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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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morning all looks like I was right when i posted last night about the dry slot ****ing us lol. every time a storm liek this dry slots us by the time the precip starts again its ice but looks like we skipped sleet and wet to frz rain. the ice started way earlier to. originally my snow was forecasted to stick around till 12-1

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Well, just got up (early, haha, not a morning person except for snowstorms) to take an observation.  Definitely disappointed to see freezing rain falling with a temp of 30.2.  I actually dropped to 29.0 during the night which must have been during a heavier period of snow.  Measured 2.5" on the board including a light iced coating from the zr.  Add that to my 1.7" from round 1 and my total snowfall from both rounds was 4.2".  With the changeover to freezing rain already here it's time to see how long we hold on to temps below 32.0.  For now I'm going back to bed.  See you in a couple of hours.

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I have been out all night posting pics  It may have not snowed a ton but it snowed well after the first so called dry slot I saw no rain or sleet in the harrisburg area untill around 7:00am on radar or with my eyes.   No offence my man  

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

morning all looks like I was right when i posted last night about the dry slot ****ing us lol. every time a storm liek this dry slots us by the time the precip starts again its ice but looks like we skipped sleet and wet to frz rain. the ice started way earlier to. originally my snow was forecasted to stick around till 12-1

 

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yeah only reason we didnt stay snow longer was damn dry slot. im not even turning on my local news to hear this met pump himself up saying I told you so about low snow numbers. He didnt even forecast for the dry slot. this one was different tho instead of the south west dry slot getting me that filled in at the same time to eastern side of precip for what ever reason decided to just dry up and say nah im out,

 

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1 minute ago, Flatheadsickness said:

I have been out all night posting pics  It may have not snowed a ton but it snowed well after the first so called dry slot I saw no rain or sleet in the harrisburg area untill around 7:00am on radar or with my eyes.   No offence my man  

 

I was talking about radar. looks like on radar the ice moved in at 5 or so. if you go back and look at the radar our eastern side was dry slotted. In this radar the first few frames you see how bad the eastern half looked. I dunno where I can find a radar link going back longer tho.

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast-region/weather-radar?play=1

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20 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Measured about 4.4” depth but the rain is already starting to impact that.  This snow did stick to trees/etc well so hoping the rain knocks it off rather than making it heavier on the limbs.  Models didn’t do a terrible job at all - just held onto the colder air longer to have longer period of sleet than what is occurring.  

I was surprised it was raining at 530. i thought we'd stay snow at least until daylight, well, i was hoping anyways. 

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30 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I was surprised it was raining at 530. i thought we'd stay snow at least until daylight, well, i was hoping anyways. 

You guys gotta remember that lighter rates often do that w/ marginal temps.  Dynamic cooling during better rates turn things back over to frozen.

Had ZR on the way into work, but once rates started to increase, it flipped back to sleet. 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

You guys gotta remember that lighter rates often do that w/ marginal temps.  Dynamic cooling during better rates turn things back over to frozen.

Had ZR on the way into work, but once rates started to increase, it flipped back to sleet. 

i just had to re-salt sidewalks from the frzn and sleet

 

edit- after the past couple days, my year to date total is 25.7

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1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

i just had to re-salt sidewalks from the frzn and sleet

dont slip n fall on ur tushy....

:P

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16 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Weekend system getting more interesting.


.

Hard to trust those post front/extra wave snows but it worked out pretty well a week or two ago (if you mean early weekend).  The whole GFS run is snow after snow :-).

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1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

Hard to trust those post front/extra wave snows but it worked out pretty well a week or two ago.

and when you look at the Fv3 and see 3" to fall in your backyard today and its already ZR/sleet, it makes you wonder what to expect. 

i'll follow it for the storm path and temp profiles, and not look at the hideous snow maps (although at a glance it was porntastic).

 

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So I injoyed the storm. It did come up short but I am calling total B/S on more than one persons very local reports from last night and early this morning Trying to B/S the community just to be Mr Right. Thats what I was talking about the other day. I don't care  about going back and looking a @ucking radar when I was out in it all night takeing pictures .When I saw guys in my area say its done and starting to mix and rain at  12:30am I knew what your gig was. What a joke. I have been up for 33 hours time for @ucking bed sorry for haveing to be a dick in your forum guys.

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6 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

So I injoyed the storm. It did come up short but I am calling total B/S on more than one persons very local reports from last night and early this morning Trying to B/S the community just to be Mr Right. Thats what I was talking about the other day. I don't care  about going back and looking a @ucking radar when I was out in it all night takeing pictures .When I saw guys in my area say its done and starting to mix and rain at  12:30am I knew what your gig was. What a joke. I have been up for 33 hours time for @ucking bed sorry for haveing to be a dick in your forum guys.

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that boy is wore out

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

You guys gotta remember that lighter rates often do that w/ marginal temps.  Dynamic cooling during better rates turn things back over to frozen.

Had ZR on the way into work, but once rates started to increase, it flipped back to sleet. 

I have freezing rain & sleet with some random snow flakes still mixed in here in Marysville.

I had just under 2 inches of snow from round one yesterday & about 3 inches from round two. Maybe I can pad the total slightly if I get some good sleet rates.

Overall, CTP’s forecast seemed to verify in the Harrisburg area. I think our southern tier crew might have even over performed.

I am happy that I got to see snow on 3 straight calendar days this week !

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Mostly sleet here with a few flakes mixed in. Sure hope it either stays that way or the temps go up cause I'm hanging tough at 27º and don't need freezing rain to screw my RDR2 marathon today with a power outage!

Just cleaned off my car - except for the windows. Have seen this rodeo before and 5+" of snow soaked with rain can be a bitch to clean off. But it does a great job of protecting windows from a coating of ice.

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30 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and when you look at the Fv3 and see 3" to fall in your backyard today and its already ZR/sleet, it makes you wonder what to expect. 

i'll follow it for the storm path and temp profiles, and not look at the hideous snow maps (although at a glance it was porntastic).

 

I have pretty much stopped looking at the FV3.  I guess if all else shows bad I will look at it for any clue of a different outcome.  You mentioned storm path and amde me think of an off shoot thought that any of the models I look at I do view the 500MB maps and do some extrapolating to try and figure out what the model is trying to predict but not as much as you do or or the MA LR/500MB map discussion thread.  There is a definitely a science to it and trying to match 500MB profiles with actual surface results is a valid forecast method but I think too much time is wasted in that field and in reading AFD's you do not see mention of it as much any more.   

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1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Weekend system getting more interesting.


.

Yes, this weekend & next week look very interesting indeed !

The pattern the next couple of weeks is loaded with potential for multiple winter storm chances !

We are going to be extremely busy here!

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, this weekend & next week look very interesting indeed !

The pattern the next couple of weeks is loaded with potential for multiple winter storm chances !

We are going to be extremely busy here!

Mecs or bust. 

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, this weekend & next week look very interesting indeed !

The pattern the next couple of weeks is loaded with potential for multiple winter storm chances !

We are going to be extremely busy here!

Good Stuff all. In Orlando right now at a work conf. It will be great to get back North soon to enjoy winter. 

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Just now, paweather said:

Good Stuff all. In Orlando right now at a work conf. It will be great to get back North soon to enjoy winter. 

Funny, I was in Orlando yesterday. In Ocala today.  

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3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Mecs or bust. 

 

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, this weekend & next week look very interesting indeed !

The pattern the next couple of weeks is loaded with potential for multiple winter storm chances !

We are going to be extremely busy here!

we're gonna nickel and dime our way to seasonal average :sled:

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Just now, paweather said:

I do enjoy the temps but ready to get back. 

It is too humid.  Was especially bad on Sunday if you were here then.  The best thing for me, when I come back to Florida, is Sweet Tomatoes restaurant but otherwise I agree with you.

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