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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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31 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Someone care to explain their thinking here...Just a weird map.

image.jpg

In their defense a lot of modeling has had that bullseye about where they show it on their map...

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51 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Patiently waiting to get back into the game here, haha. Been about a 14 hour lull. 

Well this could get real nasty for us MAG

PAZ024-025-120130-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190212T1700Z/
/O.EXB.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190212T2100Z/
Cambria-Blair-
Including the cities of Johnstown and Altoona
1230 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations
  of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one half of an
  inch are expected.

* WHERE...Cambria and Blair Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Tuesday. Snow will mix with sleet and
  freezing rain later today and become all freezing rain this
  evening and tonight. The temperatures will warm slightly Tuesday
  to change the precipitation to plain rain during the mid
  afternoon.

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havent had a real lul here we will go 30 mins without snow then a snow shower or light snow for a hour hits no real accumulation. a tick above freezing at 33 the forecast tho was for 36 gonna bust low :) esp when the snow moves in temps will drop a few im thinking.

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Honestly confused why CTP raised UNV, if anything I’ve become more bearish based on modeling trends today. With an anticipated transition around 12z, I’m struggling to see how we get to 7 inches even if it includes sleet unless there are crazy snow rates to start, which isn’t really supported by VV or forcing.

I would also be mindful of a dry slot across C PA late Tuesday as the secondary low develops. I think this would limit our window for plain rain locally at least. 

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2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Just hit 4”

Damn good for you. So far a non event for Harrisburg - no accumulation since early this am. We will see how rates tonight get and hopefully reach the WSW criteria. 

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4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Yea pawatch, surprised me...CAD is our bread and butter, yet lower totals than Hburg and environs.

I think QPF could be a reason, best QPF for this system has been in western and southern PA. That bullseye in the central mountains likely is a combination of best QPF vs longest duration of frozen. Conversely, I don't know about the higher totals to the northeast of IPT. Models are showing a weakness in QPF in the BGM region into NE PA. Either way, only talking the difference of a couple inches. I know their daytime discussion was talking about lackluster snow ratios with this too (starting 10:1) as well.

Quote
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

Many locations will have ice by the time it is all over later
Tues, but the impacts due to ice should be less serious over
the NE half of the fcst area due to the snow and sleet first.
Snow does look like it will be the predominant p-type for the NE
through much of the day.

SLRs during the event will decrease as the air gets warmer
aloft and since sleet may occur. SLRs could finish as low as
6:1 with a deep, moist, cold layer under a mid-cloud DGZ. The
soundings do not look like sleet to me, more like a very wet
snow or change then to rain (ZR if the sfcs are still frozen).

The warm air attempts to move northward, but many factors seem
to be conspiring against a decent warm nose aloft over much of
the area tonight. The column does warm (pretty much
isothermally). The snow rates never seem to be very high. It`s a
very gradual precip. Per the latest HREF progs, the highest
chance of 1"+/hr rates would be 00-06Z in the central counties
then 06-14Z in the Nrn/NErn counties.

Impacts to Tues morning commute will be widespread and likely
significant. It could still be messy in the late aftn/early
evening, esp in the northeastern half of the area where precip
will still be going. But, the type of precip during the
preceding hours is key to how much travel conditions will
improve. Half or more of the area could be rain by then, but
the slop which fell before hand could keep it slushy even there.

Maxes will occur very late in the day (perhaps not even until
late evening).

Watching their discussions and products from last night to this afternoon, it seems the day shift is opting impact over splitting hairs on warning criteria. The night crew originally put south central and all LSV in advisories for just about the same thing (bumped up ice in the south central) I kind of agree with the widespread warning zone, most are going to get at least near warning criteria snow IMO, with the ice impacts on top. The ones that don't (Laurels) are going to easily see warning criteria freezing rain. It's a high impacting weather event. Also complicating is the the fact that some of the southern tier has not really had a break in precip while others have had a long lasting lull. York/Lancaster counties were kept in advisories but they have benefitted from the early snows. 

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lol is this in total for both phases of the storm? cause i all ready have slightly over 2 inchs. its forecast to snow from about 430pm till 12pm 1pm tomorrow before change over. thats almost 24 hours. some snow is said to be mod to heavy bands. I doubt we only get 2.2 inchs unless the mother of all dry slots hit us. oh damn i did it we gonna get dry slotted. btw im talking about the new nam 

 

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3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

lol is this in total for both phases of the storm? cause i all ready have slightly over 2 inchs. its forecast to snow from about 430pm till 12pm 1pm tomorrow before change over. thats almost 24 hours. some snow is said to be mod to heavy bands. I doubt we only get 2.2 inchs unless the mother of all dry slots hit us. oh damn i did it we gonna get dry slotted. btw im talking about the new nam 

 

The totals in the current forecast do not include what fell last night into this morning.  Their current snowfall projection maps indicate a start time of this afternoon.  Also, it is very likely that LSV is into the change / mixed precip before or by 12Z Tuesay (7:00AM).  So you are basically looking at the next 12 to 14 hours for accumulating snowfall to reach projected amounts.  Sun needs to set and rates need to pick up to drop temp below 32.  I'm currently sitting at 32.9 and have been above freezing for the past 5 hours.  Peaked at 33.7 before dropping back down.  My 1.8" of snow from overnight has melted to less than 1/2 remaining.

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50 minutes ago, irvingtwosmokes said:

Well this could get real nasty for us MAG

PAZ024-025-120130-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190212T1700Z/
/O.EXB.KCTP.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190212T2100Z/
Cambria-Blair-
Including the cities of Johnstown and Altoona
1230 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations
  of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to one half of an
  inch are expected.

* WHERE...Cambria and Blair Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST Tuesday. Snow will mix with sleet and
  freezing rain later today and become all freezing rain this
  evening and tonight. The temperatures will warm slightly Tuesday
  to change the precipitation to plain rain during the mid
  afternoon.

Yea it looks pretty ugly around these parts. I think the best chance for the 0.5" ice is going to be on the ridge tops, especially the Allegheny front ridgeline that borders Cambria/Blair and Somerset/Bedford. 

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

Yea it looks pretty ugly around these parts. I think the best chance for the 0.5" ice is going to be on the ridge tops, especially the Allegheny front ridgeline that borders Cambria/Blair and Somerset/Bedford. 

I'll bet Peggy Westover curve will be entertaining.

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41 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The totals in the current forecast do not include what fell last night into this morning.  Their current snowfall projection maps indicate a start time of this afternoon.  Also, it is very likely that LSV is into the change / mixed precip before or by 12Z Tuesay (7:00AM).  So you are basically looking at the next 12 to 14 hours for accumulating snowfall to reach projected amounts.  Sun needs to set and rates need to pick up to drop temp below 32.  I'm currently sitting at 32.9 and have been above freezing for the past 5 hours.  Peaked at 33.7 before dropping back down.  My 1.8" of snow from overnight has melted to less than 1/2 remaining.

still find it odd that the nam gives me so little when the nws upped the totals for me to 3-6 more likely higher then the lower amounts. vs just 2 days ago where this was said to be mostly rain but all the mets on tuesday.

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2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

CC showing mix/sleet line extending into PA northwest of Hagerstown.

dded74cf0273ef91cd9325e2b9939883.jpg


.

I predict that that line will be squashed southward below the M/D line once the heavier rates arrive.

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I guess I was expecting more of a line (snow/mix) than a circle on that map I posted.

Just seemed weird....Good Luck to everyone!!

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Temp finally back down to 32.0.  My board has a whopping dusting on it.  Sidewalks and roads just wet.   Right now I  have a steady but pretty light snow falling.:violin:

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hmm radar expands then goes dry in my area for the last 4 hours. looks like this storm will be late getting started in my area. I should say phase 2 is late getting started.

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