Wmsptwx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 According to nws they are riding the GFS model it appears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: Thats BS, I am fringed. LOL I will be in the south western side at 3-5 for that event while voyager in Wspt are digging out once again. This wouldn’t be the first year events have danced around Lanco. I’m rather used to it but will take whatever we can get. I know my climo well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 34 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: 1 to 3 and under .1 of ice the call for up here. Both northern and southern Lycoming as well as Sullivan is lumped in with the NY border counties on that advisory, so I would imagine IPT itself is looking at the high end of that. And your on the 3 inch line on their map. I think you have a chance for getting into a 3-5 type snow. Problem up your way sure isn't temps, it's QPF. Best forcing and support for potentially intense rates to get the warning snows look to reside in the southern half of PA. Early look at almost the full event on the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for all of our members in here, as well as the Pittsburgh and SW PA gang too as that model gives them the same several hour period of solid snows as us. 19 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: According to nws they are riding the GFS model it appears. I didn't see anywhere in the new short term disco that mentioned CTP riding the GFS, I did see this though. Quote Across the southern half of Pennsylvania, any light snow within an hour of the onset (between 11Z-14Z Wed) should transition to a 3-5 hour period of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, thanks to strong upper divergence and low-mid level FGEN. This area of high prob GRTN 1 inch per hour lingers the longest across the South-Central Mtns and Lower Susq Valley, before shifting east of our SE CWA during the mid to late afternoon hours. Somewhat similar to the Nov 15th, 2018 Winter Storm, this upcoming one features hefty amounts of moisture, and Max Wet bulb temps only creeping a deg or 2 C above zero in an approx 2 kft thick layer (up around 7-9 kft AGL) for the early and mid afternoon. Strong UVVEL may cool this slightly above freezing layer (or it may be only deep enough to make the snowflakes sticky) and delay the changeover to sleet during peak intensity. This creates a potential error in snow amounts of 2-3 inches on the low side should the changeover not occur until late afternoon across Central PA and the Susq Valley. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18z NAM is a crushed job until 1pm. Dang 700's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I will be in the south western side at 3-5 for that event while voyager in Wspt are digging out once again. This wouldn’t be the first year events have danced around Lanco. I’m rather used to it but will take whatever we can get. I know my climo well. I won't be digging. I'll be in Phoenix watching from afar...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Both northern and southern Lycoming as well as Sullivan is lumped in with the NY border counties on that advisory, so I would imagine IPT itself is looking at the high end of that. And your on the 3 inch line on their map. I think you have a chance for getting into a 3-5 type snow. Problem up your way sure isn't temps, it's QPF. Best forcing and support for potentially intense rates to get the warning snows look to reside in the southern half of PA. Early look at almost the full event on the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for all of our members in here, as well as the Pittsburgh and SW PA gang too as that model gives them the same several hour period of solid snows as us. I didn't see anywhere in the new short term disco that mentioned CTP riding the GFS, I did see this though. CTP's discussion was my basis for saying someone could get a foot....any one up to 7-8" that has an extra hour or two whether due to rates, models under doing Cad or because the US Airforce sprinkles snow down from the clouds (it all counts excpet the fake snow in Buffalo) has a shot at a special event tomorrow. You mentioned the HRRR. I just counted 10-11 panels of snow, of varying rates, for most. If it still shows that 6 hours from now then it can probably be takens seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, paweather said: 18z NAM is a crushed job until 1pm. Dang 700's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I meant GFS was only model giving us an inch or two of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Look at radar, that moisture tho. Someone is going to get nailed. My guess - as always - is Cashtown jackpots. He is like a snow magnet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Also if you're curious about the jet stream above Pennsylvania, a Virgin Atlantic flight flying from LA to London hit 801 mph ground speed over the Commonwealth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Also if you're curious about the jet stream above Pennsylvania, a Virgin Atlantic flight flying from LA to London hit 801 mph ground speed over the Commonwealth. Wow, that is really booking it! maybe a dumb question...does that create a sonic boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, canderson said: Look at radar, that moisture tho. Someone is going to get nailed. My guess - as always - is Cashtown jackpots. He is like a snow magnet. They actually sell these at the Cashtown Dollar Store. They cost $2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Wow, that is really booking it! maybe a dumb question...does that create a sonic boom. Good question.Maybe not at that altitude?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: CTP's discussion was my basis for saying someone could get a foot....any one up to 7-8" that has an extra hour or two whether due to rates, models under doing Cad or because the US Airforce sprinkles snow down from the clouds (it all counts excpet the fake snow in Buffalo) has a shot at a special event tomorrow. You mentioned the HRRR. I just counted 10-11 panels of snow, of varying rates, for most. If it still shows that 6 hours from now then it can probably be takens seriously. Yea that November storm started with a 4-7" warning here and I ended up with 10.5" and a 1 hour snowfall of 2.7" at one point. Given the moisture source, this is the type of storm that can do it. I dunno about a foot but could have a couple locales at 8-10" if rates hold up that changeover some. I thought the HRRR did fairly well for last weeks storm, even at this range. Only nitpick I had personally was I went to sleet a couple hours earlier.... and then stayed snow/sleet later haha. Overall I thought it handled that one pretty good over our region as a whole. GFS had me over to freezing rain/rain by 4am on that one and I didn't see any liquid until about 14 hours after that and it rushed the warmth through C-PA too fast. That's why I'm riding colder models with this similar setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, canderson said: Also if you're curious about the jet stream above Pennsylvania, a Virgin Atlantic flight flying from LA to London hit 801 mph ground speed over the Commonwealth. Some early thundersnow at 35k feet? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Some early thundersnow at 35k feet? Haha Ha, someone is going to interpret that as "A met in the PA forum is calling for Thundersnow tomorrow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, canderson said: Also if you're curious about the jet stream above Pennsylvania, a Virgin Atlantic flight flying from LA to London hit 801 mph ground speed over the Commonwealth. Looks like it was registered over an area from Clearfield to Tyrone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Wow, that is really booking it! maybe a dumb question...does that create a sonic boom. No, it was ground speed and not nautical speed so there is a mathematical difference (don't ask me to explain, I can't lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, canderson said: Also if you're curious about the jet stream above Pennsylvania, a Virgin Atlantic flight flying from LA to London hit 801 mph ground speed over the Commonwealth. yep sent the link earlier in this thread CRAZY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, paweather said: yep sent the link earlier in this thread CRAZY! I somehow missed that - I guess snow excitement got to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, canderson said: I somehow missed that - I guess snow excitement got to me. LOL. all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 25 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: They actually sell these at the Cashtown Dollar Store. They cost $2. Too funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Ha, someone is going to interpret that as "A met in the PA forum is calling for Thundersnow tomorrow". Yea should probably have a sarcastic disclaimer on that one haha. 5 minutes ago, canderson said: No, it was ground speed and not nautical speed so there is a mathematical difference (don't ask me to explain, I can't lol). It's the difference between ground speed and air speed. The plane was traveling at it's usual cruising speed (air speed) as compared to the air around it (200mph tailwind). That's pretty insane, I guess that can be an example of the strength of the upper level jet we have with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Juicy radar. Would not be a surprise for some 0Z's (how do you say MAN backwards?) to over do it a bit tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 Pre-storm icepack conditions: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: 1 to 3 and under .1 of ice the call for up here. I'm thinking 2-4" with 0.10" ice. I think that was a good call Bubbler !! Mag that's some nice snow pack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: I will be in the south western side at 3-5 for that event while voyager in Wspt are digging out once again. This wouldn’t be the first year events have danced around Lanco. I’m rather used to it but will take whatever we can get. I know my climo well. Don’t worry, you will jackpot with a coastal in the next couple of weeks while others cry about getting fringed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Both northern and southern Lycoming as well as Sullivan is lumped in with the NY border counties on that advisory, so I would imagine IPT itself is looking at the high end of that. And your on the 3 inch line on their map. I think you have a chance for getting into a 3-5 type snow. Problem up your way sure isn't temps, it's QPF. Best forcing and support for potentially intense rates to get the warning snows look to reside in the southern half of PA. Early look at almost the full event on the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for all of our members in here, as well as the Pittsburgh and SW PA gang too as that model gives them the same several hour period of solid snows as us. I didn't see anywhere in the new short term disco that mentioned CTP riding the GFS, I did see this though. That CTP discussion was very nice ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: Look at radar, that moisture tho. Someone is going to get nailed. My guess - as always - is Cashtown jackpots. He is like a snow magnet. That radar down south does look sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Here is the 12z EPS. I know it’s late for ensembles, but I like how it jackpots the western end of my home county ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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