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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I'm realllllllly curious if MDT breaks 0 tomorrow night. If winds die off quickly I think they'll have a good chance. 

I honestly think it may depend on how fast the river freezes over.  Not completely frozen based on it being currently a little elevated (~ 10 feet at the Harrisburg gauge and slowly falling) with wind out of west/northwest I bet it gets held up a few degrees above just because of location of equipment.

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Snow finally just re-started here again as well.  Only had a dusting from the earlier snow.  Temp 29.1.  DP 23.  Ramped up quickly to moderate intensity.

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Good luck bud.  Nice to see you back...i've seen you lurking.  Get in here and muck it up with us.

I've got several clients in NH.  I get there often.  Like your Chinese buffet behind the Insurance place.  Yummy.

Thanks man, I'm actually down at Shady Maple, as I'm sure you know that place :).  I'll try to stop in more often.  Take care.

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Iphone screen busted yesterday.  I need to wait a few days for my replacement.  I usually use radarscope.  What are some good online radar websites?

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6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

am i crazy, but it looks like the temperature goes up like 5-8 degrees from now until around 5ish, then steadily starts declining? 

Currently at 31, probably gets to 33-34. Snow will have a hard time sticking on main roads unless we get really good rates I'd guess - the state is closing 3.5 hours early though. 

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Currently at 31, probably gets to 33-34. Snow will have a hard time sticking on main roads unless we get really good rates I'd guess - the state is closing 3.5 hours early though. 

good, i won't have to put up with that BS then

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In case anyone was wondering how my <1” panned out...

2D93EEBE-EF6B-4699-B81C-6AD244F218C8.thumb.jpeg.36b9284378249d60aa091b418ccccbd5.jpeg

I got a 2.2” fluff bomb this morning, aka >1”. 

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Being honest I agree with you, I was mainly going with some schools make delay decisions based on that criteria so in turn impacts the stupids.

I get ya, but you get me as well.  Any School admin should be smart enough to use better judgement and make a reasonable call (wrt the anomalous cold we are going to see) - its really not that tough a decision just based on raw numbers.

Calling school for 31 and snow flurries....well....now that's another story

Oh the liability age we've built is just ruining us. 

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47 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

am i crazy, but it looks like the temperature goes up like 5-8 degrees from now until around 5ish, then steadily starts declining? 

dude.....you're crazy

 

:lol:

thats what the HRRR was showing this morning.  35-6 then we drop.  I say we cave with heavy rates incoming....lol

hrrr_T2m_neus_4.png

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Has been snowing light to moderate here for about 1.5 hours.  No accumulation outside grass  and trash can type stuff.  It is 30 but just a bit too warm to take over the roads.

 

 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:
8 hours ago, Voyager said:

 

This must have been a post about the ICON.  Deleted before the paper was dry. 

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Just now, bubbler86 said:

This must have been a post about the ICON.  Deleted before the paper was dry. 

dude....my puter and phone got stuck....was replying to Voyager earlier this am and thought it posted.  

cant delete....wtf?

Carry on................

lol

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BTW, nooner takeaway is that it warms for 3-4 days next week, then by Thursday we start the slide back down and have troughiness saggin south in the east.  Looks much better than a few days ago #winteruncancel....Ithink

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2:30 report

Mod Snow - bigger dendrites....starting to look snowglobish outside w/ better stuff en route here.

Hoping everyone got in on it a bit.

 

Nut

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Sn+ here. Would probably have 2" at this point if we were just a few degrees colder.  Grass is almost covered but roads are just wet.  30 degrees.  

 

Edit-This is the first snow, since moving here last summer, that I am seeing the effects and advantage of uplifting being on the side of South Mountain.  15-20 dBz echos become 30 dBz as they cross over.  

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Moderate with increasing flake size, so perhaps heading towards heavy.  At the high temp of the day of 30.0.  It won't go much higher since we're past peak insolation.  Sticking everywhere but streets/rooftops.  Beginning to stick to car windshields.  Closing in on about 1/2" accumulation.

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Moderate snow as well here that is NOT of the usual pixie dust variety so regularly seen up my way. Haven't measured yet, but eyeballing about 2 inches.

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4 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

What are odds NWS stays literal with chill advisory instead of warning...in this dangerous cold why not just get attention and do two day warning.

The schools in this county usually at least delay with advisory criteria wind chills, which -15ºF is the threshold for. Warning threshold is -25ºF in all the state, which our temps/wind combo probably won't be enough to achieve the warning criteria outside of the north central and Laurel's where winds will be higher and temps lower. Either way, those wind chills are pretty serious business and it's likely most schools/other organizations are taking the major cold snap seriously. Heck Penn State Main Campus of all places cancelled all afternoon classes last Thursday. Why? Simply because it was supposed to get cold after it rained and things might ice back over. 

Speaking of wind chills, imagine if we were still using the old wind chill chart that was used prior to 2001. A -5ºF temp and a 20mph wind would have given you an apparent temp of -46ºF, lol. 

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10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The schools in this county usually at least delay with advisory criteria wind chills, which -15ºF is the threshold for. Warning threshold is -25ºF in all the state, which our temps/wind combo probably won't be enough to achieve the warning criteria outside of the north central and Laurel's where winds will be higher and temps lower. Either way, those wind chills are pretty serious business and it's likely most schools/other organizations are taking the major cold snap seriously. Heck Penn State Main Campus of all places cancelled all afternoon classes last Thursday. Why? Simply because it was supposed to get cold after it rained and things might ice back over. 

Speaking of wind chills, imagine if we were still using the old wind chill chart that was used prior to 2001. A -5ºF temp and a 20mph wind would have given you an apparent temp of -46ºF, lol. 

Schools heating systems struggle to keep up, especially older buildings. back a couple years ago when we had a "polar Vortex", we had a call at one of schools. It was an issue related to the heating system. The head maint. guy told me after temps reach a certain point, it was outrageous how much it cost to heat for one day. I don't remember the $$ number, but it was crazy. as a tax payer i was glad the closed schools for a couple days :lol:  

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Maybe 1.5” here? Roads are clear (alleys covered) so at least towns can save some money. :)

Roads now snowcovered in ETown.  Snowing nicely.  Hopin we can add a couple inches.  Eyeballin 1" ish here.

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4 hours ago, canderson said:

I'm realllllllly curious if MDT breaks 0 tomorrow night. If winds die off quickly I think they'll have a good chance. 

If not they have a really good chance at beating the next two days daily record min and probably Thursday's record max min. The crazy part about this cold is that with how significant the cold airmass is.. it's pretty likely that the lakes with only about 30% ice coverage (fairly normal actually this time in Jan) are going to save us to a degree with surface temps (along with the core of the PV lifting somewhat north of here). The stuff west of the lakes in Chicago and that region as a whole is amazing. Like that's legitimate -20 to -30ºF air with the wind blowing and not localized radiational cooling. Not an airmass seen very often that far into the heart of the US. 

Quote
.CLIMATE...
Bitterly cold temperatures are expected for the second half of
the work-week. Here are some record mini-maxes and record
minimum temperatures for central PA climate sites for Wednesday
(1/30) and Thursday (1/31):

Record minimums on Wednesday, 1/30:
Williamsport: -6F (1948)
Harrisburg: 2F (2014)
Altoona: 2F (2014)
Johnstown: -9F (1963)
Bradford: -14F (1965)

Record mini-maxes on Wednesday, 1/30:
Williamsport: 12F (1934)
Harrisburg: 13F (1934)
Altoona: 11F (1966)
Johnstown: 9F (1934)
Bradford: -1F (1977)

Record minimums on Thursday, 1/31:
Williamsport: -14F (1948)
Harrisburg: 2F (1948)
Altoona: 0F (1977)
Johnstown: -8F (1977)
Bradford: -13F (2010)

Record mini-maxes on Thursday, 1/31:
Williamsport: 15F (1971)
Harrisburg: 20F (1966)
Altoona: 13F (2004)
Johnstown: 12F (1966)
Bradford: 2F (1971)

 

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thats it Mag, it was 2014 as to what i was saying above. Our schools shut 2 days. wouldn't be shocked to see them shut tomorrow and Thursday  

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Moderate snow.  Had a period of heavy snow with fat flakes about 30 minutes ago that helped speed up the accumulation.  Just measured 0.9" on the board.  Temp peaked at 30.2 and is back to 30.0.  Looking at radar I have no idea what to expect as to how much longer the good stuff is going to last.  Maybe another 1/2"?  Will be thrilled to reach the 2" mark.

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