djr5001 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 56 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: FV3 most bullish of NAM/GFS models for Friday with 2-3" in our area. Other 3 are 1" or less. Wonder how long it will hold on to this 2/8 storm? After the Euro comes out maybe someone with access can tell us if that storm is showing up on it? Euro has a low pressure system around 2/7-2/8 but there is no digging so it tracks well to our north and west. Euro is actually pretty dry for LSV for the next week leading up to that system. 12z run has Harrisburg reaching 67F on Tuesday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 21 minutes ago, djr5001 said: Euro has a low pressure system around 2/7-2/8 but there is no digging so it tracks well to our north and west. Euro is actually pretty dry for LSV for the next week leading up to that system. 12z run has Harrisburg reaching 67F on Tuesday lol. If it cannot be cold and snowy let's enjoy a warm day or two. LOL. If we do not get some blocking we are going to lose the first 1/2 of February. It has "seemed" cold this month but we are actually facing departures near 2 degrees + now. Today and tomorrow will dent that back but starting off February so warm we risk have all 3 months of Met winter being positive departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: If it cannot be cold and snowy let's enjoy a warm day or two. LOL. If we do not get some blocking we are going to lose the first 1/2 of February. It has "seemed" cold this month but we are actually facing departures near 2 degrees + now. Today and tomorrow will dent that back but starting off February so warm we risk have all 3 months of Met winter being positive departures. Don't worry, May will be a -3 or -4 departure I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 The wind and snow is really blowing here. 43mph gust here. Wind steady @ 23mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 We can enjoy winter for a couple of days but so interesting that this is lining up like the Halloween Snowstorm years ago, someone told me the year but forgot it, where we had that snow early and then winter fizzled. Seems to meet the pattern here where we had the mid November snowstorm and then December was not good, most of January failed, and February starting out not warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, pawatch said: The wind and snow is really blowing here. 43mph gust here. Wind steady @ 23mph That was the one bad glitch in an otherwise fairly decent weather station. My anemometer was never correct. Peak gust, even during Sandy, was a meager 26 mph, and the highest I've ever recorded was 29 mph, and that was a gust that I thought was going to rip the back wall off of our house. Everything else (rain, temp, etc) was close to spot on. So far today, my station's highest gust was 19 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: That was the one bad glitch in an otherwise fairly decent weather station. My anemometer was never correct. Peak gust, even during Sandy, was a meager 26 mph, and the highest I've ever recorded was 29 mph, and that was a gust that I thought was going to rip the back wall off of our house. Everything else (rain, temp, etc) was close to spot on. So far today, my station's highest gust was 19 mph. The wind reading is coming from Pennsylvania College of technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, paweather said: We can enjoy winter for a couple of days but so interesting that this is lining up like the Halloween Snowstorm years ago, someone told me the year but forgot it, where we had that snow early and then winter fizzled. Seems to meet the pattern here where we had the mid November snowstorm and then December was not good, most of January failed, and February starting out not warm. 2011 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: 2011 I believe. yep you were the one that probably told me. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I do not have an anemometer but I am guessing sustained is over 30mph here right now with gusts in the 50-60 range. I just had to walk several yards down to get my trash can back. It is not just a regular round can it is one of those ~100 gallon boys on wheels and the wind below it about an acre away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: I do not have an anemometer but I am guessing sustained is over 30mph here right now with gusts in the 50-60 range. I just had to walk several yards down to get my trash can back. It is not just a regular round can it is one of those ~100 gallon boys on wheels and the wind below it about an acre away. Wow!!! I don't know about anyone else, but I'm down 14 degrees since FROPA. It was 24 before the squalls hit, and it's now down to 10 with some insane wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, Voyager said: Wow!!! I don't know about anyone else, but I'm down 14 degrees since FROPA. It was 24 before the squalls hit, and it's now down to 10 with some insane wind gusts. I cannot ever recall a temp drop like what we all experienced today but I am sure my memory is failing me and we had one at some point. And as to my trash can, I am the dummy who has it sitting west side of house and once it gets knocked over and the lid opened it starts flipping with wind like this. I am about 10% up a mountain and there is nothing to my west except lowland into Maryland so it is a wind tunnel. Plus I think this makes me the first trash can post of the day @canderson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, paweather said: We can enjoy winter for a couple of days but so interesting that this is lining up like the Halloween Snowstorm years ago, someone told me the year but forgot it, where we had that snow early and then winter fizzled. Seems to meet the pattern here where we had the mid November snowstorm and then December was not good, most of January failed, and February starting out not warm. I wanted to mention 2011 back in November . So much great weather that year but barely a hit of winter from late oct through the rest of winter. I harvested Brussel sprouts and carrots in December and more in February that year 2011-2012 . Cicadas where singing by late April Large mouth bass and catfish where actively feeding all winter long . now that I am thinking really nothing like this winter at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I cannot ever recall a temp drop like what we all experienced today but I am sure my memory is failing me and we had one at some point. And as to my trash can, I am the dummy who has it sitting west side of house and once it gets knocked over and the lid opened it starts flipping with wind like this. I am about 10% up a mountain and there is nothing to my west except lowland into Maryland so it is a wind tunnel. Plus I think this makes me the first trash can post of the day @canderson Last year I finally got start and keep mine in my garage. Where I live I get wild wind coming from the river up an alley so yea. Wind sucks. It's the worst weather thing save for freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 36 minutes ago, paweather said: We can enjoy winter for a couple of days but so interesting that this is lining up like the Halloween Snowstorm years ago, someone told me the year but forgot it, where we had that snow early and then winter fizzled. Seems to meet the pattern here where we had the mid November snowstorm and then December was not good, most of January failed, and February starting out not warm. A big problem we've had this winter has been storm track when it has been especially active and the pattern has been progressive. Considering we're in the middle of lap 2 of the MJO 4-6 realm in just the past month and a half I think we've been pretty fortunate. I think there's too much cold air in the pattern for us to have a dominant warm pattern in the east but I think the unfavorable phases has been rearing it's ugly head in the form of storms coming up a bit too far west. The rapid warm up early next week is probably something that's been overdue, and it might not last more than 3-5 days. Comparing this winter to 2011-2012... nah. Harrisburg probably already has more snowfall this winter than they had in that whole winter (12.5"). I've had close to as much snow just this month as I did in that winter (had low to mid 20s for the winter) and snow on the ground since the 7th. Aside from the two snow events that left our region high and dry in favor of the Mid-Atlantic region (both times with MJO in better phases), this winter thus far has favored interior regions in PA/NY and New England. 2011-2012 favored no one in the Mid-Atlantic/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: A big problem we've had this winter has been storm track when it has been especially active and the pattern has been progressive. Considering we're in the middle of lap 2 of the MJO 4-6 realm in just the past month and a half I think we've been pretty fortunate. I think there's too much cold air in the pattern for us to have a dominant warm pattern in the east but I think the unfavorable phases has been rearing it's ugly head in the form of storms coming up a bit too far west. The rapid warm up early next week is probably something that's been overdue, and it might not last more than 3-5 days. And the consistency of the storms location, Lower Ohio Valley to Interior Northeast or transfer to the Upper MA Coast, has been pretty amazing. We have had so many since late November, probably over 1/2 dozen, that it is hard to imagine what it would be like if that same thing had happened but with a track through the Lower Tennessee Valley and off the Lower MA coast. We would be challenging 75" of snow by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Apparently there was/is a massive 30-to-40 car pileup on 222 in Berks County. That sucks. Edit: 27 cars, according to a NBC news affiliate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I think if we keep up with theses big swiings with climo we should see a big reaction or two somewhere around on of the swings. We have seen it before a few times in are past. Big swings hit long balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Before we start assessing the significance of our warm up next week too heavily I also wouldn't sleep on Fridays snow event either if I were below I-80 and especially along the turnpike south. Could be another 1-3" scattered higher amounts type event. Looks like higher would favor Laurel's but if this ends up a tad more juiced up we could be talking another advisory type event across the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Had roughly a half inch of snowfall this morning/afternoon, which has been blown around with the blustery winds. Back to 2 degrees here according to the nearest mesowest station up the street. An actual weather station for my home is something I've wanted to invest in, I only have an atomic clock thermometer for getting a rough temp. That's at 5ºF but it runs a couple degrees high. Either way, it's not going to be a matter of if we go below zero but how far below zero it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Before we start assessing the significance of our warm up next week too heavily I also wouldn't sleep on Fridays snow event either if I were below I-80 and especially along the turnpike south. Could be another 1-3" scattered higher amounts type event. Looks like higher would favor Laurel's but if this ends up a tad more juiced up we could be talking another advisory type event across the southern tier. ...and to me the additional tack on significance is that possibly for the first time since the November storm, surface temps are not going to be an issue though intensity may be. 2 or3" of snow starting Friday Am could actually cancel schools at these temps. The Nam and the "Model for which we do not speak of" both show it snowing for about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Had roughly a half inch of snowfall this morning/afternoon, which has been blown around with the blustery winds. Back to 2 degrees here according to the nearest mesowest station up the street. An actual weather station for my home is something I've wanted to invest in, I only have an atomic clock thermometer for getting a rough temp. That's at 5ºF but it runs a couple degrees high. Either way, it's not going to be a matter of if we go below zero but how far below zero it goes. The skies have cleared, the winds have died down, 6" ice/snow base and sitting at 1 degree. It's going to get damn cold tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, irvingtwosmokes said: The skies have cleared, the winds have died down, 6" ice/snow base and sitting at 1 degree. It's going to get damn cold tonight. It sure is, I saw KJST at the top of the hill is already at -6ºF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Before we start assessing the significance of our warm up next week too heavily I also wouldn't sleep on Fridays snow event either if I were below I-80 and especially along the turnpike south. Could be another 1-3" scattered higher amounts type event. Looks like higher would favor Laurel's but if this ends up a tad more juiced up we could be talking another advisory type event across the southern tier. I was looking at that event...won’t rates be exceptionally high due to how cold it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 -1 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'm at +4 right now. Winds were howling, but as has been mentioned, they have backed off considerably. I do believe, if winds stay light, we can make a run for -5 to -10 even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 25 minutes ago, Voyager said: I'm at +4 right now. Winds were howling, but as has been mentioned, they have backed off considerably. I do believe, if winds stay light, we can make a run for -5 to -10 even here. Your probably good for -5 or so even with a decent breeze. A look at dew points on some of the meso ob sites show dews in the -10 to -20 range and a lot below -15ºF region wide. Meso ob site closest to Tamaqua in Tuscarora State Park showing 1 degree with a -18ºF dew point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 5/-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Down to +4 here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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