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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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22 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

This is for Adams:

WHAT...Snow then heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow
  accumulations of 3 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one half of an inch are expected.

 

 

20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

add York and Lancaster as well.

FYI - counties were wrong in the alerts that went out a half hour ago.  Adams/York/Lancaster have been corrected to 3-4” and .1-.2” ice not .5”

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3 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

 

FYI - counties were wrong in the alerts that went out a half hour ago.  Adams/York/Lancaster have been corrected to 3-4” and .1-.2” ice not .5”

That seems more reasonable 

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35 minutes ago, canderson said:

I jinxed it, back to super light snow. It’s melting quicker than falling again.

You must live next to a super heated wind tunnel ! 

The snow is sticking to everything here & coming down at a good rate.

MDT at 9pm had snow with .75 mile visibility.

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Here is the updated Winter Storm warning for the Harrisburg area & the remainder of CTP outside of the far southern tier of counties. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
843 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

PAZ017>019-026>028-036-056-057-059-063-121600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190212T2300Z/
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Including the cities of DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg,
State College, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown,
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, and Carlisle
843 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow then mixed precipitation. Additional snow and
  sleet accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of
  up to two tenths of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Clearfield, Northern Centre, Southern Centre, Mifflin
  and Juniata Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. The snow will transition to
  sleet during the predawn hours of Tuesday, before changing to
  mainly freezing rain during the late morning and afternoon
  hours Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will become dangerous due to the
  combination of precipitation types. Be prepared for
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

 

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I'm missing out on the heavier stuff.  The greens went south of me this morning.  They're north of me now, this evening.  Best I've got is dark blue but even staying in that has been a challenge.  Currently, temp is 30.7, almost moderate snow falling with 0.8" new snow on the board (round 2), 2.5" storms total.

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Was out and about the last couple hours. Nice moderate to heavy snow falling and 1.7" new since it started back up late this afternoon (2.6" total). Roads are trashed. 30ºF

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43 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Yea they are continuing the warning - likely pushed alerts because they messed up the counties yet again today and had York/Lancaster with a half inch ice instead of Johnstown/Altoona

I don't know why they didn't just bring the whole area up on warnings first thing this morning. It really hasn't been any mystery the last few days about this being a high impact event with both snow and ice thresholds near warning levels and it was evident this morning that the southern tier where it will change over the earliest wasn't really going to have a split 2 round event from last night and todays snowfall. 

Also a weird grouping having Blair/Bedford/Fulton lumped with the Laurel's counties (Cambria and Somerset). Especially Blair County, the HRRR has been steadfast on not even mixing from snow until 6 or 7am in this area and point and click has a complete zr transition by 4am. I don't think I'll get a half inch of ice here, that's probably going to happen on the Laurel's ridges. If the depth of the cold air is enough that the Laurel's have such a high ice potential, it's probable that Blair/Bedford/Fulton is going to have sleet mixing or perhaps a predominant p-type for awhile. Blair Co and Altoona probably should have been lumped with the group of warning counties that has UNV and MDT in it. 

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Can we rely on the HRRR during the event for expectations?  That may sound like a silly question which has an obvious answer.  I would assume "yes", and, "that's what that model is made for."

If that is the case then the 01Z run is giving me 5" of snow and 0.17" of ZR.  I'll take it!  BTW, it still has my surface temp at 32F at 0Z Wed.  By then the storm is nearly over.

Meanwhile, the 3km 0Z NAM wants to run a huge dry slot all through central PA during a good chunk of tomorrow.  Wonder how that will turn out???

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15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Can we rely on the HRRR during the event for expectations?  That may sound like a silly question which has an obvious answer.  I would assume "yes", and, "that's what that model is made for."

If that is the case then the 01Z run is giving me 5" of snow and 0.17" of ZR.  I'll take it!  BTW, it still has my surface temp at 32F at 0Z Wed.  By then the storm is nearly over.

Meanwhile, the 3km 0Z NAM wants to run a huge dry slot all through central PA during a good chunk of tomorrow.  Wonder how that will turn out???

That makes sense given the transfer of energy from the primary low to the secondary low. 

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29 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Can we rely on the HRRR during the event for expectations?  That may sound like a silly question which has an obvious answer.  I would assume "yes", and, "that's what that model is made for."

If that is the case then the 01Z run is giving me 5" of snow and 0.17" of ZR.  I'll take it!  BTW, it still has my surface temp at 32F at 0Z Wed.  By then the storm is nearly over.

Meanwhile, the 3km 0Z NAM wants to run a huge dry slot all through central PA during a good chunk of tomorrow.  Wonder how that will turn out???

These short range models are usually the best during an event.  Here is the latest HRRR & RAP

9F53F91E-2D6B-498F-8552-2A7554489056.png

CA0B5051-B22E-4BB5-AC42-C583EF48C9D4.png

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if you guys look to our south west and that dry slot in wv parts of md. if when that hits us and stops snowing the temps will bump up by the time we get precip back it will be sleet frz rain. ive seen it happen to many times. to keep the snow the longest we cant not get dry slotted.

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

These short range models are usually the best during an event.  Here is the latest HRRR & RAP

9F53F91E-2D6B-498F-8552-2A7554489056.png

CA0B5051-B22E-4BB5-AC42-C583EF48C9D4.png

Thanks for the maps!  Looks like they pretty much match up.  RAP looks a bit more generous UNV/Central otherwise about the same.

The single heaviest hour during the entire period gave me only 0.5" so it's kind of nickel and diming our way there overnight.

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23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The precip is filling in to our south & approaching rapidly from the west. I think we will not have any trouble with a dry slot here in PA.

F2C3BDE8-0E81-4695-A25C-71CC0009F910.gif

true its back building over ohio and points south west. but every time we are in this set up if we get dry slotted its game over for the snow. it either goes over to ice or rain depending on the temps and im still at 32. i was hoping some heavy precip would cool us off more then 1 degree.

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As of 4z, here is the approximate rain/snow line across our area. It appears to be on the doorstep of Bedford and propagating slowly northeastward. 

Looks like the 0z NAM so far has been pretty spot on as far as the mixing line in our area as well as 850 temperatures across the region, although it did miss the initial precip across the PHL area and South Jersey. 

rain snow line.PNG

0z nam feb 11.PNG

nam 850.PNG

mesoanalysis.PNG

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big damn surprise over eastern PA includding Harrisburg snow shut off look at radar yep it dried up. the damn weatherman was right again on us only getting 2-3 inchs over night. just cause of dry slotting lol im going to bed.

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21 minutes ago, canderson said:

Gonnna have to snow heavy to get to 5” before 7 am …

Unfortunately I agree with you, but let's see how it plays out.  The HRRR seemed to imply that there would be a heavy burst of snow over the MDT region around 12Z just before the change to sleet moved in.  It keeps us as all snow for another 7 hours.  There is still time for the hole to fill back in and snow to redevelop before the transition begins.

I just took my midnight ob and measured 1.5" of new snow on the board which gives me a storms total of 3.2".  It's still snowing light to moderately, less than 0.5"/hr.  Temp hasn't budged for the last 4 hours, sitting at 30.6 degrees.

I'll be back in the morning with an update.  Good luck to all overnight.

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I am really not sure what you guys are looking at now?

The Radar looks good & is filling in nicely.

Every reporting station from I-80 to the south is reporting some type of precip. It is supposed to snow in the Harrisburg area until at least 6 am. I think we get a few more inches of snow before the mixing begins.

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I can see Harrisburg from my house it never quit snowing here I do see there was a hole over the Harrisburg area about the size of Pinchot lake The dry slot if that is what is was is slowly filling in.

  

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Radar returns are going to look like the precip is dropping off as it moves from what is falling as rain/mix to the snow here east of the mountains so I’m guessing that is what is making it look like its drying up.

@canderson how much is in the city? I am back up to 4” and somehow must be doing better than both you and Carlisle 

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I am really not sure what you guys are looking at now?

The Radar looks good & is filling in nicely.

Every reporting station from I-80 to the south is reporting some type of precip. It is supposed to snow in the Harrisburg area until at least 6 am. I think we get a few more inches of snow before the mixing begins.

 

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