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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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Really looking forward to tomorrow. It looks like good timing for me to catch the whole thing. I prefer the heaviest stuff to come between 5pm and 2:00am. I do work over the winter but I work for my self so being a single dad years ago I chose to work over night after my landscaping season comes to an end so I can sleep while my boy was at school and do the dad thing until he goes to bed then work or play if I chose until I needed to get him up .  Now he gets him self up and off but I found the night thing so peaceful and productive over the winter I will probably continue till my death, and when and if I can ever retire I will go 100% nocturnal .Not to mention the high that most of us here get from the ionic and biological effects storms have on are Nero systems and bodys are strongest at night especially if the storm and or ground is electricity charged. It gets me and old Jim at the weather channel and many others in tune with it super stoned the nights fleshes also adds to the Nero effect . 93 should be called the dragon storm because all us storm junkys are still chasing it.  I turn 40 in 6 days I am hoping for a miracle 17th into the 18th but it looks like this one will do and tonight was fun as always for me A powerful headlamp makes every snow seam like a thumper lol.

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What I am saying is its not the wind snow depths lightning or mesocyclones we are really after its the feelings and memory of the feelings of it we are really chasing . The planet will never run out of storms but you will run out of time  So get out and enjoy what she @ucking gives you.

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0.9" on the ground from the snow earlier in the evening. Cleared off with the lull, which may last for several hours before precip comes back north in earnest late this morning/early afternoon. 

CTP going high end advisories in the south central and LSV counties, 3-5" additional for all with 1-2 tenths ice in the south central (AOO/JST, Bedford, Huntingdon, etc) and 1 tenth for LSV counties. Warning for Somerset for >0.25" ice and for now holding watches for 4-8" and 0.1" ice UNV region and north central.  

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Moisture has already returned here in the southern county's there was only about a 2 hour lull here in Fairview township and it appears to be setting up well here for us. The stream of moisture is slightly broken but it looks to me to be orienting that is should  be at least light to mod snow for quit a while as long as the rain/snow line keeps holding strong as it has all night well to the south of the md line. It just did another dance south. I think its looking good but I am no expert.      

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7 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

The "impression" you get from NWS point n click is that another quarter to half inch of "liquid" falls in the overnight period.  I think that part is totally bogus and the storm is like you said, some light showers.  I guess I'm just picking apart what it says, which I think gives the impression that a fair amount of liquid rain is going to fall Tuesday evening and overnight.

from looking at the future radars and maps looks like from what i see unless it changes most falls as frozen maybe 1 1/2 hours as rain to 2 1/2 hours give or take. but like i always say models are normally meh. it comes down to real time forecasting at this time.

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18 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

so, if this is round 2, not much of a break then. 27 degrees and i just shoveled 1 1/2"

It does look like the radar is building back to the north over the LSV. 

The precip shield is immense & stretches back to north Texas. Things could get even more interesting if we do not ever get a true break in the snow.

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19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It does look like the radar is building back to the north over the LSV. 

The precip shield is immense & stretches back to north Texas. Things could get even more interesting if we do not ever get a true break in the snow.

I agree.   Pitt radar really shows back building and I think the snow continues.  

M1.8” at 7am

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30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It does look like the radar is building back to the north over the LSV. 

The precip shield is immense & stretches back to north Texas. Things could get even more interesting if we do not ever get a true break in the snow.

could be a fun day. Rush hour will suck i'm sure. 

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O.EXT.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190212T1700Z/
Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
350 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected. Periods of snow
  will continue today and mix with freezing rain and sleet
  tonight. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice
  accumulations of one tenth of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Dauphin, Lebanon, York and Lancaster Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Periods of light snow will produce another
  coating to inch through midday. Snow will increase again later
  this afternoon and tonight before mixing with and changing to
  sleet and freezing rain. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during both the evening commute on Monday and morning
  commute on Tuesday.

? Wrong counties listed in the wwa 

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I had a low of 20 degrees overnight, about 8 degrees colder than what they was predicting.

Just a dusting on the truck and a coating on my lane. Looks like CPT tighten up the 6" area.

Hopefully with the CAD this storm turns out to be a good storm for most of us.

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not sure where my last post went but here goes. 2 inchs over night into this morning looks like the radar is breaking up sadly. my niece was on a 2 hour delay then school was called off most likely wont go tomorrow either with the way the forecast is. she all rdy has off friday for in service and monday for a holiday. shes gonna have a nice extended break off this week.

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About 1.5" overnight when I went and cleared the walk around 7:30. Still snowing. 

CTP dropped the Winter Storm Watch for Dauphin and we just have a WWA through the end of the event now. 

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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

well looky at WSPT dude sitting in the jackpot zone AGAIN !!

pretty cool how you can move da mousy over the different snow depths (above second graphic) and it shows likely percentage.  I never noticed that before....lol

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter

That map shows a 1 p.m. precip start time.

:looks outside:

It's never stopped snowing. 

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

well looky at WSPT dude sitting in the jackpot zone AGAIN !!

pretty cool how you can move da mousy over the different snow depths (up top) and it shows likely percentage.  I never noticed that before....lol

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter

That is really cool and I too never knew you could do that - thanks! Took me awhile to figure out exactly where you meant.

In case there's anyone else as dense as I am, these are where to hover:

image.thumb.png.060e4ba6d5e375a4e3385af68e7b34f8.png

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Now that we have the 7am sounding data available - I was checking some model data for 7am vs the observed sounding data for a few sites south and west (with 12z HRRR vs observed as an example below for Dulles).  Other than 12z NAM finally noticing it - several recent model runs had the leading edge of the warm layer around 925mb a little further south than what the observed data is showing.  Could mean absolutely nothing over central PA for now but worth watching as p-type reports show up later around Mason-Dixon Line.  Current changeover line looks to be running from Frederick to Baltimore along I-70.  While the cold air may barely hang on at the surface it sure is going to get warm aloft during the day tomorrow at least across southern PA.

image.thumb.png.e678918d11920817caa9cbd92b9ba8c1.png

IAD.thumb.png.ed82714d9f145bf7b62710861fd41815.png

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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

That map shows a 1 p.m. precip start time.

:looks outside:

It's never stopped snowing. 

I know.  Nice steady light snow here in ETown.

Looks like mid afternoon is the "real" round 2.  Perty outside.

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11 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

That is really cool and I too never knew you could do that - thanks! Took me awhile to figure out exactly where you meant.

In case there's anyone else as dense as I am, these are where to hover:

image.thumb.png.060e4ba6d5e375a4e3385af68e7b34f8.png

lol, i revised my post cause I couldnt figure out what i was sayin.  I revised to say "second graphic"

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Morning all...

Looks like I've got 1.7" total on the board for the storm 1 event.  Had 0.8" at midnight followed by another 0.9" up to the present.  It is still snowing very lightly, not enough to accumulate, but it still looks pretty against the woods backdrop of my backyard along with the birds.

Well, no warning, which seems a bit odd given that the criteria for a warning is 5"+ in 12 hours or 8"+ in 24 hours.  I think they're gun-shy from the previous bust.  Time will tell.  The radar looks like Franklin, Adams, York, and Lanco counties are getting hit pretty good right now from early storm 2.

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Just now, pasnownut said:

I know.  Nice steady light snow here in ETown.

Looks like mid afternoon is the "real" round 2.  Perty outside.

Thats what i was thinking as well, just in time for the idiots to be driving. Anyone know what the State did or is doing? 

It does look nice out, looking forward to snow removal and my most recent batch of moonshine :drunk:

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Just now, sauss06 said:

Thats what i was thinking as well, just in time for the idiots to be driving. Anyone know what the State did or is doing? 

It does look nice out, looking forward to snow removal and my most recent batch of moonshine :drunk:

gut says rush hour shouldnt be horrible, as im sure most roads will be treated, and it'll need to come down fast n furious to overcome.  

with the likely sleet tomorrow morning....thats another story, as it may be coming down hard enough to "cave" roads.

Peach moonshine.............mmmmmmmmmmm

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9 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Morning all...

Looks like I've got 1.7" total on the board for the storm 1 event.  Had 0.8" at midnight followed by another 0.9" up to the present.  It is still snowing very lightly, not enough to accumulate, but it still looks pretty against the woods backdrop of my backyard along with the birds.

Well, no warning, which seems a bit odd given that the criteria for a warning is 5"+ in 12 hours or 8"+ in 24 hours.  I think they're gun-shy from the previous bust.  Time will tell.  The radar looks like Franklin, Adams, York, and Lanco counties are getting hit pretty good right now from early storm 2.

LWX may need to bump up totals for their northern tier ahead of the changeover - right now only have 1-2" for Hagerstown/Westminster/Bel Air with some 2" reports already starting to show up.  A good bit of moisture overhead for the main event so far to the south and west! 

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4 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

LWX may need to bump up totals for their northern tier - right now only have 1-2" for Hagerstown/Westminster/Bel Air with some 2" reports already starting to show up.  A good bit of moisture overhead for the main event so far to the south and west!

Looking at the wide radar it looks like perhaps storm 1 is still over us and leading edge of storm 2 is out in eastern OH entering western PA.  But, who really cares since any echoes over us right now will produce snow!  lol

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11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

gut says rush hour shouldnt be horrible, as im sure most roads will be treated, and it'll need to come down fast n furious to overcome.  

with the likely sleet tomorrow morning....thats another story, as it may be coming down hard enough to "cave" roads.

Peach moonshine.............mmmmmmmmmmm

root-beer

 

snow almost stopped here now in Harrisburg

 

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

anyone know where Daxx and Imatrainerdude are??

 

Both have seemingly been MIA for the past week at least.  Hope all is ok with them.

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