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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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Measuring 3.4" now with round 2 (4.3" storm total) with moderate snow falling. Radar and mPing obs showing mix line closing in however, creeping into SW Blair County. 

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Sounding the pinger alert. Have cleared off measuring areas at 3.7" for round 2, so we'll see how the wintry mix evolves overnight. It's a pretty fine sleet right now with flakes and snow grains still in there, so it'll probably continue to accumulate. Temps only around 29ºF.

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30 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Sounding the pinger alert. Have cleared off measuring areas at 3.7" for round 2, so we'll see how the wintry mix evolves overnight. It's a pretty fine sleet right now with flakes and snow grains still in there, so it'll probably continue to accumulate. Temps only around 29ºF.

Looked like you had some pretty nice bands come through there about 30 mins ago. Thanks Mag for all the hard work you put in to stay on top of the weather and keeping so many people informed.   

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it did just die down to pixy dust for the first time here tonight for about 25 mins but activity has returned but the snow sleet is very slowly creeping in from the east but has held steady to the south for over 24 hours now.  there has been a little peninsula of warm air over the Chambersburg area down to md that is trying to expand my way but is having trouble   

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Tilt 2 (1.5º) on the CCX radar really showing the mix line creeping up on State College. The warm layer is too high to distinctly see it on the regular 0.5º tilt with how close to the radar it's getting. Looks like the warm tongue is near the 850mb level. P-type predominantly sleet here currently. 

1556755018_ScreenShot2019-02-12at3_02_34AM.thumb.png.2b2e050a554bf1c4a3acf6a242f7f174.png

11 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

Looked like you had some pretty nice bands come through there about 30 mins ago. Thanks Mag for all the hard work you put in to stay on top of the weather and keeping so many people informed.   

Your quite welcome man.

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Snow is barely even falling here now and it was already pretty slow for a few hours :\

 

Actually I looked on radar and it's completely stopped. It started really breaking up south of us. I haven't measured but it looks like there's barely 2 inches out there. Warning criteria for here was 4-6 inches.

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Yeah In York had a little over three inches round one. Snowed most the day started to pick back up around 6:30 PM. But I hasn’t snowed hard at all and the road is still just wet. Maybe closing in on two inches. Radar in York, Lancaster, Harrisburg area just keeps drying up. Could have been a lot  better of a storm for sure. Guess can’t complain to much if did snow again. 

8E27DA2F-CE98-4755-8B17-963928C5DC51.jpeg

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This sums things up:

NWUS51 KCTP 120846
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
346 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     SNOW             CASHTOWN                39.88N  77.34W
02/12/2019  M6.2 INCH        ADAMS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL. SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET AT 340 AM.
            SNOWFALL SINCE LATE SUNDAY EVENING, AS THERE WAS NO
            BREAK BETWEEN THE 2 EVENTS THIS CLOSE TO THE MD BORDER.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1900489
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love the shepherd

1 minute ago, Flatheadsickness said:

Still snowing here as of 5:06am never been very heavy just very little mixing in now    :

DSC01893.JPG

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DSC01886.JPG

love the shepherd

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Just measured 5" new snow to add to the 0.5 in round one. Not sure how much sleet may have mixed in during the night - hearing some pingers now, but primarily still snow. Very light precip.

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If there was really supposed to be heavy at times snow, as CTP's forecast at one point mentioned, we never saw it in far eastern Schuylkill County. Just woke up and took a 5:00am measurement (it's been snowing since 10:00pm last night) and I only have 1.4 inches from round 2. It's still snow and no mix, but it's quite light, and must have been for most, if not all, of the overnight hours..

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4 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said:

Total here from event 1 and 2 . I realize its bogous. Both pics are from around 4:45 am . It has stopped snowing here for the first time tonight 

 

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Love that pict of the house - great shot!

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Warm air is trying to work its way into the Harrisburg area now with some heavy returns. I hope the cold has a little fight left in it for a small comeback. If it can it should be the heaviest snow yet. Heading back out for hopefully a nice finish to a nice little storm.

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8 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Can we rely on the HRRR during the event for expectations?  That may sound like a silly question which has an obvious answer.  I would assume "yes", and, "that's what that model is made for."

 

I have been wavering in my opinion of using the HRRR for accumulations/qpf. It literally seems to change every hour.  Temp's have been ok as have location of features, within 18 hours, but it seems to pop up areas of heavy precip that do not materialize sometimes.  This was my first winter really using it and I am a bit disappointed with that aspect of it.   It does a great job during hurricane season.

 

I do want to add that big picture I think the Nam has done well this storm.  Not enough time to break it out but just the orientation of the snow, frozen, rain line right now.  GFS did pretty well the last few days as well.  As usual the UK was terrible when it came to snow accumulations. 

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Whatever is falling here(sleet/graupel) is very fine and light, but it really isn't pure snowflakes anymore...

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42 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Its just been mostly rain since i left for work at 530. i'm still at 29 degrees

@djr5001 what is your total?

Measured about 4.4” depth but the rain is already starting to impact that.  This snow did stick to trees/etc well so hoping the rain knocks it off rather than making it heavier on the limbs.  Models didn’t do a terrible job at all - just held onto the colder air longer to have longer period of sleet than what is occurring.  

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3 minutes ago, pawatch said:

1.5" and appears to be some freezing stuff.

NWS really dropped totals. 

 

image.jpg

Yea its for 7am to 7pm today and those 2” totals are just not going to happen.  Williamsport is already on the doorstep of the mixing line if it hasn’t already started to changeover there based on radar and mping obs

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