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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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looks like the first of the heavy snow about to hit Chambersburg and then head up I-81 way.  Does look like it will turn into a rapid "thump" when it arrives.

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46 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


As expected.


.

CTP PTC forecasts were a 2-4 inches higher in Central Dauphin and Lebanon counties vs. Cumberland + Perry but Carlisle is sitting pretty right now.  I believe he said he was weest of town close to the ridges? 

image.png

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8 minutes ago, canderson said:

Snowing in HBG. Just walked into a movie so will be telling what’s happening when we get out at 4:30 pm. 

Hopefully David Dunn wins. 

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The Euro at 12z also brought the snow line further south & east than its run last night. The 6 inch snow line runs just a few miles to the north of I-81 & I-78, & the 4 inch line runs across the turnpike through the LSV.

 

2F65C626-BF47-4ED5-9E28-F69CE7EBC58D.png

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This opening salvo of snowfall is pretty impressive in the Altoona-Bedford-Mount Union-Huntingdon region, heading for State College. Already a coating on all surfaces including the streets and large aggregates. 

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Nothing here yet, but the temp did drop to 33, and the overcast is thicker because it got notably darker in the past half hour. Per radar it looks like it shouldn't be much longer...

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

This opening salvo of snowfall is pretty impressive in the Altoona-Bedford-Mount Union-Huntingdon region, heading for State College. Already a coating on all surfaces including the streets and large aggregates. 

I was just looking at the radar, in and around Huntingdon Country blew up nicely. I went to school at Juniata, so I still always root for that area because I spent 4 winters up there. 

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They just dropped the warnings for LSV.   Surprising this late.  If anything the trends have been pro snow the last few hours.  Dp's are below forecasted.

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5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

They just dropped the warnings for LSV.   Surprising this late.  If anything the trends have been pro snow the last few hours.  Dp's are below forecasted.

I see that. They dropped them for Schuyllkill County as well.

If this ends up being the final result then this really turns into a non-event. We've done better in moisture starved clippers...lol

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
  inches, with with areas of sleet and freezing rain. Ice
  accumulations of a tenth of an inch or less expected.

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3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I see that. They dropped them for Schuyllkill County as well.

If this ends up being the final result then this really turns into a non-event. We've done better in moisture starved clippers...lol

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4
  inches, with with areas of sleet and freezing rain. Ice
  accumulations of a tenth of an inch or less expected.

You probably did better Thursday

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9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

They just dropped the warnings for LSV.   Surprising this late.  If anything the trends have been pro snow the last few hours.  Dp's are below forecasted.

Yes, very surprised this late. They should at least let things play out a little more. I just hope it doesn’t cause a problem on the roads with general public thinking it won’t be so bad.

This will make it more fun when they bump it back up in a few hours.

  • Haha 1

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3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

You probably did better Thursday

Nope. Ended up with about a half inch to three quarter inch.

 

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Assuming their forecast doesn't verify, this will probably qualify as the biggest bust in a few years since the "We all blew this forecast" call from several years ago, in which PennLive called every red tagger on Earth for a statement. 

I wonder if CTP would be willing to perform an autopsy. I know this is the hill I will die on, but the public stance on meteorologists is bad when they're right, I feel like it would help their perception with the public if they would admit and explain a blown call a little better when they do. Not that anybody would read it.

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6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

They just dropped the warnings for LSV.   Surprising this late.  If anything the trends have been pro snow the last few hours.  Dp's are below forecasted.

Dew point temps at the surface are not going to be what the issue is - it’s going to be the upper air temps by the time the main precipitation actually arrives.  The 10:1 maps are printing out snow totals for the area that they just dropped the warning for that are several inches higher than how things are looking like they will play out (12z Euro Kutchera has MDT at 1” snow total for example).  What was supposed to be the front end thump for LSV has ended up further away from the low and is well north than what models were showing prior to this morning.  What was supposed to be the start of heavy snow around here by 2-3 pm models like HRRR runs today don’t have arriving until 7-8pm with warm air aloft right on the doorstep.

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Just now, djr5001 said:

Dew point temps at the surface are not going to be what the issue is - it’s going to be the upper air temps by the time the main precipitation actually arrives.  The 10:1 maps are printing out snow totals for the area that they just dropped the warning for that are several inches higher than how things are looking like they will play out (12z Euro Kutchera has MDT at 1” snow total for example).  What was supposed to be the front end thump for LSV has ended up further away from the low and is well north than what models were showing prior to this morning.  What was supposed to be the start of heavy snow around here by 2-3 pm models like HRRR runs today don’t have arriving until 7-8pm with warm air aloft right on the doorstep.

This is a good analysis. I was thinking along those lines, myself. The main slug of precipitation is still out in West Virginia, Ohio, and Kentucky.

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

This is a good analysis. I was thinking along those lines, myself. The main slug of precipitation is still out in West Virginia, Ohio, and Kentucky.

Yea and I think we will still get a few hours of good snow before mixing issues but at that point even 2-4” around I-81 corridor and 1-2” closer to turnpike without significant ice issues looking like they will be a factor anymore it will be below warning criteria.

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11 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Dew point temps at the surface are not going to be what the issue is - it’s going to be the upper air temps by the time the main precipitation actually arrives.  The 10:1 maps are printing out snow totals for the area that they just dropped the warning for that are several inches higher than how things are looking like they will play out (12z Euro Kutchera has MDT at 1” snow total for example).  What was supposed to be the front end thump for LSV has ended up further away from the low and is well north than what models were showing prior to this morning.  What was supposed to be the start of heavy snow around here by 2-3 pm models like HRRR runs today don’t have arriving until 7-8pm with warm air aloft right on the doorstep.

Most agreed except that everyone keeps saying that DP's are not the issue but if it is not below freezing at the surface it can snow forever and is just going to melt on the roads except in the heaviest bands...that is why I keep referencing DP's. Most of the LSV has not had 5" or more on Kuchera for a day or two but we were progged to get so much sleet that the WSW might have worked out.  HRRR is progging much lower qpf's all together now and that probably played into it.  HRRR delayed the arrival of heavy snow to 5-7PM almost 12 hours ago so if that had dropped it this AM it would have seemingly made more sense but not a big deal either way. 

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Wow...while not totally shocking, it is pretty surprising to see the pendulum swing back so quickly.  For my point and click they have me as 1-3" this afternoon and 1-2" this evening before a mix later this evening, and then a change to plain rain overnight.  First time for plain rain alone with no other ptypes.

BTW, the radar shows the darker greens over me right now and I have literally nothing falling from the sky!  I thought for sure that would be heavy snow and it would start instantly since I had the snow falling earlier with light blue over me.  Go figure.  Temp back up to 34.5.

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I can agree with the downgrade on the southern tier counties.. Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster, maybe Cumberland. But I probably would've rode out the other LSV counties, I still think they get somewhat close to the 5" threshold (3-4" or so) plus the dual impact with the mixed precipitation. 

Keeping an eye on HRRR trends, I guess we'll see if it ends up being correct on running the low right through the southern half of PA to NJ. That's quite far to the NW, and it still delivered said 3-4 in around H-burg up through Voyagers neck of the woods before changing to sleet in those areas as of the 18z run. 

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