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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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I'm thinking this storm is going to be similar to the storm on the 12-13. or maybe something in between.

Started out as the map on the top and ended up being the one on the bottom.

Still the Pacific stream is dictating our pattern.

Sooner later we have to get a decent storm. :snowing:

 

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This storm on Tuesday/Wednesday could be special.  The Gulf is open for business, a high is sticking its nose down the coast there are hints of coastal development which could actually lock this in as a full frozen event if it transferred soon enough.

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So, winter is still going on ...I’m shocked....

Good agreement today with the GFS & Euro, as well as their ensembles for our Wednesday storm. The CAD improved & so did the path of the low. As @bubbler86 said, if the low transfers to the coast, we could really be in business. As it stands now, I would sign up for the 12z Euro !

We also still have the chance at an inch or two of snow Sunday night into Monday.

Lots of tracking ahead of us this weekend!

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It was a nice day out, cracking into the 50s. Said warmth didn't do much to the glacier in the yard though (still 100% coverage). I was gone most of the day and just got home and went out in the yard to take some measurements. I immediately slipped and fell on top of the snow since it's cooled back off and everything's refreezing. I had a 6" snow depth after the storm Tuesday and I managed some measurements on the north and south side of the house that were all in the 4.5-5" range. That's crazy with how warm it got today (and temps in the 40s yesterday). I guess that's what over 30% of the snowpack being sleet will get you. I'm ready to add to it. :snowing:

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A little step back in the 0Z and 6Z models as to total snow accumulation for Tue night/Wed.  Storm looks very similar to last weeks storm as depicted at the moment (and predicted by @djr5001 and @pawatch).  I still think their is potential for a coastal tough to develop earlier this time due to the HP being a bit stronger.  A lot of this will depend on the timing as if the high skedaddles before the low gets up into the Eastern Ohio Valley then we are indeed back to last weeks storm with a full cutter.

 

Either way it looks wet with the gulf being open so a lot of something is going to fall...mostly frozen in PA one would expect.  Verbatim the morning models give  the Eastern 2/3 of PA a 3-6" snow fall, down from 8-12" yesterday, then ice.  The Euro Kuchera shows 4-8". 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

A little step back in the 0Z and 6Z models as to total snow accumulation for Tue night/Wed.  Storm looks very similar to last weeks storm as depicted at the moment (and predicted by @djr5001 and @pawatch).  I still think their is potential for a coastal tough to develop earlier this time due to the HP being a bit stronger.  A lot of this will depend on the timing as if the high skedaddles before the low gets up into the Eastern Ohio Valley then we are indeed back to last weeks storm with a full cutter.

 

Either way it looks wet with the gulf being open so a lot of something is going to fall...mostly frozen in PA one would expect.  Verbatim the morning models give  the Eastern 2/3 of PA a 3-6" snow fall, down from 8-12" yesterday, then ice.  The Euro Kuchera shows 4-8". 

 

 

There will be normal ups and downs at this range.   Keep us updated 

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I have to go out to State College tomorrow to pick up local students who attended Thon at PSU and bring them back to Hazleton. Have to be at the Bryce Jordan Center for 3:45pm, so I'm "hoping" the onset of snow is somewhat delayed and I can get in and out and headed back east before the flakes fly...

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9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I have to go out to State College tomorrow to pick up local students who attended Thon at PSU and bring them back to Hazleton. Have to be at the Bryce Jordan Center for 3:45pm, so I'm "hoping" the onset of snow is somewhat delayed and I can get in and out and headed back east before the flakes fly...

We are travelling a bit tomorrow as well but not sure the roads will be a big issue (even up there) since this is happening during the day .  Would have to snow hard to accumulate in the 30's.  Hopefully it works out for you (and me!).

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

There will be normal ups and downs at this range.   Keep us updated 

You are probably golden either way...did I read that you were the jackpot for the previous one?  LOL.  Leading into it we looked like 1-2 and quick turnover.

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

You are probably golden either way...did I read that you were the jackpot for the previous one?  LOL.  Leading into it we looked like 1-2 and quick turnover.

I did ok here, over 6”.  It turned into 1 Long event instead of the round 1/2 idea.   Will you be around for this one?

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

I did ok here, over 6”.  It turned into 1 Long event instead of the round 1/2 idea.   Will you be around for this one?

Wow.  I guess with both events combined 6" was not too much over progs.  I had thought 1-2 then 2-4 (storm 2)  for us but was thinking we would really be the 1 and 2 and only get 3-4" total down here.  

I am around until mid March if all goes as planned now. 

 

 

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I don't see how that map can come to fruition for any snow accumulations in the LSV.  My point n click never gives pure snow and/or sleet from start to finish.  Their thinking right now is that there is only a 20% chance of precip arriving in our area before 4pm anyway.  The pivotal maps show no snow accumulations south of I-80 from both 12K and 3K, so even mid SV is no snow.

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8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I don't see how that map can come to fruition for any snow accumulations in the LSV.  My point n click never gives pure snow and/or sleet from start to finish.  Their thinking right now is that there is only a 20% chance of precip arriving in our area before 4pm anyway.  The pivotal maps show no snow accumulations south of I-80 from both 12K and 3K, so even mid SV is no snow.

GFS is just plain rain for the LSV much of the time...this ice map is a better presentation of the threat for tomorrow.  Mostly a windshield wiper event east of the mountains.

image.thumb.png.a98c0b9d2e6d821f595424fcb71bda9e.png

 

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12Z GFS is a very ridge dependent 1-4" snow (depending on snow map) followed by moderate ice then a bit of rain for much of the LSV  for next week.  Not a great run...much less qpf into the cold part of the storm than before. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Bright side: the rain will help maintain the mud.

I do not think we need to worry about that with all the rain the GFS shows next weekend (consistently for several runs in a row).  

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And the roller coaster continues.  Yeah, Wednesday is rapidly falling apart on the GFS with only 1" at MDT.  FV3 a little better with 4" at MDT.  Of course there is still time for it to reverse course again but certainly not looking promising at the moment.  What a difference 24 hours makes.

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