTP's afternoon update, they are as bullish as they get about a possible thumping for some. We wont be the winners, but we'll be in the game here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 1 hour ago, RI Rob said: What’s going on guys. Do you think I’ll run into very many issues leaving Fishkill NY tomorrow around 4 heading to Scranton? I’m from out of state so I’m not overly familiar with the highways during storms in PA. I am not that familar with route 84 but it will be snow covered with well below freezing temps in the mid to upper 20's so that drive will be a bit dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, RI Rob said: Agh I was hoping you wouldn’t say that. Maybe it makes more sense for me to stay another night in Fishkill and head for Scranton early Thursday’s I'm not one to tell folks what to do, as we all have different takes on it. I love driving in snow...yeah I scare me once in a while, but I play it pretty safe. Easiest call is if you have the time to wait,and are uncomfortable driving in it, say another night. If you enjoy it....then enjoy it. Nice thing is we now all have gps's to reroute if needed. NBD. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Snow on the ground at at 11AM from the latest HRRR. Animation of the radar shows the heaviest returns staying about 1/4 of the way up the state thorugh this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Not staying up for all the models tonight but HAVE to see what the Nam says. It has to give up the ghost and pull the maxes south or it is going to pull off a coup and IF it does give up will south PA be Nam'ed and make forecasters worry that 8" forecasts will bust low when a combo of longer CAD, better ratios and longer period of snow ups the ante. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2019 Share Posted February 20, 2019 Thank you guys, I appreciate it very much. Let's end this winter with a bang... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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